2006 Pattern Repeat?

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HURAKAN
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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:05 pm

I will only argue that June and July are not good months to talk about a hurricane season. Lets wait for August and we can talk about the rest of the season.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#42 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 11, 2007 1:45 pm

We have a *long* way to go before this season is over.

As I see it, the less cloud cover over the Atlantic Basin means more sunshine to warm the waters.....

Things can change on a dime. Wouldn't surprise me that things ramp up quickly around Aug 1st.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#43 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Jul 11, 2007 1:56 pm

It's foolish to say that a quiet July will give way to a quiet season. Inactive July's have given way to active seasons.

1990
July=3/1/0
Total=14/8/1

1991
July=0/0/0
Total=8/4/2

1992
July=0/0/0
Total=7/4/1

1993
July=0/0/0
Total=8/4/1

1994
July=0/0/0
Total=7/3/0

1995
July=4/1/0
Total=19/11/5

1996
July=2/2/1
Total=13/9/6

1997
July=3/2/0
Total=7/3/1

1998
July=1/0/0
Total=14/10/3

1999
July=0/0/0
Total=12/8/5

2000
July=0/0/0
Total=14/8/3

2001
July=0/0/0
Total=15/9/4

2002
July=1/0/0
Total=12/4/2

2003
July=2/2/0
Total=16/7/3

2004
July=1/1/1
Total=14/9/6

2005
July=5/3/2
Total=28/15/7

2006
July=1/0/0
Total=10/5/2
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#44 Postby jrod » Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:18 pm

We still have 20 days left in July, I personally would be suprised if we don't see a hurricane before the end of the month.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#45 Postby hcane27 » Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:30 pm

Since 1950 ... In the seasons with multiple July storms there have been an average of 7.9 storms during the remainder of the season. In years with no July storms there have been an average of 7.9 storms the remainder of the season. But, in years with 1 July storm, there have been an average of 10.3 storms the remainder of the season.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#46 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:58 pm

Jeff masters talks about the recurvature pattern that has been in place the past few weeks maybe coming to an end.Look for more on this on is blog this coming monday.Things could get interesting in the coming weeks if this actually comes to pass.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#47 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Jul 12, 2007 8:38 am

Not sure if anyone read my last post but jeff masters is indicateing the pattern is about to change which will allow less recurvature starting on july 23.Thoughts are welcomed.

He noted the GFS and is waiting for the data from the ECMWF to see if there together with this idea.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#48 Postby boca » Thu Jul 12, 2007 8:44 am

windstorm99 wrote:Not sure if anyone read my last post but jeff masters is indicateing the pattern is about to change which will allow less recurvature starting on july 23.Thoughts are welcomed.

He noted the GFS and is waiting for the data from the ECMWF to see if there together with this idea.

Windstorm do you have the link to Jeff Master's blog?
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#49 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Jul 12, 2007 8:47 am

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
529 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

VALID 12Z MON JUL 16 2007 - 12Z THU JUL 19 2007

00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROF OVER SERN CANADA DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE PD...BUT DIFFER ON HOW MUCH INROADS TROF MAKES INTO
NWRN US FROM PAC. GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
GEM GLOBAL THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH AS PER THE ECMWF/UKMET FOR PRELIM PROGS. USED ECMWF
DETAILS ELSEWHERE AS WELL...BASED ON STABLE SOLUTIONS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND TYPICAL STRONG PERFORMANCE DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE. GFS HAS BACKED CONSIDERABLY OFF ITS RETROGRESSION OF ATL
RIDGE INTO THE ERN US IT WAS DEPICTING 24 HRS AGO. GEM GLOBAL
STILL INSISTS ON BRINGING HURRICANE INTO SRN FL AT THE END OF THE
PD...A SOLUTION REJECTED AS AN OUTLIER DESPITE THE MODELS
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM.


