Excellent analysis on steering curents by Jeff Masters 7/27

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Frank2
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Re: Jeff Masters- Major steering current shift.

#21 Postby Frank2 » Sat Jul 14, 2007 11:35 am

Well, if everything is behind by one month, that's a good thing - by the time the active pattern sets up, it'll be time for the northern jet stream to drop southward...
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Re: Jeff Masters- Major steering current shift.

#22 Postby Steve » Sat Jul 14, 2007 3:55 pm

>>it would be nice if jeff masters looked at more than just 1 model run of GFS. the past 2 runs of that model (06Z and 12Z) show a big trough locking in the west/central atlantic in the long run. here's the latest 384hr GFS

Well the thing with the GFS and its predecessor models was always a bias toward troughiness in the western Atlantic regardless of whether it was continuing a pattern or if it was looking to break down the strongest of basin-wide ridges. That's always been the nature of that beast.

FWIW, I know they had supposedly addressed some of the calculation issues but I haven't read any layperson's analysis of whether or not they have been successful in eliminating the bias.

As for the pattern shift, it's always just a matter of time. Weather moves, pulses and evolves (specific and seasonal).

Steve
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Re: Jeff Masters- Major steering current shift.

#23 Postby philnyc » Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:16 pm

Here's the GFS ensemble mean "spaghetti plot" from the 12Z run today:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Just follow the progression from now 'til the end of July.
You can see what Masters is talking about - by the end of the month the troughing that has been over the eastern U.S. shifts northeastward and flattens out. Just follow the 576 dk line (red line). But I would agree with the guy (sorry forgot who you were) that a pattern that has set up in June rarely breaks during July/August. NOT never, but rarely. If it does, then Masters should be right. We can only wait and see. This MREF seems to get more and more accurate, but it has made some really bad calls this year, especially 3 weeks or more out. If the current pattern remains, then obviously we'll see more flooding rains in the midwest and higher chances for any hurricanes that develop to turn northward before getting to the central Gulf.


NOTE: The above MREF plot is not available during certain hours of the day while Penn State is updating it. You can always go here to find the last available run:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ewallmref.html
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:47 am

It will be interesting to see what Jeff Masters says later today about the pattern shift as he will talk more about this theme today.
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Re: Jeff Masters- Major steering current shift.

#25 Postby MWatkins » Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:54 am

Just a note...remember 2004?

We had a horribly rainy July down here...and into August we had a huge trough along the EC...2 orders of magnitude deeper than normal...which created an October like hit from Charley.

Once Charley cleared the pattern...ridging took over and stayed in place more or less through October. Hence...Frances, Jeanne and Ivan.

There are 2 lessons from the 2004 season...

Even if the trough stays in place all season...systems in the deep tropics could scoot under the ridge and come up through the western Caribbean just like Charley did...

Second...weather patterns aren't permanent features. Even if a ridge builds for a week...if it happens at just he right time it could get a storm across the Atlantic...

MW
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Re: Jeff Masters- Major steering current shift.

#26 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:10 am

Question from a interested amateur:

Any chance, with tail end of trough laying back in Western Gulf, that the enxt week may feature genesis of tropical/sub-tropical system from non-tropical sources? I know the last major storm to directly hit Houston way back in 1983, Alicia, developed on the end of a decaying front.

Western GOMEX is convectively active, and I believe trough is forecast to lift out. Could it leave a convective complex behind?
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Re: Jeff Masters- Major steering current shift.

#27 Postby boca » Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:12 am

Here's the latest info on Jeff Master's Blog for 07/16/07.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

He's saying between 12 and 14 name storms this year in total including andrea and Barry. he thinks the pattern shift will occur next week and could last a few days to a few months.
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Re: Jeff Masters- Major steering current shift.

#28 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:24 am

Yesterday was the anniversary of the only tropical cyclone I ever flew in.

Not with the 53rd WRS. American Eagle. IAH to DFW as Hurricane Claudette approached the coast.


It was raining in Houston, but the wind wasn't too bad yet. I was flying to BOS via DFW for my late grnadmother's funeral. It wasn't that sad, she lived to 98 years of age, and had lived a pretty good life. Mild turbulence, then we broke out into blue skies half way to Dallas.
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Re: J.Masters-Major steering current shift=7/16/07 update posted

#29 Postby Kennethb » Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:28 am

I concur and and am a little concerned with these troughs coming unseasonaly this far south in July. Another trough is expected to aproach the norther Gulf coast this weekend. With some much energy around in the middle of July, and a season more conducive for development, some type of tropical system devlopment is not out of the question.
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Re: Jeff Masters- Major steering current shift.

#30 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:54 am

boca wrote:Here's the latest info on Jeff Master's Blog for 07/16/07.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

He's saying between 12 and 14 name storms this year in total including andrea and Barry. he thinks the pattern shift will occur next week and could last a few days to a few months.



a few days to a few months? That means he doesn't know
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Re: J.Masters-Major steering current shift=7/16/07 update posted

#31 Postby cpdaman » Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:59 am

exactamundo
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#32 Postby jrod » Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:10 pm

Does anyone know what Bastardi is saying lately? I know he is unpopular on this board but I am sure he has something to say about what the pattern may be setting up for the heart of hurricane season.
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Re:

#33 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:18 pm

jrod wrote:Does anyone know what Bastardi is saying lately? I know he is unpopular on this board but I am sure he has something to say about what the pattern may be setting up for the heart of hurricane season.


