Excellent analysis on steering curents by Jeff Masters 7/27

[Frank2]

Wow - as pilots say, flying through developing random convection is usually worse than flying in a well-developed tropical cyclone...

I kept my paper bag close at hand...

[jrod]

Does anyone know what Bastardi is saying lately? I know he is unpopular on this board but I am sure he has something to say about what the pattern may be setting up for the heart of hurricane season.

These maps explain pretty well what Bastardi and Accuweather are predicting this year..

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... 7/cone.gif

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... mpacts.gif

Basically, most areas have an above normal risk of a landfalling storm (except the NE United States), so everyone should be on guard this season.

I saw the clip on his 2007 prediction and the cone, when he did he was talking about La Nina so I wonder if he is still going with his early season predictions. I am more interested in what he has been saying recently.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Does anyone know what Bastardi is saying lately? I know he is unpopular on this board but I am sure he has something to say about what the pattern may be setting up for the heart of hurricane season.

Bastardi says overall numbers near normal for the season, but that most storms will form close enough to US that there should be an increased landfall threat, especially from Central Gulf through Florida East Coast. Lower chance for Carolinas or New England, but he says it only takes one to break away from the pack. He thinks strongests torms eastern Gulf, but he says several analog years that had tropical storms with heavy rain in Texas, which would be a problem. He thinks in 2 weeks pattern with big shear over islands relaxes with TUTT pulling further North, so there is still a shear zone down into the Eastern Caribbean, but waves will pass through fairly quickly, and he predicted today (on video) generally anti-cyclonic flow at 200 mb for Western Caribbean up into Eastern Gulf and Bahamas area, and notes heat potential in Eastern Gulf similar to 2005.

I watched his video today- he sees nothing immediate, but he does see the outflow levels becoming favorable for Caribbean/Gulf/Bahamas area development in about 10 days.

[ronjon]

I pulled the GFS ensemble mean plot from todays 12z run. Here it is at 360 hrs. You can see that the northern jet stream retreats into Canada. Now, whether this pattern holds for more than a week or two, we'll have to see. But, this change is consistent with climatology in that there is less amplification in the mean flow with decreasing shear over more of the subtropical region in August.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f360.html

[x-y-no]

GFS is continuing to be consistant about this pattern shift.

[ronjon]

GFS is continuing to be consistant about this pattern shift.

yeah, xy its looking more and more like a major pattern change with the Bermuda High axis extending all the way up into the Carolinas. Here's the 288 hr plot of the 6Z GFS ensemble model. Jet stream way up along the Canadian border.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f288.html

[Steve]

>>Jet stream way up along the Canadian border.

Yeah and look at all the runs (not sure if that was ensemble or operational, forgot to check) which only show two or three lines dipping into New England. That's a pretty strong concensus IMHO from a model that traditionally underplays excactly what it's showing.

Steve

[Nimbus]

I'm sure in no hurry to see this pattern move north, The SAL,ITCZ and shear have been such a nice deterent this year. Sometimes I think these model programmers must get together by phone and agree on setting some of the initialization parameters.

[Blown Away]

Don't we usually have this pattern change late July/August? The models can help us narrow the change within a few days, but can't we just expect this type of pattern most of the time?

[windstorm99]

Things could get interesting next week....Jeff Masters lastest blog 7/19/07

Large amounts of dry air and African dust cover the eastern Atlantic, and this dusty air is moving westward towards the Caribbean. Tropical storm development is unlikely in this region for the coming five days. Thereafter, as a major shift in the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern puts a ridge of high pressure in place over the Eastern U.S., the Saharan dust outbreaks may decrease. Additionally, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is expected to decrease substantially by next week, and chances of tropical storm formation are much higher next week than they were this week.

[Stormcenter]

Why am I not holding my breath waiting for that to happen?
It is still July so folks don't expect much just yet. Now when
mid August rolls around then maybe we should start seeing some activity
blossom. Just my 2 cents.

[boca]

Out of 6 months of hurricane season we truely have about 2 months of active tropical weather. Aug 1st thru Oct 15th. In the other months 1 or 2 storms here and there. This statement excludes the 2005 season. My 2 cents.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Out of 6 months of hurricane season we truely have about 2 months of active tropical weather. Aug 1st thru Oct 1st. My 2 cents.

WEll, Texas can get the occasional weak hurricane or TC in June and July (Claudette, Allison), but that generally holds for Texas, because by the end of September, the Westerlies are into the Northern Gulf. IIRC, in the last 60 years, Jerry in 1989 was the only October hurricane to hit Texas, and it was a 75 mph Cat 1.


Florida is a different story. Storms develop in the W. Cariibean into the latter half of October, and when they come North and start recurving, they will recurve into Florida. Opal and Wilma come to mind.

[ronjon]

From HPC Disc:

CURRENT ANOMALOUS HIGHLY AMPLFIED PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A MORE NORMAL MID SUMMER PATTERN OVER CONUS WITH WESTERLIES SHIFTING NWD IN ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WWD FROM ACROSS THE ATLC INTO WRN CONUS. AMPLIFYING ERN TROF WILL LAST UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH RISING HTS AND TEMPS SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS.

[Sanibel]

The eastern CONUS trough has amplified, as said above. Here in NY, we are in yet another cool dry airmass behind the last front of yesterday that rained out yet again up into New England to continue the wet pattern. ULL's are swirling out in the Atlantic.

We'll see if the Bermuda High builds in next week, like they say, and changes the pattern.

[elvinp]

I am not a regular contributor, but a great reader. I found this article while searching for another project. I pass it on for the good of the order. Here is the link -- http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2007/07/2 ... gory=earth.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like the link has expired.

[windstorm99]

A return of the eastcoast trof in august....We'll see.

[DESTRUCTION5]

A return of the eastcoast trof in august....We'll see.

Can anyone say Charley pattern?

[meteorologyman]

GFS shows a 1008 mb low pressure coming off Africa but that's 16 days out