SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Hot! Hot! Hot!
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
I just heard on the news, it could rain overnight.
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- JenBayles
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
Does anyone have a "Jeff" email about tomorrow's rain event? Just curious to see what his take is on it all.
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- Yankeegirl
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
Got this this afternoon....
Daily heavy rains will continue through the weekend as wet pattern remains locked in place across the state.
Discussion:
Morning water vapor and satellite trends show upper low over Mexico SSW of S TX with a weak shear axis extending NE along the TX coast into deep E TX. Air mass remains moist and unstable along and E of this axis and showers and thunderstorms will once again result once trigger temps in the mid 80’s are exceeded (10-noonish). A weak inverted trough or tropical wave is noted in the 850mb wind field over the central Gulf of Mexico and this feature will move NW into the TX coast on Thursday. GPS sounder shows PWS over the central Gulf of 2.0-2.3 inches and this rich tropical moisture should arrive overnight into Thursday morning. Expect widespread coastal development after midnight tonight as low level speed convergence develop along the coast with activity spreading inland around 500-600am Thursday. Trigger temps. fall to around 80 on Thursday with no capping suggesting multiple rounds of storms moving from SSE to NNW off the Gulf of Mexico. Mid level steering is on the order of 10-20mph so storm motions should be fast enough to prevent excessive rainfall at any one time however threat for training is moderate to high and rainfall rates given forecasted PWS will be in the 2-3 inch per hour range.
Deep moisture remains in place through Saturday with PWS hovering in the 1.9-2.1 range suggesting daily thunderstorm chances once trigger temps are reached. Weak cool front may attempt to push into W LA and E TX late Saturday and this will only serve to enhance rain chances. 40-50% chances should cover the weekend for now although these may need to be raised should the front look like it will get closer to the area.
Hydro:
Major River flooding in progress along the Trinity River.
Minor to Moderate flooding in progress along the Brazos River.
Trinity River @ Riverside:
Current Stage: 137.64
Flood Stage: 134.0
Forecast: River is near crest and will hold above 137.0 ft into early next week. At 137.0 ft water inundates homes in the Greenrich Shores Subdivision and the River Plantation area. Water is several feet deep in some homes.
Trinity River @ Liberty:
Current Stage: 28.19 ft
Flood Stage: 26.0 ft
Forecast: The river will rise to near 28.5 ft early Saturday and hold for several days due to releases from Lake Livingston passes upstream flood flows. At 27.0 ft moderate flooding begins with several communities above Liberty cut-off and water in homes. At 29.0 ft extensive flooding over much of Liberty Co. as hundreds of homes in 5-6 subdivisions around Liberty are flooded.
Brazos River at Hempstead:
Current Stage: 45.39 ft
Flood Stage: 50.0 ft
Bankfull: 25.0 ft
Forecast: River will rise to near 46.0 ft late today and hold through late Thursday before falling rapidly. Minor low land flooding is possible at levels above 40.0 ft
Brazos River at Richmond:
Current Stage: 41.51 ft
Flood Stage: 48.0 ft
Bankfull: 20.0 ft
Forecast: River will rise to near 46.0 ft late Friday and hold through midday Saturday before starting a rapid fall. At 46.1 ft backwater up Flat Bank Creek threatens homes in Missouri City. Minor flow passes through culverts into Oyster Creek. At 47.6 ft flooding begins in the Simonton area with water in homes in Missouri City.
Brazos River @ Rosharon:
Current Stage: 44.94 ft
Flood Stage: 43.0 ft
Forecast: River will rise to near 47.5 ft late Sunday. At levels above 43.0 ft minor low land flooding is in progress along the river in S Fort Bend and Brazoria counties.
Additional rainfall and/or changes in upstream flood gate operations will have impacts on downstream flood flows and recessions.
Daily heavy rains will continue through the weekend as wet pattern remains locked in place across the state.
