Wacky CMC Up To No Good Again...

[SouthFloridawx]

Hmmm.....

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Pressures associated with the CMC's run for Maine:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif
Link becomes outdated at 0Z.
Main: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

Just read Jeff Masters blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

And he says this:

"There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance."

So a front would likely be in the way of the CMC's "solution".

In response to the CMC's prognostication 4 days ago of another area developing, Jeff Masters said this:

"Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our 'reliable' models."

I think what wise people say about two models presenting something similar, over at least a few runs, before putting too much faith in a forecast is the best idea.

Though I will add that it doesn't mean that I don't think it has a chance at development, only that we'll have to see more model runs and watch the loops.

Puerto Rico Satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

[Blown Away]

Low develops around 60hr.
http://meteocentre.com/models/modelsgem_e.html#GLB00

[storms in NC]

with it sliding down the coast in 72. Wait and see.

[miamicanes177]

Yehhhaaaww! CMC says rocket power time! NYC Hurricane Of 07'!

[caneman]

Pressures associated with the CMC's run for Maine:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif
Link becomes outdated at 0Z.
Main: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

Just read Jeff Masters blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

And he says this:

"There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance."

So a front would likely be in the way of the CMC's "solution".

In response to the CMC's prognostication 4 days ago of another area developing, Jeff Masters said this:

"Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our 'reliable' models."

I think what wise people say about two models presenting something similar, over at least a few runs, before putting too much faith in a forecast is the best idea.

Though I will add that it doesn't mean that I don't think it has a chance at development, only that we'll have to see more model runs and watch the loops.

Puerto Rico Satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

Well it looks like the 18z GFS may be sniffing out this scenario out the tail end of the front coming off of the Carolinas.

[curtadams]

Looks like a typical northbound CMC phantom system. I don't remember any of these actually happening.

[Weatherfreak14]

Now the GFS is showing something off the carolinias and moving up the East Coast, this could be something http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007071818&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[wobblehead]

Each day for the past week the CMC has been demostrating a shot gun pattern spread for a lp system. I think it wants some attention.
There are exceptions but as a general rule cold front tails tend to develope into tropical systems in June, October, and November and usually form in the GoM and the western Caribbean Sea.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The CMC forecasts the northern part of the wave near the islands to hit Maine in the July 18th 12Z run:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

It is not picking that up from the tail end of the front.

The CMC also picks up a low trying to develop off the front.

What is a bit comical about that run is that the CMC develops the wave into a tropical storm and barrels it into the dissipating front strengthening it just about the whole way through almost to Maine at the same time the tail end of the front forms a low.

Something forming off the tail end of the front is enormously more likely than the entirety of what the CMC had in the 12Z run.

Lets see if the 0Z run has some sense of a reality.

[MGC]

The Canadian should stick to forecasting blizzards. Of course one of these time it will get it right....MGC

[Hurricaneman]

If i go by probability, it most likely wont happen

[DrewFL]

00Z CMC still wants to do this:



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
109 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

500 HPA TROUGHING REMAINING ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...
THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN SHOW MORE SEPARATION IN THE 500 HPA PATTERN
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. SINCE THE MODELS CAN SOMETIMES SHOW SOLUTIONS THAT ARE TOO
PHASED LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...FAVOR THE NON-PHASED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS DEEPER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH AFFECTS THE QPF PATTERN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. WILL FAVOR A MORE GFS/NCEP ENSMEAN/CANADIAN LOOK
ALOFT...MINUS THE CANADIANS TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE FEATURE WEST OF
BERMUDA. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH OPCS ATLANTIC DESK.

[DrewFL]

[flwxwatcher]

Well it looks like the 18z GFS may be sniffing out this scenario out the tail end of the front coming off of the Carolinas.

Looks like the 0Z EURO is sniffing out this possibility as well.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7071900!!/

[DrewFL]

There appears to be some subliminal sniffing by the GFS and the Euro. The CMC is full on. So, it will be interesting as always to see the next run of the CMC this afternoon.

[caneman]

May be a lot of CMC crow eaters in the end. I'm not syaing they got the scenario right, however, they would have been the one and only to sniff it out early.

[flwxwatcher]

May be a lot of CMC crow eaters in the end. I'm not syaing they got the scenario right, however, they would have been the one and only to sniff it out early.

I don't think we will see explosive development from the wave in the Eastern Caribbean as it gets drawn NW like the Canadian is showing.. I buy more into the Euro solution of something forming because of the Frontal Boundary pushing off the Carolina Coast.. maybe the energy in the Caribbean does get drawn into any system trying to form off the Carolinas??? Anyways, should be an interesting week ahead :)

[Steve]

>>May be a lot of CMC crow eaters in the end. I'm not syaing they got the scenario right, however, they would have been the one and only to sniff it out early.

As per the other thread where this was discussed prior to the opening of the new thread, Navy NOGAPS and UKMET also had "activity" in the slot between the Bermuda High and a ridge emerging from the CONUS. As I said in that thread, no way we're getting a closed hurricane to hit the Gulf of Maine, but there well may be something in the east of Florida vicinity by early next week. Look at the fracturing wave near the islands now for a hint at what might contribute some of the convection.

Steev

[btangy]

CMC underwent a major overhaul in the offseason and is doing much better in the mid-latitudes. Of course, the tropics are an entirely different matter. The NAM-WRF last year had a similar problem spinning up every blob of convection into a tropical cyclone.