Wave? In Eastern Caribbean

[Dean4Storms]

I see the CMC is backing off on this system, still think it bears watching though.

[wxman57]

Its obvious that the best model in this situation is the M8B (Magic 8 Ball)

"Magic 8 Ball, will this system form?"
"Yes"

My Magic 8 Ball says "No"

[Aric Dunn]

Ok time to start paying a little closer attention to that wave... a appears to be forming Low about 10n and 50 west.. and a upper high is on top of it.. moisture is ok but could be better..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

[DrewFL]

The 12Z CMC run is now back on this fairly strong.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Aric Dunn]

The 12Z CMC run is now back on this fairly strong.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

we dont want that to happen.. gulf very warm... that would be not so good thing.. but its still way out and its the cmc.. just need to watch the short term here.. to see what happens

[DrewFL]

Not what we want.....absolutely not! Hopefully just the rain for the Lake O area.

[Aric Dunn]

205 discussion

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 5N46W 22N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED INVERTED V-SHAPE TITLING
EWD WITH LATITUDE...DECIDED TO INCREASE AMPLIFICATION AND TILT
BASED ON THIS STRUCTURE. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY
A SMALL PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 43W-46W
...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. GFS HAS THIS WAVE INITIALIZED WELL
AND SHOWS IT MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUN BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

[Aric Dunn]

system becoming better organized.. this afternoon.. with a low beginning to take shape near 50 w and 10 north.. i expect this to be our next invest tomorrow...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html .

may also see a possible TC sooner rather than later

[tailgater]

Yeah I saw that, we'll have to wait and see if convection forms near that center and maintains it's self for a while. No recent Q-scats.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah I saw that, we'll have to wait and see if convection forms near that center and maintains it's self for a while. No recent Q-scats.

Nice Upper ridge .. forming over it.... conditions are favorable...

[wxman57]

Looks like a little mid-level spin embedded in the ITCZ. It's trajectory would take it inland into South America in the next 24 hours. And wind shear will be steadily increasing west of 50W. Finally, no deep convection. Not something to ignore as long as there is some mid-level rotation, but development chances seem remote given the soon-to-be proximity to land and/or increasing wind shear.

[jrod]

It still has a ways to go before I'd consider it an invest. The wave itself looks like it will make to the islands and beyond, but for the moment I don't see any signs that significant development is imminent. I think this is the deepest wave we have seen all season.

[jrod]

Correct me if Im wrong, but doesn't the wave axis extend north to maybe 20N. I suspect somewhere further north may see a flare up before the waves dissapates.

[jaxfladude]

I thought this season was supposed to be a dud...

[AnnularCane]

:grr: I thought this season was supposed to be a dud...

Who told you that?

[vaffie]

The Canadian model has adjusted the track of the low that it predicts to form out of this wave to the south--closing it off after it crosses the western third of Cuba, heading WNW into the Gulf of Mexico. The other models still do not seem to predict development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

On Monday and Tuesday, the currently unsupportive upper-level wind environment over the inverted v wave may change to an upper level high over the eastern and then central Caribbean.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds48.aspx
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds72.aspx

[cycloneye]

DISCUSSION...LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS TO BEGIN VEERING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...HERALDING THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WHOSE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. RAIN RATE
PRODUCTS SHOWED LITTLE PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM THE CLOUDS IN
THE WAVE NORTH OF 15 NORTH AND SATELLITE PICTURES DID NOT SHOW
VERY MUCH HIGH CLOUD ACTIVITY NORTH OF ABOUT 16 DEGREES NORTH
EXCEPT FROM THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER PUERTO RICO BETWEEN
11 AM AND 12 PM TODAY. THE WAVE HAS SOME MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THEN...A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF DUST
WHICH CAN BE SEEN EAST OF A LINE FROM 28 NORTH 45.5 WEST TO 10
NORTH 62 WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE A LITTLE ON TUESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. AS FAR AS RAINFALL...NONE OF THE WAVES SHOULD DO
MUCH MORE THAN ENHANCE THE NORMAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEST AND THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN THE EAST. THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY NOTICE THE WAVES MORE DUE TO THEIR
PARTICULARLY DRY NATURE.

Hey MJ (caribepr),I dont see any washout for next week as the above discussion from the San Juan NWS says.So enjoy it all in Culebra with your friends.Yes,some showers can move thru,but by any means it will be impediment to the vacationers there.

[canegrl04]

The Canadian model has adjusted the track of the low that it predicts to form out of this wave to the south--closing it off after it crosses the western third of Cuba, heading WNW into the Gulf of Mexico. The other models still do not seem to predict development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

On Monday and Tuesday, the currently unsupportive upper-level wind environment over the inverted v wave may change to an upper level high over the eastern and then central Caribbean.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds48.aspx
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds72.aspx

The Canadian model has a chance to shine if it comes to fruition.They did well with Katrina.I will put more trust in them if they get this one right.If not,I guess none of the models are good at prediction more than 24 hours out

[vaffie]

Part of Miami Forecast Discussion


WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUING AN ESE WIND FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUE OR WED. HOWEVER...IF YOU LOOK AT THE 700-850MB WIND PATTERN IT DOES NOT MATCH WELL WITH THE WAVE AXIS. WIND FLOW AT THIS LEVEL SHOWS A LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE NOW CROSSING THE ISLANDS. IN COLLABORATION WITH TAFB...IT HAS BEEN ASSESSED THAT THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF A REFLECTION AT LOWER LEVELS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IN FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES ALONG...GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/MID LEVEL INDUCED TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE ACTUAL WAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TUE/WED...THOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE MID WEEK. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY EAST COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF MORE CONVERGENCE ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY.

[storms in NC]

Lets say that this wave makes it to a TS or even a Cat 2. Tell me where would it go? By looking at this and the above maps it would have a hard time going any where. Maybe I am reading it wrong.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html