Discussion:
Morning water vapor and satellite trends show upper low over Mexico SSW of S TX with a weak shear axis extending NE along the TX coast into deep E TX. Air mass remains moist and unstable along and E of this axis and showers and thunderstorms will once again result once trigger temps in the mid 80’s are exceeded (10-noonish). A weak inverted trough or tropical wave is noted in the 850mb wind field over the central Gulf of Mexico and this feature will move NW into the TX coast on Thursday. GPS sounder shows PWS over the central Gulf of 2.0-2.3 inches and this rich tropical moisture should arrive overnight into Thursday morning. Expect widespread coastal development after midnight tonight as low level speed convergence develop along the coast with activity spreading inland around 500-600am Thursday. Trigger temps. fall to around 80 on Thursday with no capping suggesting multiple rounds of storms moving from SSE to NNW off the Gulf of Mexico. Mid level steering is on the order of 10-20mph so storm motions should be fast enough to prevent excessive rainfall at any one time however threat for training is moderate to high and rainfall rates given forecasted PWS will be in the 2-3 inch per hour range.
Deep moisture remains in place through Saturday with PWS hovering in the 1.9-2.1 range suggesting daily thunderstorm chances once trigger temps are reached. Weak cool front may attempt to push into W LA and E TX late Saturday and this will only serve to enhance rain chances. 40-50% chances should cover the weekend for now although these may need to be raised should the front look like it will get closer to the area.
Hydro:
Major River flooding in progress along the Trinity River.
Minor to Moderate flooding in progress along the Brazos River.
Trinity River @ Riverside:
Current Stage: 137.64
Flood Stage: 134.0
Forecast: River is near crest and will hold above 137.0 ft into early next week. At 137.0 ft water inundates homes in the Greenrich Shores Subdivision and the River Plantation area. Water is several feet deep in some homes.
Trinity River @ Liberty:
Current Stage: 28.19 ft
Flood Stage: 26.0 ft
Forecast: The river will rise to near 28.5 ft early Saturday and hold for several days due to releases from Lake Livingston passes upstream flood flows. At 27.0 ft moderate flooding begins with several communities above Liberty cut-off and water in homes. At 29.0 ft extensive flooding over much of Liberty Co. as hundreds of homes in 5-6 subdivisions around Liberty are flooded.
Brazos River at Hempstead:
Current Stage: 45.39 ft
Flood Stage: 50.0 ft
Bankfull: 25.0 ft
Forecast: River will rise to near 46.0 ft late today and hold through late Thursday before falling rapidly. Minor low land flooding is possible at levels above 40.0 ft
Brazos River at Richmond:
Current Stage: 41.51 ft
Flood Stage: 48.0 ft
Bankfull: 20.0 ft
Forecast: River will rise to near 46.0 ft late Friday and hold through midday Saturday before starting a rapid fall. At 46.1 ft backwater up Flat Bank Creek threatens homes in Missouri City. Minor flow passes through culverts into Oyster Creek. At 47.6 ft flooding begins in the Simonton area with water in homes in Missouri City.
Brazos River @ Rosharon:
Current Stage: 44.94 ft
Flood Stage: 43.0 ft
Forecast: River will rise to near 47.5 ft late Sunday. At levels above 43.0 ft minor low land flooding is in progress along the river in S Fort Bend and Brazoria counties.
Additional rainfall and/or changes in upstream flood gate operations will have impacts on downstream flood flows and recessions.
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
Since the complex of storms developed out over the gulf during the early morning hours, it pretty much shut down chances for widespread convection inland due to it restricting the inflow of moisture from the gulf. With the showers and storms now weakening and breaking up over the gulf at this time, winds are already picking back up across coastal locations which will help bring in the deep moisture down to our south. Looks like a rainy day tomorrow indeed.
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- Yankeegirl
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
80% chance of rain today... I hate it when they put the rain chances so high... We never seem to get anything when its like that... lol... 

