Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[NDG]

[Sanibel]

I see your point wx57, but have to respectfully disagree. I believe we have a system here trying to organize but being trimmed by the ULL while forming. This explains the convection beyond its strength appearance. However, the system has too much curvature to just be ULL shear induced. I also believe the 1010 is accurate. 1010 is a LOW for goodness's sakes! I'll gamble it will refire tonight and form despite the buzzsaw ULL. If not, then the ULL ate it up and we'll never know the difference. But the curvature is there. Could be another Chris - bulk up and fade. It's in the same place as Chris.

[skysummit]

I've been watching this little swirl for a couple hours now. At first I thought it was just a mini vortex or something, but it's been pretty persistant....probably at the mid levels.

[Weatherfreak14]

Look at the Sat, it looks upper level winds are not good for this to develop, but if they slack we mite see something but i think all this will ever be is a wave unless we see a major convection burst overnight and organization, which is possible but not too likely to hapen. Most likely as I said before, this storm is just Eating up the SAL and paving the way for future storms and also a warning sign for things to come.

[deltadog03]

actually upper level winds are becoming very favorable with a ridge developing over the top!

[MGC]

Today's burst of convection is due to the wave interacting with the ULL to the north of it. There is a small chance a surface low could form but in situations like this it is not that common. Currently I'd speculate that the chances of a TC to form in the next couple of days at 10%. The upper enviroment is not very condusive to TC formation ATT......MGC

[skysummit]

actually upper level winds are becoming very favorable with a ridge developing over the top!

LOL...exactly. What else do you want? If only that ULL wasn't to its north.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT
THIS TIME...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Sanibel]

If Skysummit's vortex is the center it will crash into Hispaniola. Good catch Skysummit!

[Blown Away]

Sounds like it's generally moving WNW towards PR & Hispanola.

[Weatherfreak14]

i will be watchin that on my radar and see what happens with that over the next our, i think hes right that may be the center. Very good eye skysummit!!

[knotimpaired]

If any of you want to get first news, I will stay here as I am, and I sure MJ on our sister island Culebra will.

You see, we live at sea level and a small wave even though it is exicting to you, you must remember something.

Ouch....Oh you do not.

The homes in Vieques and Culebra were destroyed in Hugo 80-90% of all homes and business.

Now do you all want to pray for a Cat 3-5 in the islands and it hits you at Cat 1?

We are all people.

Remember the 6 x 6 rule?

Look it up.

[skysummit]

i will be watchin that on my radar and see what happens with that over the next our, i think hes right that may be the center. Very good eye skysummit!!

Thanks. Try to use a color table that goes all the way down to 0dbz. (That's if you're using something like GR3 or similar) I just changed mine. It's much easier to see.

[Weatherfreak14]

If any of you want to get first news, I will stay here as I am, and I sure MJ on our sister island Culebra will.

You see, we live at sea level and a small wave even though it is exicting to you, you must remember something.

Ouch....Oh you do not.

The homes in Vieques and Culebra were destroyed in Hugo 80-90% of all homes and business.

Now do you all want to pray for a Cat 3-5 in the islands and it hits you at Cat 1?

We are all people.

Remember the 6 x 6 rule?

Look it up.

I think no one here wants a cat 3-5 storm or even a TS over the islands. we most want a CAT 5 out over sea.

[srainhoutx]

If any of you want to get first news, I will stay here as I am, and I sure MJ on our sister island Culebra will.

You see, we live at sea level and a small wave even though it is exicting to you, you must remember something.

Ouch....Oh you do not.

The homes in Vieques and Culebra were destroyed in Hugo 80-90% of all homes and business.

Now do you all want to pray for a Cat 3-5 in the islands and it hits you at Cat 1?

We are all people.

Remember the 6 x 6 rule?

Look it up.

thinking of you sister

[Weatherfreak14]

i will be watchin that on my radar and see what happens with that over the next our, i think hes right that may be the center. Very good eye skysummit!!

Thanks. Try to use a color table that goes all the way down to 0dbz. (That's if you're using something like GR3 or similar) I just changed mine. It's much easier to see.

Yes i have, and i am useing GRlevel 3 also. Thanx for the tip.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT
THIS TIME...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[meteorologyman]

I have to ask....
what is the wind speed now at the center of circulation, because that's what i'm assuming it's not a TD? the low is at 1010mb the same with Tropical Depression Cosme in the Eastern Pacific

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Lots of convection
Some circulation
Might slowly develop
Heat content is high in the ocean
Moisture content is high
Upper Level High building over it


Definitely something to watch closely
if you live in Puerto Rico and Hispanoila
and nearby Caribbean Islands.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have to ask....
what is the wind speed now at the center of circulation, because that's what i'm assuming it's not a TD? the low is at 1010mb the same with Tropical Depression Cosme in the Eastern Pacific

I would think it's not a TD because of no closed surface low...but I'm not
sure if my reason is correct....but that's what the 1030 update
said something of