Image

Personally i need more model agreement before i even begin to buy into something like that.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#50 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Jul 12, 2007 10:46 am

Thoughts are welcomed on this...
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#51 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 12, 2007 10:53 am

Are you saying that global models want to bring a hurricane into Southern Florida in the long-term? Is that what SRN FL means?
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#52 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Jul 12, 2007 10:55 am

gatorcane wrote:Are you saying that global models want to bring a hurricane into Southern Florida in the long-term? Is that what SRN FL means?



Yes that would be correct on southeast florida.But keep in mind its only one model doing this but at the same time its been very persistent showing this.Personally i need to see more model agreement before i buy into this idea.

You can find the page for the GEM model HERE.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#53 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:50 am

I don't buy it right now but the consistency is apparently there, though it is an outlier.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#54 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 12, 2007 7:46 pm

If I'm reading this correctly, the low crosses SFL into the Gulf, deepens a little then moves towards the Louisiana/Miss coast. This type of track is not that uncommon for late July early August. This is not worth getting excited about at this point, IMO.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#55 Postby benny » Thu Jul 12, 2007 9:15 pm

It is interesting that the MJO is in a similar phase to 2006 and 2007... compare:
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaf ... 0days.html (2007)

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaf ... earago.gif (2006)


It probably is no coincidence the patterns are the same. But... the question is... are the years just at a similar point and then will diverge because one had El Nino forcing and the other neutral/La Nina forcing? I would think so but ya never know :)
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#56 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:37 pm

Not surprised that the MJO is similar to 2006. This could explain the similar dry/sweeping Saharan Atlantic airmass damping the ITCZ. It could also explain the upper winds and parking subsidence over the Caribbean/GOM. Minus the weak Nino pattern, however. Global weather patterns are too complex to theorize whether this is a repeat of 2006 or not because the upper shear is obviously not from any Nino event this year. So to what extent it was last year can only be speculated, since last year's Nino was not a normal Nino.

Looking at the radar today I see the GOM has some moisture finally 'sticking' in its NW corner. Caribbean also has some moisture in the form of a weak wave passing over the Windwards. This could be the start of a shift towards primetime.
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#57 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:09 pm

"I'm not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV"


Was 2004 the season that started as dull as all get out and then early-mid August it was like a switch was thrown?


I watch enough of TWC and Dr. Lyon's tropical update (although the all global warming all the time agenda there makes me watch less than I used to- somehow I trust Dr. Gray and Dr. D'Aleo with their view that G.W. is as likely just a natural aprt of a cycle than human induced, over Dr. Cullen with her pre-doc degree in Near East Religions, especially since she wouldn't have a job at TWC if there wasn't a global warming hyseria) to know that the combined months of June and July average just a shade over 1 storm, so we're actually having a busy season, sort of.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#58 Postby jrod » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:21 pm

I've been turned off by TWC because of the global warming stuff too, my guess is since its a hot topic now they air all the gdGW hoopla for ratings. I do trust Dr. Lyons, if he wasn't there I probaly would not even watch it anymore.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#59 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:24 pm

I remember sitting at my computer on Sanibel watching Bertha form close enough to the US to be seen on radar in the Yucatan Channel. Bertha blew the GOM clear for Charley. Her east side drew heavy tropical air up from the south into Charley's path. So it could be a matter of weeks before the SST's cook up and form systems.

I totally disagree with your GW opinions - but they ask us not to debate it on the tropical board.
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Re: 2006 Pattern Repeat?

#60 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:31 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think we see something similar to 2004, suddenly a switch is thrown
on and with high heat content in the oceans and High SSTs
With ocean heat content very high I think the Caribbean
could have a very severe hurricane season. The switch
could be thrown late july or early-mid august.

Look at the Caribbean heat content it is very hot, I mean
Very Very hot folks...that means very severe hurricanes.

I think 2-3 major hurricanes will march across the Caribbean
between now and October.

Also: Why 2004?
-Many of the waves are low latitude
-Strong pattern shift Jeff Masters Talked about
-Relative quiet prior to late july
-Very high oceanic heat content focused
especially over the NW Caribbean.
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