Repeat performance? July 17-20, Midwest - MDT risk today
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Repeat performance? July 17-20, Midwest - MDT risk today
One year ago this week was a long one with nearly continuous derechos. Could it happen again? Almost did last night in Iowa/Illinois (but the bow echo broke down) and it might happen again tonight in that area. Then the rest of the week could be interesting too...remember that most of the events last year took place in SLGT or no risk areas!
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Jul 18, 2007 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Moderate risk of severe weather today - derecho possible...
SPC AC 181237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD...NORTHEAST NEB...MUCH OF IA...AND
NORTHERN IL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WA/ID/MT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS WY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD TODAY AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO TRACK DOWN SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SD INTO IL...AND RESULT IN A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...ERN SD INTO IL/IND...
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND INTO IL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70F WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF EXTREME INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB ACROSS MUCH OF IA INTO NRN IL. WEAK
CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS AXIS UNTIL AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON...WHEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN SD/NEB. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS ACROSS IA AND INTO IL.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DERECHO EVENT ALONG THIS AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT DEPENDS ON
ORGANIZATION OF MCS...BUT MAY BE AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF OH BEFORE
19/12Z.
...WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BIGHORN MTNS AND BLACK HILLS
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. UPPER TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS WY MAY HELP TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA
RELATIVELY EARLY /18-21Z/ WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
...WA/ID/MT...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS CA AND INTO ORE/WA. A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF NV AND SOUTHERN ID
TODAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ID AND EASTERN WA. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM NJ
SOUTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID
AFTERNOON...SPREADING OFFSHORE AFTER DARK. SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
..HART/JEWELL.. 07/18/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1547Z (11:47AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 181237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD...NORTHEAST NEB...MUCH OF IA...AND
NORTHERN IL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WA/ID/MT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS WY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD TODAY AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO TRACK DOWN SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SD INTO IL...AND RESULT IN A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...ERN SD INTO IL/IND...
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND INTO IL. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70F WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF EXTREME INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB ACROSS MUCH OF IA INTO NRN IL. WEAK
CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS AXIS UNTIL AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON...WHEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN SD/NEB. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS ACROSS IA AND INTO IL.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DERECHO EVENT ALONG THIS AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT DEPENDS ON
ORGANIZATION OF MCS...BUT MAY BE AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF OH BEFORE
19/12Z.
...WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BIGHORN MTNS AND BLACK HILLS
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. UPPER TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS WY MAY HELP TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA
RELATIVELY EARLY /18-21Z/ WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
...WA/ID/MT...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS CA AND INTO ORE/WA. A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF NV AND SOUTHERN ID
TODAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ID AND EASTERN WA. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM NJ
SOUTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID
AFTERNOON...SPREADING OFFSHORE AFTER DARK. SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
..HART/JEWELL.. 07/18/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1547Z (11:47AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Repeat performance? July 17-20, Midwest - MDT risk today
First watch issued well north of the main threat area for discrete cells. I wonder if they will go PDS on the main threat area?
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF
GREEN BAY WISCONSIN TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSHKOSH WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SPREADS SEWD FROM NRN MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT/SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY
SEWD WITH SOME CELLS POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31020.
...CARBIN/WEISS
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF
GREEN BAY WISCONSIN TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSHKOSH WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SPREADS SEWD FROM NRN MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT/SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY
SEWD WITH SOME CELLS POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31020.
...CARBIN/WEISS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 181834
WOU9
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
WIC009-015-027-029-039-047-061-067-071-073-075-077-078-083-087-
089-097-115-117-131-135-137-139-141-190200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0529.070718T1840Z-070719T0200Z/
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET DODGE
DOOR FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE
KEWAUNEE LANGLADE MANITOWOC
MARATHON MARINETTE MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE
OZAUKEE PORTAGE SHAWANO
SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON WAUPACA
WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO WOOD
LMZ521-522-190200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0529.070718T1840Z-070719T0200Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE...AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARINETTE WI TO FISH CREEK WI
BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM MARINETTE WI TO FISH CREEK
WI
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 529 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 181840Z - 190200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75N GRB/GREEN BAY WI/ - 45SW OSH/OSHKOSH WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /56E RHI - 25E DLL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31020.
