Wave? In Eastern Caribbean

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks Interesting. Something to watch. After all, oceanic
heat content is high.

Some development may be possible.

But I am an amateur, so please don't blast me
to shreds for my fascinating forecasts.

[caribepr]

Hey MJ (caribepr),I dont see any washout for next week as the above discussion from the San Juan NWS says.So enjoy it all in Culebra with your friends.Yes,some showers can move thru,but by any means it will be impediment to the vacationers there.

Sounds good to me! Camping in mud is just not as fun

I was sort of hoping for a decent rain out of it though...the gardens love it when that happens.

[Nimbus]

The models don't have much detail to work with yet. This is only a dry wave at the moment with no low level center. The new trough that is dropping in has reduced the likelyhood of surface development.

The trough would have to cut off into a low and roll out of the way if high pressure was going to build over a surface feature.

I remember when Katrina was a naked swirl near Puerto Rico nobody had a good handle on track or intensity and that system had at least a storm relative LLC.

[vaffie]

Tropical weather discussion

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 18N51N 12N56W 5N59W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[vaffie]

Movie of the Canadian model--has it forming a low pressure in the Bahamas on Tuesday then drifting due westward towards the Texas/Mexico border

http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang ... 00Z%20ANIM

[vaffie]

My eyes are probably deceiving me--it's very late, but I think there's a clear low to mid-level cloud rotation at about 12N 67W that's become visible over the last two hours now that the clouds in that area are increasing. Of course, it remains to be seen whether it's still detectable tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html

[marcane_1973]

Will not have a chance. Any convection that can get started will just get torn apart. Way too much shear in almost every direction out ahead of that wave for any development. When we see the next big pattern change things could get interesting. My guess is a storm forming by early to mid August and in my opinion unless we see a lot of storms form in August and September this will just be an average year as far as #s go.

[xironman]

I think there's a clear low to mid-level cloud rotation at about 12N 67W

Did you mean 22N? I don't see much at 12N.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

More Convection. Looking better this morning.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF
But not that much convection.
Fascinating to look at though.

[cycloneye]

Hey MJ (caribepr),I dont see any washout for next week as the above discussion from the San Juan NWS says.So enjoy it all in Culebra with your friends.Yes,some showers can move thru,but by any means it will be impediment to the vacationers there.

Sounds good to me! Camping in mud is just not as fun

I was sort of hoping for a decent rain out of it though...the gardens love it when that happens.

The wave has flared up today as it interacts with the TUTT trough to it's Northwest.Nothing to worrie about in terms of this being a organized system,but your wish for more decent rain to the gardens will come.But after this wave moves away dry weather is ahead for the rest of the week so the campers can enjoy.

[wxman57]

The southern part of the wave across the Caribbean is running into some very strong wind shear as it tracks westward at 12-15 mph. Chances of development are pretty close to zero. It'll track into Central America and out into the Pacific.

What the Canadian model has been overdeveloping (almost certainly) is the northern part of this wave as it interacts with an upper-level low abut 500 miles ESE of Bermuda. The upper low is moving WSW as the northern part of the wave moves westward. There are actually a few thunderstorms near the upper low at 31N/57W. So if you want to watch this wave, look north. Forget the Caribbean part.

Oh, and today, the Canadian model develops a weaker low and moves it into SW Louisiana on Thursday morning. It's really lost, folks. Don't ever trust the Canadian model for tropical systems (or the NAM).

[vaffie]

I had meant 12N 64W. Sorry I made a mistake. Now 65W, Sorry to disagree with everyone, but even with the shear, I think a center is trying to organize right now. I agree with the assessment that the Canadian is developing the northern half of the wave into that low and that it is now progged to head towards the Tx/La border--there's no arguing with that. But simply looking at the visible satellite loop, it's clear to see a developing circulation. I agree that it's being hit by shear, but shear can sometimes help lift too, increase convection, thereby drop pressures.

[Aric Dunn]

although i agree slightly with wxman on the shear being strong in th carrib.... the only thing is that .. that portion of the wave is a more well defined and is a bit stronger .. as the wave approaches hispanola it will likely break it two pieces.. im still going to wait .. I do not see a Low forming yet.. but does not mean it wont.. as of right now.. i would put my bets in he western carrib when it get over there... or if the wave does split off and the ull continues to move WSW then the northern part would likely see a better upper environment ...

[wxman57]

although i agree slightly with wxman on the shear being strong in th carrib.... the only thing is that .. that portion of the wave is a more well defined and is a bit stronger .. as the wave approaches hispanola it will likely break it two pieces.. im still going to wait .. I do not see a Low forming yet.. but does not mean it wont.. as of right now.. i would put my bets in he western carrib when it get over there... or if the wave does split off and the ull continues to move WSW then the northern part would likely see a better upper environment ...

I believe that's exactly what I said - ignore the bottom part of the wave in the Caribbean, it's in a high-shear environment until it reaches Central America. Look to the northern part across the northern Caribbean/Bahamas where it'll be interacting with the upper low in a lower-shear environment. Chances of development there are still low, though.

By the way, there are two topics on this wave still, both at the top of the discussion list. This wave in the eastern Caribbean IS the system the Canadian model now develops in the Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

although i agree slightly with wxman on the shear being strong in th carrib.... the only thing is that .. that portion of the wave is a more well defined and is a bit stronger .. as the wave approaches hispanola it will likely break it two pieces.. im still going to wait .. I do not see a Low forming yet.. but does not mean it wont.. as of right now.. i would put my bets in he western carrib when it get over there... or if the wave does split off and the ull continues to move WSW then the northern part would likely see a better upper environment ...

I believe that's exactly what I said - ignore the bottom part of the wave in the Caribbean, it's in a high-shear environment until it reaches Central America. Look to the northern part across the northern Caribbean/Bahamas where it'll be interacting with the upper low in a lower-shear environment. Chances of development there are still low, though.

By the way, there are two topics on this wave still, both at the top of the discussion list. This wave in the eastern Caribbean IS the system the Canadian model now develops in the Gulf.

yeah .. i just left open the possibility that in the western caribb.. it may run into a better environment... i say this because this wave is quite a bit stronger than the past few waves and has a well defined signature.. even in the carrib.. so it may have a better chance in the western carrib.. but yeah otherwise i agree..

[cycloneye]

STRONGLY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20N55W TO NEAR TRINIDAD WAS
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS CLEARLY SHOW A WINDSHIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.
THE 1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. THE WAVE IS COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH DIFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120-180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD PUERTO RICO BY 24 HOURS.



2 PM Discussion by TPC.

[gatorcane]

this must be what the CMC was picking up on a couple of days ago. Let's just see if something does form out of this. I would give the CMC much kudos if it does....

[caribepr]

All I know is...our skies cleared into typical beautiful blues, but the radar shows we are about to get some weather (of course we are! I just put laundry in), coming into the area over the VI's. Oh well - at least all the holiday makers here have had a fine morning and afternoon, which didn't look to be the case early this morning. Wave on (this wave, not *that* wave - or this part of that wave...it's getting confusing, Luis! The train is rolling along).

[jrod]

I dont see any signs of rotation and the shear is not going to allow anything in the short time. Right now south and a little west, and north of Hispanola do not look unfavorable for development by my amatuer eyes, by the time the wave gets there those conditions will likely change. Another quiet day in the tropics.

[vaffie]

The latest visible satellite pictures look like clouds in the north and east are trying to wrap around a center at 67W and 13N. Experiencing significant shear however.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html