Signs of change from global models

[cycloneye]

GFS long range loop



I know that long range forecasts are not good but what I am seeing from this run of GFS is a change to more agressive showing strong waves,some with weak low pressures,moving all the way to just east of Florida.Of course a model consensus and more runs by this model are needed to trust them but maybe this sign of more agressive run may show that things may start to heat up by early August.

Note=Anyone can post the model runs from any model here.

[skysummit]

Yes, I just posted something like this in another forum. It's definately a change that the GFS is beginning to hint at organization. We're not far now.

[ronjon]

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, hold on to your hats, its gonna be a wild ride starting in about two weeks. Here's the 18Z GFS at 300 hrs showing two distinct low pressure systems inthe western and central Atlantic. Note the position of the bermuda ridge (classic setup for the bowling balls to ride into the lane toward the SE US or GOM).

[Berwick Bay]

Yes indeed. Two to three days ago you could see the character of the basin changing in regard to convection, and increased potency of tropical waves. So I'm not surprised that the models are now catching up to this. We are in the transistion right now. The quiet mode is over. And I wouldn't assume on two weeks either for the actual outbreak to occur. Don't be surprised if we see cyclongenesis as early as late next week.

[vacanechaser]

looks to be right on time too... the waters are warming back up in the atlantic as well... could be interesting in about 2 weeks...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[wzrgirl1]

oh yes.....we are almost there....hopefully just a lot of tracking and no devastation from all of this

[windstorm99]

Indeed just a few weeks before things ramp up...

[jaxfladude]

reply to all above: Say what?
I thought the NHC/TPC and others had all but declared this hurricane season over and done with due to unfavorable conditions for tropical formation.

[Weatherfreak14]

reply to all above: Say what?
I thought the NHC/TPC and others had all but declared this hurricane season over and done with due to unfavorable conditions for tropical formation.

uhh, where did u get that info, never heard anything like that, Maybe u heard the rest of July is possibly to be inactive but it is supposed to be an above average season, and the models do show it becomeing that.

[southerngale]

reply to all above: Say what?
I thought the NHC/TPC and others had all but declared this hurricane season over and done with due to unfavorable conditions for tropical formation.

Why'd you think something like that?

[cycloneye]

reply to all above: Say what?
I thought the NHC/TPC and others had all but declared this hurricane season over and done with due to unfavorable conditions for tropical formation.

Let's not joke about this as many members may think that is real information that you are bringing but really is not.

[skysummit]

The 00z has begun to roll out. I'm interested to see what it'll do. Will it keep the lows? Will there be nothing of interest?

[skysummit]

The 00z GFS is out to 78 hours, and is still showing a closed low off of Africa.

[Opal storm]

Not surprised by the models, we're getting into late July and the turning point of the season.

[skysummit]

Not surprised by the models, we're getting into late July and the turning point of the season.

Yup....it's what we've all been waiting for

Hey...I was in your neck of the woods over the weekend and again yesterday and today. The weekend was for pleasure, and today was for work. I really wish I could make it back this coming weekend for the show, but I'll be Houston instead.

[dixiebreeze]

All pretty much on schedule, actually.

[flwxwatcher]

Yep, looks like its just about showtime in the Tropics

[cycloneye]

6z GFS Loop



Nothing spectacular in terms of showing a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm,but this 6z run continues to show the signs of change as weak lows appear but later vanish.To note is the subtropical ridge that extends from east to west and not as strong as in the first part of the run when the Azores high is very strong.

I would like to see NOGAPS showing something in the near future as this model always is the less agressive of all the global models,But of course to have a consensus of the models,UKMET,yes CMC NOGAPS and GFS have to be on the same page with one system to then trust their scenarios.

[fci]

reply to all above: Say what?
I thought the NHC/TPC and others had all but declared this hurricane season over and done with due to unfavorable conditions for tropical formation.

You should put a smiley face emoticon or something to indicate that you are joking or

Surely, you WERE just joking........

[boca]

Sure he's joking the NHC had their numbers up since late May which was above average. I'm sure he read it and is just being sarcastic.