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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
Watch out if your on the north and northeastern sides of Harris county over the next hour or so as outflow from storms to the southwest is getting ready to merge with thunderstorms over and just east of downtown Houston. Look for this mess to slide up the north freeway. Ponding of water on the roads is likely with this activity.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007
TXC201-191700-
1006 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY...
* UNTIL NOON CDT
* AT 1006 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLEAR LAKE AND
PASADENA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA
THROUGH NOON.
MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY IN OR NEAR...
METRO HOUSTON AREA...
CLEAR LAKE...
PEARLAND...
SOUTH HOUSTON...
ALDINE...
BELLAIRE...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO CREEKS AND BAYOUS...DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
ADDITIONALLY...FLOODING MAY OCCUR ON...STREETS...FRONTAGE ROADS...AND
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS THE GROUND!
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007
TXC201-191700-
1006 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY...
* UNTIL NOON CDT
* AT 1006 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLEAR LAKE AND
PASADENA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA
THROUGH NOON.
MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY IN OR NEAR...
METRO HOUSTON AREA...
CLEAR LAKE...
PEARLAND...
SOUTH HOUSTON...
ALDINE...
BELLAIRE...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO CREEKS AND BAYOUS...DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
ADDITIONALLY...FLOODING MAY OCCUR ON...STREETS...FRONTAGE ROADS...AND
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS THE GROUND!
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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- JenBayles
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
Thanks for the "Jeff" update Yankee. I hear about the 80% rain chances today! So far, the Dome has kept the surrounding activity to a minimum this morning. Gotta laugh!
Have you checked out Addicks Reservoir lately? WOW! Looks like the Corps is holding it within about 3 feet of the Hiway 6 roadbed, but all it'll take is a solid p*ssdown in your area to send it right over.
Have you checked out Addicks Reservoir lately? WOW! Looks like the Corps is holding it within about 3 feet of the Hiway 6 roadbed, but all it'll take is a solid p*ssdown in your area to send it right over.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
Pretty crazy storms rolling through here right now. Very gusty winds (probably over 40mph at times), heavy rains and loud thunder are all being experienced. At one point (the beginning of the storm) there was even 100 or so scared birds in the air trying to fly away. That was a pretty wild sight.
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
JenBayles wrote:Thanks for the "Jeff" update Yankee. I hear about the 80% rain chances today! So far, the Dome has kept the surrounding activity to a minimum this morning. Gotta laugh!
Have you checked out Addicks Reservoir lately? WOW! Looks like the Corps is holding it within about 3 feet of the Hiway 6 roadbed, but all it'll take is a solid p*ssdown in your area to send it right over.
Yeah, I noticed that! I remember during the November 2003 flood that they had to close N Eldridge and a few lanes of SH 6 because of flooding from the reservoir.
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- jasons2k
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
The cellphone pictures don't do it justice, but at about 9:00 it looked like the end of Ghostbusters here in Uptown:




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- Tireman4
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
Weak cool front may attempt to push into W LA and E TX late Saturday and this will only serve to enhance rain chances. 40-50% chances should cover the weekend for now although these may need to be raised should the front look like it will get closer to the area.
Do we normally get them this time of year? I do remember August 2004 that we got a cool front and boy it was nice.
Do we normally get them this time of year? I do remember August 2004 that we got a cool front and boy it was nice.
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- southerngale
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
We had some moderate stuff come through this morning. 28mph wind gusts and 0.40'' of rain. That brings my monthly total to 8.33''. Would not be surprised to hit the 10'' mark the way things seem to be going.
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- Yankeegirl
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Re: SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Decent Chance of Rain
So is that it for rain for today? We only got a little rain here this morning!! Gotta love that 80% chance of rain!!!
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- jasons2k
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Fox 26 ran a story saying the Gulf Coast is most at risk for a hurricane strike...
http://www.myfoxhouston.com/myfox/
http://www.myfoxhouston.com/myfox/
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- Yankeegirl
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