Basin beginning to tease

[flwxwatcher]

Yes, I hear many of you talking about August and pretty normal so far. But action may come a little earlier than many think. Dr. Gray used to give an update at around Aug 7th. That was the real beginning of the prime tropical season. But I think we may see something before then. Like I said, this looks to be a transition time right now (next 7-10 days). I wouldn't be surprised (and have stated that we might see something in the last few days of July). Thinking July 26th - 29th time frame.

Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see a July Storm.. Check out this site.. and run the animation. It implies the Gulf has increased risk for formation later this week into the week-end.. I just found this site a few weeks ago and have no idea of its track record but it will be interesting to see how it does this year.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... ecast.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

If I remember correctly. In 98 there was alot of SAL in July. Lots of people were saying. It's going to be a dead year. Then boom they came. So watch what we say. Cause, BOOM! They will come.

[Brent]

July 16th--nothing imminent, but convection returning with avengance to the Carib and Gulf. Churchill said this is not the "beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning". Perhaps what we are seeing are signs that the early "preseason" June-July tropical period is rapidly approaching its end, "the end of the beginning". Speaking mainly now here of the GOM and Carib. I'm not setting my mind on anything in particular,(ULL still in Carib, and deep trough in S Tex affecting GOM), yet for the first time in weeks, both the Gulf and Carib are beginning to look like they are phasing into a more active period.

Moisture and convection has increased in areas of the Atlantic
Basin as a consequence of the entrace of the wet phase
of the MJO into the basin. Things will get
cranking within the next 2-3 weeks I believe.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
This season needs to be one of the quietest and weakest hurricane seasons ever recorded, the flip side of 2004-2005....

Ummmm... 2005, yes, but in 2004 we didn't have the A storm until 2 weeks from now on the last day of July!

June and July are typically very quiet... this is not unusual. 2005 was an anomaly.

[canegrl04]

Yes, I hear many of you talking about August and pretty normal so far. But action may come a little earlier than many think. Dr. Gray used to give an update at around Aug 7th. That was the real beginning of the prime tropical season. But I think we may see something before then. Like I said, this looks to be a transition time right now (next 7-10 days). I wouldn't be surprised (and have stated that we might see something in the last few days of July). Thinking July 26th - 29th time frame.

Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see a July Storm.. Check out this site.. and run the animation. It implies the Gulf has increased risk for formation later this week into the week-end.. I just found this site a few weeks ago and have no idea of its track record but it will be interesting to see how it does this year.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... ecast.html

I will be excited just to see the first genuine TD of the season History shows us there is an excellent chance of one forming in the coming days

[skysummit]

A couple days ago there was a short program on one of our local news stations concerning people who are thinking this year will be a slow season since it's been rather slow so far. They basically said "think again". Sure, we probably won't have the 17 - 19 named storms as previously thought, but 13 - 17 is definately within reach. For instance, in 2004 the "A" storm didn't form until July 31st and we had 15 named storms that year.

They are concerned people will become complacent because after 2005, it seems like most need a storm every week in order to feel like it's a "busy season". In 2006, the persistant east coast trough spared the U.S., plus the never ending series of upper level lows kept development to a minimum. This is not 2006.

In other words, stop saying this season is a dud and be patient. It'll happen.

[Sanibel]

That wave that hit South America has flared in the Caribbean. This one is really 'teasing' development with a hint of rotation in that eastern-most blob.

Half-way there.