TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC

[Andrew92]

Alright, I think we will see Cosme out of this depression today or tonight. It just looks beautiful on satellite this morning. But given the EPAC so far this year, I expect it to remain fairly weak.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

Lets all yell, Come!!!

[WmE]

Yep, it does look good. I think it will be Cosme by the next advisory.

[AnnularCane]

He is gorgeous! Come on, little guy, beat the curse!

[HURAKAN]

IT TOOK FOUR TRIES, BUT I THINK WE GOT COSME!!!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 15 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 127.5W AT 15/1500
UTC MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/
WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. UNLIKE T.D. 5-E...THIS DEPRESSION
HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED
BETWEEN TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS. THIS CONSIDERABLY HEALTHIER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITH THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATING SLIGHTLY AND CONVECTION
IMPROVING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN A WEAKENING PROCESS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO A
REGION WITH COOLER SSTS.

[cycloneye]

Remember,if the models and NRL go to name it Cosme,we in storm2k always wait for the official word from NHC.When the official word finnally comes,then this thread will be locked and a new Tropical Storm Cosme thread will be made.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, why there's not a continuation of the thread following the change in category of the storm like in old times?

[cycloneye]

Luis, why there's not a continuation of the thread following the change in category of the storm like in old times?

We are looking to see how these subforums are going to see if they stay or not.And one of the things that we want to see are different threads for a system.(Invest,TD thread,Tropical Storm thread and Hurricane thread)We are doing it at the WPAC and it is working so far.Let's see in this EPAC subforum how these changes go.

[Chacor]

925
WHXX01 KMIA 151840
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC SUN JUL 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070715 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070715 1800 070716 0600 070716 1800 070717 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 127.7W 13.6N 129.2W 14.7N 130.6W 15.6N 132.3W
BAMD 12.5N 127.7W 13.6N 129.3W 14.6N 131.1W 15.2N 133.1W
BAMM 12.5N 127.7W 13.5N 129.2W 14.4N 130.6W 15.3N 132.2W
LBAR 12.5N 127.7W 13.3N 129.0W 13.9N 130.8W 14.2N 132.9W
SHIP 35KTS 46KTS 55KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 46KTS 55KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070717 1800 070718 1800 070719 1800 070720 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 134.4W 17.7N 139.5W 19.6N 144.7W 20.9N 149.9W
BAMD 15.5N 135.3W 16.2N 140.4W 17.7N 145.2W 19.2N 148.9W
BAMM 16.0N 134.2W 17.4N 139.3W 19.1N 144.6W 20.5N 149.6W
LBAR 14.2N 135.4W 14.1N 141.0W 15.3N 146.0W 17.8N 149.6W
SHIP 56KTS 42KTS 35KTS 32KTS
DSHP 56KTS 42KTS 35KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 127.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 126.8W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 126.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 25NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Let's continue to post in this thread until it's official later at 5 PM EDT.By then the thread will be locked and a new Tropical Storm Cosme will be made.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like Cosme to me. However we have to wait 2 hours to find out. They have jumped the gun before.

If TD5-E made a miracle comeback (not likely), it would be weird seeing 05E.Dalila and 06E.Cosme being out of order...

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has it as Cosme.Looks beautiful in the pic.

[HurricaneRobert]

It's headed for Hawaii. That's too bad, because I was wishing this would see RI.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

06E.COSME

The system has retained its structural organization. In addition, the Navy site lists Cosme. We will observe an upgrade at 5 p.m. EDT. The stable air mass appears to be modifying, which could allow some intensification. It looks like TD 5E and 6E have been exhibiting a classic Fujiwhara Effect!

[AnnularCane]

It's headed for Hawaii. That's too bad, because I was wishing this would see RI.

Rhode Island?

[HURAKAN]

It's headed for Hawaii. That's too bad, because I was wishing this would see RI.

Rhode Island?

Rapid Intensification?

[MiamiensisWx]

The official agencies have listed Cosme at 65 kts (74 mph). A reputable poster has stated that it is a reflection of the ATCF database, which is utilized by the TPC-run models. Here is a quote from the original thread.

It's official in the ATCF database:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_ep062007.invest
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep062007.dat

Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF):
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/

That makes it official.

The Navy resources include the TPC, too. This data indicates an upgrade at 2:00 p.m. PDT, so I think it is time for a new thread.

[cycloneye]

Oh man,how desesperated are some to make a new thread without waiting a little bit more.The storm2k policy is to wait for the official advisory and then a new thread will be made.Time goes fast and in a few minutes,the advisory will be released.I will let this thread here without being deleited but it will be locked until it's official.In the meantime,the members can continue to make their comments in the Tropical Storm Thread.

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 162030
TCDEP1
HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
200 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2007

AFTER GOING THROUGH AN ORGANIZATIONAL LULL THIS MORNING...COSME HAS
RAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON. A DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER 1434 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE AROUND 60 KT AT THAT
TIME. SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND
COSME HAS A SMALL EYE WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING
FULLY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/10. THE HURRICANE IS
BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS STEERING
MECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT FASTER
AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE...POSSIBLY DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE THAT
THE MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING.

COSME'S INTENSITY COULD BE PEAKING...SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY BELOW 26C AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER ALONG THE
PROJECTED TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE
CYCLONE THROUGH DAY FIVE...AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER WATERS AND A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSITY
CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

ONE BIT OF TRIVIA...ONLY FOUR OTHER EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASONS
HAVE HAD THEIR FIRST HURRICANE FORM LATER THAN COSME.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.5N 131.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.9N 132.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.2N 134.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.6N 137.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 139.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 19.0N 157.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI