Summertime and severe weather

[CrazyC83]

It seems that the atmosphere doesn't want to do much lately, as there have been only a handful of confirmed tornadoes and scattered severe weather. Is it normal to have such a long lull in severe weather events in July? There hasn't even been a MDT risk day in July so far.

How many major outbreaks have there been in July or August?

[WindRunner]

I feel like this is a pop quiz

Yeah, it's normal, though it does seem to be a bit to the extreme recently. Typically the lull would be starting now and "ending" in about five or six weeks, slowly building into September for the fall season.

As for major outbreaks in July or August, I'm sure the WP pages would help you with that

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _outbreaks
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... cho_events

Derecho events are of the most prominence during this time of year, so anything significant that would be to occur over the next few weeks would most likely be a derecho. Models have been playing up on this too, I've seen the GFS hint towards a couple of noteable derechos in the OH/PA/NY-ish region after the past couple heat waves, though neither actually occured. Decent line of severe happened at the end of June, and just some popcorn and pulse convection earlier this week.

Needless to say, it's quite boring for now . . .

[CrazyC83]

The SPC seems to think of one possibly happening this Wednesday into Friday (July 18-20)...that would be funny if July 20 had something since that was the only day during that week last year without a significant severe weather event...