Bastardi says overall numbers near normal for the season, but that most storms will form close enough to US that there should be an increased landfall threat, especially from Central Gulf through Florida East Coast. Lower chance for Carolinas or New England, but he says it only takes one to break away from the pack. He thinks strongests torms eastern Gulf, but he says several analog years that had tropical storms with heavy rain in Texas, which would be a problem. He thinks in 2 weeks pattern with big shear over islands relaxes with TUTT pulling further North, so there is still a shear zone down into the Eastern Caribbean, but waves will pass through fairly quickly, and he predicted today (on video) generally anti-cyclonic flow at 200 mb for Western Caribbean up into Eastern Gulf and Bahamas area, and notes heat potential in Eastern Gulf similar to 2005.
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Re: J.Masters-Major steering current shift=7/16/07 update posted

#34 Postby windstorm99 » Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:19 pm

Thanks guys for adding Jeff masters 2nd half of july outlook.

Windshear indeed looks pretty favorable in 96hrs across most areas across the tropical atlantic.

Image
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Re:

#35 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:25 pm

jrod wrote:Does anyone know what Bastardi is saying lately? I know he is unpopular on this board but I am sure he has something to say about what the pattern may be setting up for the heart of hurricane season.


These maps explain pretty well what Bastardi and Accuweather are predicting this year..

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 7/cone.gif

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... mpacts.gif

Basically, most areas have an above normal risk of a landfalling storm (except the NE United States), so everyone should be on guard this season.
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Re: Jeff Masters- Major steering current shift.

#36 Postby philnyc » Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:36 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
boca wrote:Here's the latest info on Jeff Master's Blog for 07/16/07.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

He's saying between 12 and 14 name storms this year in total including andrea and Barry. he thinks the pattern shift will occur next week and could last a few days to a few months.



a few days to a few months? That means he doesn't know


LOL
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Re: J.Masters-Major steering current shift=7/16/07 update posted

#37 Postby Frank2 » Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:55 pm

Yesterday was the anniversary of the only tropical cyclone I ever flew in.


Ed, like you, the anniversary of the only tropical cyclone I ever flew in is soon (August 16), during Dennis (1981), as it was crossing Cuba (we were within sight of the coast, but, were not allowed to fly over land), so, it was a long ride around the island...

I happened to be asked at the last minute, so, Lucy Ricardo, Beaver Cleaver or Opie Taylor-like I thought a good plan was to tell my Dad that I was at work eating a liverwurst sandwich - until he happened to call to ask me something about dinner, and was told, "No, he's flying in the hurricane".

My poor Dad aged about 10 years that day...
Last edited by Frank2 on Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: J.Masters-Major steering current shift=7/16/07 update posted

#38 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:01 pm

Well, I was a pax on an American Eagle prop job puddle-jumper. But looking out the window at the prop, with water streaking the windows, I was thinking, as close as you'll ever come to a ride-along in a WC-130J.

Turbulence wasn't bad at all. I flew once during Spring storms from DFW to LFT in an American Eagle prop-job that couldn't climb above the storms, and that was most unpleasantly turbulent.


Frank2 wrote:
Yesterday was the anniversary of the only tropical cyclone I ever flew in.


I think the anniversary of my sole flight is August 16 - in Dennis (1981) as it was crossing Cuba (we were within sight of the coast, but, were not allowed to fly over land), so, it was a long ride around the island...

I happened to be asked at the last minute, so, Beaver Cleaver or Opie Taylor-like I thought a good plan was to tell my Dad that I was at work eating a liverwurst sandwich - until he happened to call to ask me something about dinner, and was told, "No, he's flying in the hurricane".

My poor Dad aged about 10 years that day...
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Re: Re:

#39 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:02 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jrod wrote:Does anyone know what Bastardi is saying lately? I know he is unpopular on this board but I am sure he has something to say about what the pattern may be setting up for the heart of hurricane season.


These maps explain pretty well what Bastardi and Accuweather are predicting this year..

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 7/cone.gif

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... mpacts.gif

Basically, most areas have an above normal risk of a landfalling storm (except the NE United States), so everyone should be on guard this season.


Gotta love how they include the coast of GA in the Greatest which gets hit about every 20 years..
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Re: J.Masters-Major steering current shift=7/16/07 update posted

#40 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:04 pm

2 Cents:

I was here in New York for June and July and cold fronts came down from Canada very late in the season due to that trough dipping unusually deep for summer. I won't go into any GW amplitude discussion - but this is a sign of amplitude (stronger patterns). In any case, there have been numerous fronts with heavy thundershowers and a wet summer just to the north and in New England. Yesterday I drove through heavy rains in Massachusetts. If the pattern changes, it should bring the late summer/Bermuda High hot, dry pattern to the NE.


x-y-no:

I got a laugh out of the fact that the trough map that poster showed shows the LOW sliding eastward into the Atlantic as Masters suggests. (In other words proves his point).
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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