Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[Weatherfreak14]

Thats the latest update cuz its only 10:25 EST time right now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

For the reasons stated on page 17 of this thread
in my post- I think this could become
an invest sometime tonight or
tomorrow...depending on
organization and convective
persistence.

Also, I do not wish for systems to develop.
I just try to forecast the weather. But remember folks,
I'm no expert.

[Complacency]

bust

[Sanibel]

Skysummit's vortex on radar just poofed. I'm afraid this one is looking more and more like ULL flaring.

[Weatherfreak14]

Its possible TBH, not too likely but possible, i would not be suprised as this is made an invest, but i think that is the most it would become, but will still keep a close eye on it.

[Weatherfreak14]

Skysummit's vortex on radar just poofed. I'm afraid this one is looking more and more like ULL flaring.

I think that is just the radar beams not beable to get that far out to sea because of the rain band right over the radar site right now blocking the beams.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Its possible TBH, not too likely but possible, i would not be suprised as this is made an invest, but i think that is the most it would become, but will still keep a close eye on it.

The big factor will be what happens with its organization and
convection once the Upper Level Low moves away.
If the convection and organization decrease, development
ceases.
But if convection persists, then it could become an invest.
I'll check on it several times tonight
and tomorrow morning and see what happens
with it.

[tolakram]

I've been watching this little swirl for a couple hours now. At first I thought it was just a mini vortex or something, but it's been pretty persistant....probably at the mid levels.

This also shows that feature up pretty well:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

yikes, edited super long url.

[Complacency]

Maybe the Weather Modification Bill S.517 (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtex ... l=s109-517) is actually helping us out here...maybe chemtrails (http://www.newswithviews.com/guest_opinion/guest81.htm) are necessary for fighting potential tropical development besides Saharan dust.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe the Weather Modification Bill S.517 (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtex ... l=s109-517) is actually helping us out here...maybe chemtrails (http://www.newswithviews.com/guest_opinion/guest81.htm) are necessary for fighting potential tropical development besides Saharan dust.

Hey dynomat, it is not you that is keeping things quite this season. Its shear, that is above normal. I think it would be a good thing for a few tropical storms to form.

[Weatherfreak14]

Maybe the Weather Modification Bill S.517 (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtex ... l=s109-517) is actually helping us out here...maybe chemtrails (http://www.newswithviews.com/guest_opinion/guest81.htm) are necessary for fighting potential tropical development besides Saharan dust.

I am totally against this this is just wrong realsing more gases into the air just for an experment, this is totally wrong. and most likely not to be passed as this was in 06 anywaz.

[Opal storm]

bust

*Presses the "ban" button

[canetracker]

bust

*Presses the "ban" button

Spam Agreed! This bill was a bust and was cleared from the books. http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s109-517

[HURAKAN]

It's persisting at the moment. Lets wait for tomorrow and then we can start choosing between "poof" or "invest".

[cpdaman]

wow if this forms the pro-mets will have to work this weekend

tis the season

[wxman57]

Here is a 02Z surface analysis. Note that the lowest surface pressures are well to the south near the coast of Venezuela, not over the NE Caribbean near the convection. It's just a wave axis. There is no circulation, and max winds are 5-10 kts. And convection appears to be decreasing as the wave axis begins moving away from the upper low. Pressures are rising throughout the area. I don't think it'll qualify for an invest over the next few days. It's only chance may come once it moves into the BoC and SW Gulf early next week.

[knotimpaired]

Coqui's are singing, life is good.

I do not think we will get more than a "roll over and hug".

You all keep up the good work and look for doom. Here we want rain, nothing else.

Vieques seems to miss it all and that may say something.

Have fun.

[canegrl04]

Wow! That looks like its set up shop and ready for business INVEST in the morning if it's still looking good

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a 02Z surface analysis. Note that the lowest surface pressures are well to the south near the coast of Venezuela, not over the NE Caribbean near the convection. It's just a wave axis. There is no circulation, and max winds are 5-10 kts. And convection appears to be decreasing as the wave axis begins moving away from the upper low. Pressures are rising throughout the area. I don't think it'll qualify for an invest over the next few days. It's only chance may come once it moves into the BoC and SW Gulf early next week.

.

if you have not noticed ... the truth or fact or. what ever you want to call it falls on def ears.. everyone keeps finding.. what ever they want and not what is actually going .. on.. which is JUST A WAVE AXIS.. i agree with you 100% this time... in the past we have differed but not now.. i can not find a single shred of evidence suggesting and LLC .. just a wave axis.. im not saying it wont happen .. (maybe even over night) but there is nothing there now.. persistent convection yes.. LLC no..

the only change from this morning.. besides the convection is the fact that we have Straight southerly winds.. which is not typical of a "wave" per se. we have a well defined and sharp wave axis that may try to close off a low sometime in the near future if it does not. do it soon.. it will loose its upper level support and go POOF>..

and there are multiple mLC all over the place and skysummit found one.. just happened to be close enough to the radar .. that we got a pretty good look at it... but thats it..

[DrewFL]

Thanks for the info wxman57 !