Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[Anthonyl]

The GFS in this morning's runs have been showing an area of low pressure moving off at a low attitude. The system looks quit vigorous and SAL conditions in the Atlantic appear to becoming less hostile,not withstanding warm sst's and expected reduction in shear.

[canegrl04]

This would be right on schedule for my belief that we'll see a td form before the end of next week .Lets see if this one can survive

[Weatherfreak14]

If not next week i think we will see one in the next 2-3weeks and we also see our first hurricane also, the way that things are shaping up, it looks promising and yet scary.

[ronjon]

Nice massive wave with deep convection rolling off the African coast at about 10 deg N. I think this is the one the long-range GFS develops into low pressure down the road.

[Frank2]

We'll see what happens with this disturbance...

[Weatherfreak14]

We'll see what happens with this disturbance...

It could get intresting, but IMO i think this will be one of the waves that paves the way for the next one behind it, There is still plenty of SAL out there, but these strong waves will eat that SAL up in a heartbeat leaving the perfect enviiroment for the next wave.

[flwxwatcher]

Picture is worth 1,000 words


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

[Frank2]

Your link doesn't work...

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, the system is quite powerful for July. It has a broad scope with a tight circulation just inland over the African continent near 10-12N just ready to move offshore. Deep convection is located over the water ready to feed the low pressure once it hits the shoreline. However, one major factor that might go against its development is the MASSIVE surge of SAL that is about to depart Africa at the same time. This could already explain the lack of thunderstorms near the circulation center with most of the activity south of it. If it wasn't for the huge amount of dry air ready move offshore, I would give it quite a high chance of developing. We'll see how it behaves as it hits the marginal water temperatures.

This could be the one to break the quiet spell if it manages to overcome the adversity...

[flwxwatcher]

Your link doesn't work...

Just checked and it worked fine for me

[Lowpressure]

Picture is worth 1,000 words


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

That looks pretty good, it actually appears to have some mid level twist to it. Something to monitor.

[HURAKAN]

Looks interesting, but it must remain below the SAL to the north if anything is going to happen.

[Frank2]

I don't think it'll develop - looking at that photo, it'll probably fall off the face of the earth first...

LOL

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[Sanibel]

This wave off Africa has a mild curved look to it. We've seen many like this evaporate upon hitting the cool Atlantic.

If you look on visible loop it looks like a big SAL layer has pulled out along with it right on top of it. (Hello 2006 comparison)

[canegrl04]

This wave off Africa has a mild curved look to it. We've seen many like this evaporate upon hitting the cool Atlantic.

If you look on visible loop it looks like a big SAL layer has pulled out along with it right on top of it. (Hello 2006 comparison)

Between the ULLs and the SAL,it certainly looks like this is going to be a quiet season.Maybe 2008 will finally be an active one.For now,I'm in snooze mode ready to move on to other things more interesting

[Weatherfreak000]

Are you kidding me? Canegrl you apparently haven't been watched hurricanes to this extent before the year 2004.


Or maybe curiously you forgot in 2004 the First Storm, Hurricane Alex didn't form even until the very end of July.


CHILL OUT.

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane Season doesn't mean that between June and November every day is like this:

[Weatherfreak14]

Are you kidding me? Canegrl you apparently haven't been watched hurricanes to this extent before the year 2004.


Or maybe curiously you forgot in 2004 the First Storm, Hurricane Alex didn't form even until the very end of July.


CHILL OUT.

I agree people dont know what a regular hurricane season is anymore, they think we have to have 20 named storms to be active. In my book this season has been full of activity we have 2 storms, which were sub-tropicial to tropical. Over time now we will see our next storm in the next 2 weeks.

[jpwxman]

It's very common for disturbances to look this strong while still over Africa. I've seen many over the years look like tropical storms already, especially right when they hit the coast. But unless it's about mid-August or later, they typically fall apart within about 24-36 hours after emerging offshore. Water temps are still marginal and it would normally have to survive to about 50W before it had much chance of development. Still, if other factors are very favorable, they do occasionally develop this early in the season.

JP