Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[AnnularCane]

because.. its not .. a invest yet... until it is..


its the wheel of fortune tropical game show..

Here we go C_ _ N _ _ L Vanna,I'd like to buy an "A"

C_AN_AL

Are you ready to solve the puzzle? Hey look, it already spells a word!

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,enough to the none productive posts meaning let's post more informative posts that may help the members get the latest about this wave.Let's not post silly things please.

[chadtm80]

Ok folks,enough to the none productive posts meaning let's post more informative posts that may help the members get the latest about this wave.Let's not post silly things please.

X's 2

[Aric Dunn]

Ok folks,enough to the none productive posts meaning let's post more informative posts that may help the members get the latest about this wave.Let's not post silly things please.

sorry .. it was just a way to take a break ..

no more..

[SaveNola]

Marked decrease in shower activity, not looking as impressive.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, we will probably not see much out of this wave (other than eventual added moisture in TX). By the end of next week and into August though, it might be a completely different story. I have the feeling that once the high settles in and conditions become more favorable, the basin will explode with activity.

[windstorm99]

That ULL to its north might put the clamp on it .

[knotimpaired]

Folks,

Do me a favor. Luis and MJ know I am taking care of our property on the north coast of Vieques because my husband is in bed recouping from surgery and at this time I have been doing everything.

I have spent all day preparing for a possible wave with 3 herniated discs and I am not sure I can take much more unless I bring friends in.

So would someone tell me the truth? The NWS and The Weather Channel differ.

Karen




Would someone PLEASE give me a idea if this is just another minimal wave or do I need to call in reinforcements?

Radar is wishy-washy.

K

[storms in NC]

I told ya it would be a interest in a day or 2 yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Folks,

Do me a favor. Luis and MJ know I am taking care of our property on the north coast of Vieques because my husband is in bed recouping from surgery and at this time I have been doing everything.

I have spent all day preparing for a possible wave with 3 herniated discs and I am not sure I can take much more unless I bring friends in.

So would someone tell me the truth? The NWS and The Weather Channel differ.

Karen




Would someone PLEASE give me a idea if this is just another minimal wave or do I need to call in reinforcements?

Radar is wishy-washy.

K

This is only a tropical wave that has flared today but the organization is very poor.For Vieques,you can expect rain in bands moving thru that island later in the overnight hours and tommorow.But the most important thing is that you dont have to put shutters.

[knotimpaired]

Thanks Luis,

I have not tried to bother you with questions since I know you are so busy with the whole region.

We have bahama shutters which weigh about 24#'s each and I was not sure if I could do it alone.

Thanks for answering.

K

[NDG]

My thinking is that we will see a surface low develop near the northern windward islands, where a mid level circulation has been noticed since earlier this afternoon, and where surface wind reports have been light and variable.

[Opal storm]

Looks pretty good tonight. If it keeps this up overnight I think surface pressures will continue to drop and we may see a surface-low form in 24 to 36 hours.

[cycloneye]

Thanks Luis,

I have not tried to bother you with questions since I know you are so busy with the whole region.

We have bahama shutters which weigh about 24#'s each and I was not sure if I could do it alone.

Thanks for answering.

K

Anyway,stay tuned to Talkin Tropics forum because you never know if there are some changes to the organization of the wave and we wake up to a depression in our doorsteps as the tropics many times gives us surprises.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I hope we see something outta this system like an INVEST97L!!

The AMERICAN way to check out storms are to fly RECON into them and im hopeing to get a RECON flight SOON OR I'LL LOSS MY MIND

[Sanibel]

If it doesn't deep refire soon it could bust. It has moved far north fairly quickly, making me wonder how much the ULL has to do with this? Hmm? Looking for red ir outbreak tonight.

[cycloneye]

I hope we see something outta this system like an INVEST97L!!

The AMERICAN way to check out storms are to fly RECON into them and im hopeing to get a RECON flight SOON OR I'LL LOSS MY MIND

I think you didn't saw my post about none productive or not informative posts but let's try to not post none informative posts please.

[wxman57]

A 1010.1 mb reading reported at 16.4N, 65.7 W. That's the lowest reading we've seen so far.--110 miles due south of eastern Puerto Rico.

20/00 V7CY9 16.4 -65.7 25.5 080 8 1010.1 0.2 V7CY9

I see that ship on the 00Z surface plot. It looks suspiciously low compared to all readings around it. The barometer is probably out of calibration. Just to the north of that ship, St. Croix is reporting a steadily rising pressure, up from 1014.1mb at 21Z to 1015.6mb at 01Z. Convection is almost nonexistent near the lower pressure southeast of the buoy near 15N/67.5W, and the wind at that buoy is becoming easterly, indicating the wave axis is passing. Pressure there is 1011.7mb and fairly steady.

So all convection is now associated with the upper-level trof interaction with the wave over the NE Caribbean. This moisture should be drawn northward into the upper low to the north. With the wave moving off to the west, the storms will probably diminish tonight/tomorrow morning. Doesn't look very impressive to me now. But I guess you guys are getting pretty restless. I think it'll be another week or so before there is a real shot at development. But I won't turn my back on this system until it's inland into Mexico.

[wxman57]

If it doesn't deep refire soon it could bust. It has moved far north fairly quickly, making me wonder how much the ULL has to do with this? Hmm? Looking for red ir outbreak tonight.

Wave axis is moving almost due west. The apparent NW motion is due to the top of the wave interacting with the upper-level trof extending southward from the upper low. I think the wave's convection peaked earlier today as the interaction with the trof began. That's about over now, though.