LAT...LON 45568688 43508798 43509037 45568937
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 529 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF
GREEN BAY WISCONSIN TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSHKOSH WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SPREADS SEWD FROM NRN MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT/SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY
SEWD WITH SOME CELLS POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31020.
...CARBIN/WEISS
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF
GREEN BAY WISCONSIN TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSHKOSH WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SPREADS SEWD FROM NRN MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT/SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY
SEWD WITH SOME CELLS POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31020.
...CARBIN/WEISS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 181834
WOU9
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
WIC009-015-027-029-039-047-061-067-071-073-075-077-078-083-087-
089-097-115-117-131-135-137-139-141-190200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0529.070718T1840Z-070719T0200Z/
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET DODGE
DOOR FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE
KEWAUNEE LANGLADE MANITOWOC
MARATHON MARINETTE MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE
OZAUKEE PORTAGE SHAWANO
SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON WAUPACA
WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO WOOD
LMZ521-522-190200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0529.070718T1840Z-070719T0200Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE...AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARINETTE WI TO FISH CREEK WI
BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM MARINETTE WI TO FISH CREEK
WI
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 529 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 181840Z - 190200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75N GRB/GREEN BAY WI/ - 45SW OSH/OSHKOSH WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /56E RHI - 25E DLL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31020.
LAT...LON 45568688 43508798 43509037 45568937
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 529 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Repeat performance? July 17-20, Midwest - MDT risk today
Quite an intense bow echo over eastern Iowa right now...
0 likes
Re: Repeat performance? July 17-20, Midwest - MDT risk today
Look at it now, this line is freaky. There must be some very bad thunderstorms occuring right now over those areas. The lightning must be fantastic.
0 likes
-
Pebbles
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1994
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
- Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)
Re: Repeat performance? July 17-20, Midwest - MDT risk today
Update from New Lenox (just east of Joliet, IL or about 35 miles SW of downtown Chicago).
Last nights storms were FANTASTIC for a weather hobbiest. Nonstop lighting, thunder and heavy rain for quite a long period (had to be a couple hours at least). Couldn't tell you how long as we lost power. Branches down is about the only damage I've personally seen (which is great considering it was quite a fierce storm). Mostly the storm was just a good show of constantly lit up sky, horizontal rain, some downed wires and blown transformers with flash flooding in some areas.
P.S. if anyone happens to have a screen shot or loop of chicago radar would much appriciate it. Lost power before I could get one.
Last nights storms were FANTASTIC for a weather hobbiest. Nonstop lighting, thunder and heavy rain for quite a long period (had to be a couple hours at least). Couldn't tell you how long as we lost power. Branches down is about the only damage I've personally seen (which is great considering it was quite a fierce storm). Mostly the storm was just a good show of constantly lit up sky, horizontal rain, some downed wires and blown transformers with flash flooding in some areas.
P.S. if anyone happens to have a screen shot or loop of chicago radar would much appriciate it. Lost power before I could get one.
0 likes
-
Pebbles
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1994
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
- Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)
Re: Repeat performance? July 17-20, Midwest - MDT risk today
P.S. list of storm reports out of Chicago NWS
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... suedby=LOT
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... suedby=LOT
0 likes
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
Re: Repeat performance? July 17-20, Midwest - MDT risk today
Pebbles wrote:Update from New Lenox (just east of Joliet, IL or about 35 miles SW of downtown Chicago).
Last nights storms were FANTASTIC for a weather hobbiest. Nonstop lighting, thunder and heavy rain for quite a long period (had to be a couple hours at least). Couldn't tell you how long as we lost power. Branches down is about the only damage I've personally seen (which is great considering it was quite a fierce storm). Mostly the storm was just a good show of constantly lit up sky, horizontal rain, some downed wires and blown transformers with flash flooding in some areas.
P.S. if anyone happens to have a screen shot or loop of chicago radar would much appriciate it. Lost power before I could get one.
No surprise at how angry that storm was. I tried to save many images of the line but I don't have any loops really. I did see several though, on both TV and the Internet. Let me say though, it was very impressive on radar and looked scary.
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Sps123 and 33 guests