Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

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Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#1 Postby arlwx » Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:01 am

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L16665979.htm

Warming may bring hurricanes to Mediterranean
16 Jul 2007 10:05:33 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Ben Hirschler

LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - Global warming could trigger hurricanes, or tropical cyclones, over the Mediterranean sea, threatening one of the world's most densely populated coastal regions, according to European scientists.

Hurricanes currently form out in the tropical Atlantic and rarely reach Europe, but a new study shows a 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in average temperatures could set them off in the enclosed Mediterranean in future.

"This is the first study to detect this possibility," lead researcher Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain, told Reuters on Monday.

"Most models in our study show increasing storm intensity and if you combine this with rising sea levels, as are projected, this could be damaging for many coastal settlements."

As well as being home to millions, the Mediterranean coast is also a major centre of tourism, which would be under threat.

Factors influencing hurricanes include warm sea surface temperatures and atmospheric instability. In the past, they have been confined to a limited number of regions, such as the north Atlantic and north Pacific, where they are known as typhoons.

Recently, however, they have been forming in unusual places, which Gaertner sees as a clear danger signal.

In 2004, Hurricane Catarina formed in the south Atlantic and hit land in southern Brazil. A year later, Hurricane Vince formed next to the Madeira Islands and became the first to make landfall in Spain.

In a paper published in the American Geophysical Union Journal, Gaertner and colleagues from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, used a range of regional climate models to assess the chance of similar events in the Mediterranean.

They found rising temperatures pointed to increasing storm intensity and, in the case of the most sensitive computer model, a likelihood of strong hurricanes.

Gaertner said a large number of uncertainties remained and it was not yet possible to say which parts of the Mediterranean would be hardest hit. He also believes there is time to avoid the worst-case scenario by working to limit global warming.

"This is a big threat but I think we have time to avoid it, if we cut emissions of greenhouse gases," Gaertner said.

A United Nations climate panel, drawing on the work of 2,500 scientists, said this year that the "best estimate" was that temperatures would rise 1.8-4.0 Celsius this century.

Most experts say emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels in power plants, factories and cars, are the principal reason for rising temperatures.
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Berwick Bay

Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#2 Postby Berwick Bay » Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:14 am

What a good example of over-the-top, cheap, pseudo science, designed to provoke fear and get a political outcome instead of to enlighten or inform. A THREE DEGREE RISE IN CELSIUS is huge! I don't think that serious climatologists are talking about anything of the sort (at least in this century anyway). This is a good example of tabloid journalism of the science variety.
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Berwick Bay

Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#3 Postby Berwick Bay » Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:19 am

Perhaps I should qualify my statement a little. I suppose this UN Panel must include serious scientists. But to give a 4 degree Celsius temp rise as a possibility for this century, seems out of whack to me, and something designed more to frighten and to get desired legislation passed rather than to present a real possibility.
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:33 am

There is no way this planet could warm up 2.5-5c by 2100. It hardly warmed up .6c since 1900 coming out of a ice age for crying out load. We have not warmed at all since 98, been mostly stable since then. Really to tell you the truth, med storms do form some times, but they are rare. In a slight warm up could help. But I don't expect any where near what the UN/IPCC thinks.
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#5 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:49 am

Berwick Bay wrote:What a good example of over-the-top, cheap, pseudo science, designed to provoke fear and get a political outcome instead of to enlighten or inform. A THREE DEGREE RISE IN CELSIUS is huge! I don't think that serious climatologists are talking about anything of the sort (at least in this century anyway). This is a good example of tabloid journalism of the science variety.


3 degrees C is just barely over the center of the best estimate range for the end of this century according to the IPCC FAR.
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#6 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:21 am

I believe it could happen. Dont we already have subtropical storms that dont get named there? Vince probably could have survived a couple months earlier.
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#7 Postby Aslkahuna » Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:49 pm

In other words, they expect to Med to warm to the mid 20's C by 2100? Atmospheric warming alone isn't going to result in hurricanes in the Med. You need that warm water too.

Steve
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#8 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:52 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:In other words, they expect to Med to warm to the mid 20's C by 2100? Atmospheric warming alone isn't going to result in hurricanes in the Med. You need that warm water too.

Steve


Yeah, that makes me somewhat skeptical too. Plus there just isn't a lot of open-water room in the Med for something serious to spin up. Odds are any system trying to form crosses some coast somewhere before it's gotten too organized.

I'll reserve judgment until I can read the publication of the research, though.
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#9 Postby Aslkahuna » Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:30 pm

There's also a matter of latitude since the Med is mostly in the mid to upper 30's in latitude and thus one runs into problems with shear not to mention hot very dry air from the Sahara which would certainly put the kibosh on any development.

Steve
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:04 am

Furthermore, even with favorable conditions the storm would have to be small and a slow mover because it would run into land very easily.

Image

Compared to the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

Image
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#11 Postby alan1961 » Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:19 pm

Well guys here in England in 1987 we had a major storm that had hurricane force gusts that crossed the southern part of the country and one meteorolgist will always remember this event with embarrasment has a member of the public phoned the BBC tv channel saying " I here theres a possible hurricane on its way " and he told her not to be alarmed and that it was just a little deeper depression than normal, next morning southern England woke up to devastation and the meteorolgist certainly had egg on his face for a long long while after! :lol:

this wasn't a storm that had tropical origins, it formed in the bay of biscay to the west of france and approached south west england strengthing as it did so.

the moral of this story is, mother nature dosent need tropical waters or semi tropics to unleash powerful storms, she does what she wants where she wants at any time.

http://www.stvincent.ac.uk/Resources/We ... oct87.html
Last edited by alan1961 on Tue Jul 17, 2007 7:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#12 Postby Aslkahuna » Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:26 pm

I saw a couple of winter storms like that that hit the UK with hurricane force winds in the 1970's when I was a USAF forecaster in Germany.

Steve
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#13 Postby alan1961 » Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:29 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:I saw a couple of winter storms like that that hit the UK with hurricane force winds in the 1970's when I was a USAF forecaster in Germany.

Steve

Thats some evidence in the above post as well steve :wink:
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#14 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 18, 2007 10:02 pm

Even if the Med were to warm up there could not be hurricanes there because of all the dry air from Africa. Having been to the Med area several times durning the summer you are lucky to see a shower let alone a major storm. Just another attempt to scare people.....MGC
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Re: Reuters: Possibility of Mediterranean Storms in Future

#15 Postby caneman » Wed Jul 18, 2007 10:21 pm

yes indeed scare tactic. It's gonne hard for GW believers to win someone over to there way of thinking, with scare tactics, hype and/or or intimidation.
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