Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

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HouTXmetro
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Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#1 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 16, 2007 3:45 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Can something spin up from this mess? To my understanding this is how Hurricane Alicia spun up in 1983.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:24 pm

It's possible (unlikely, tho, IMO), and I believe Danny in 1997 did it as well, but one thing to remember is that TC formation in the manner of Alicia is rather rare.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#3 Postby wjs3 » Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:26 pm

...that has got to be the mother of all outflows--what's it go from Panama City almost all the way to Brownsville?

WJS3
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#4 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:39 pm

Local weather just said it "bears watching" this time of year.

Break out the bears gang.

Hey Yogi!!!!!
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#5 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:40 pm

has had a tremendous effect on normal flight routes from FL to TX. Normal paths would cross GOM to just S of LA coast, but not today. Will add a sipet from AFD fom AUS/SAN this afternoon...



000
FXUS64 KEWX 162056
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP CONVECTION OVER GULF WATERS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT TO SLOW DOWN THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD DRIFT BACK
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. INCREASED POPS TODAY OVER EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY BE REPEATED TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED
EAST OF AN EAGLE PASS TO GEORGETOWN LINE. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST DURING THE WEEK WITH DEEPER
GULF FLOW AND LIFT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE NAM MODEL EVEN SHOWS HINTS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE EAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.
WHILE GULF SST`S SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE NARROW DUE TO CONTINUED MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINS, BUT GOOD DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#6 Postby Opal storm » Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:49 pm

Doesn't look like much to me, but being in the Gulf I keep a much closer eye on these types of disturbances than those waves a thousand miles away. Things can spin up quick.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#7 Postby Sjones » Mon Jul 16, 2007 5:10 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Can something spin up from this mess? To my understanding this is how Hurricane Alicia spun up in 1983.


You are very right. That is how Alicia occured.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#8 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Jul 16, 2007 5:17 pm

That is really a very big flare up of
convection. With shear in the mid
levels that may try to prevent development
but with all that heat content perhaps something
could squeak out under the shear...
and of course if shear lessens then we could
be having a very different story...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

Shear will be the big factor here
If high shear= no development
If shear decreases = Development, possibly
signficant development.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#9 Postby canetracker » Mon Jul 16, 2007 5:51 pm

I have been watching this for a while now. This moisture streamed over our area this morning causing a sizeable amount of rain and thunderstorms. IMO, the several days of persistance is the key. With shear, it may not amount to too much but could be that some type of system is trying to spin up.
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#10 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Jul 16, 2007 5:55 pm

They do acknowledge that there is a narrow window of opportunity
for development in the official forecast pasted a few posts
above...that mid level shear keeps that window narrow-
but I am wondering is there a period within the shear period
in which a decrease in shear could lead to possible development?
Is that what is meant by "narrow window of opportunity"?
Or is the inhibitive shear expected to be continuous and
predominant through the forecast range?
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#11 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 16, 2007 6:44 pm

I still say further south... BOC
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#12 Postby EDR1222 » Mon Jul 16, 2007 6:53 pm

I definitely think it bears watching, but if I remember right, Alicia formed in an extremely very favorable environment and it was also later in the season. It was one of those situations were everything came together at the right time. Interestingly, as many on here probably already know, the rest of 1983 was very slow.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#13 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:01 pm

This does bear watching especially for those
in Texas....Now I do not see anything imminent...
but it looks pretty ominous on the infrared I posted
a few posts up this thread.

Regardless of whether it develops, it could
still be bad for flood ravaged Texas, because
additional rain does not help during floods.

What do the promets think regarding
the potential for tropical development?
There seems to be a lot going on with the shear,
and several factors are interacting...an upper level
low which is generating the convection...so what do
the proments think?
These factors got my mind confused.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#14 Postby MGC » Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:17 pm

Interesting to watch the outflow boundry trigger convection in the mid gulf.....MGC
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#15 Postby Dynamic » Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:18 pm

Maybe do not have importance, but Ramsdis change the position of the floater from the wave that was east of the Lesser Islands to the GOM.

Image
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#16 Postby Deputy Van Halen » Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:25 pm

You are very right. That is how Alicia occured.


Didn't Anita (1977) fall in the same category, too? That was a lot more powerful storm than Alicia.
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Re:

#17 Postby Sjones » Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:35 pm

Deputy Van Halen wrote:
You are very right. That is how Alicia occured.


Didn't Anita (1977) fall in the same category, too? That was a lot more powerful storm than Alicia.



Actually Anita crossed southern Florida as a disturbance and entered the GOM and made landfall in Northern Mexico. It also occured in late August. Hurricane Anita was a Cat 5 at landfall.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#18 Postby Sjones » Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm

If the shear dies down, I do believe we are in for some very serious weather here in Southeast Texas.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#19 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:42 pm

Hurricane Alicia formed after a cool front came by in 1983. The cluster of thunderstorms is worth watching. Hurricane Anita of 1977 crossed Florida and caused some high waves in Louisiana. 1983 was largely quiet due to strong wind sheer from El Nino.
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Re: Look at the North Western Gulf: Alicia type formation??

#20 Postby HeeBGBz » Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:54 pm

The weather has been wild here on the Mississippi gulf coast. Two days of heavy rain which we needed.

This was yesterdays cloud cover.

Image

Image

We had a storm this am and I thought I saw a funnel forming. The cloud had tendrils and they were getting lower and looked to be rotating. I was too busy trying to get the dogs inside to take a picture of it.

This afternoon the cloud cover changed again. While it looked less threatening, it felt somewhat expectant and the clouds layered up and it reminded me of a time before Fredrick.

Image

Image

Image
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