Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[storms in NC]

I will bet you all the first real storm will be around the last part of July or the first week of Aug and I will not be able to watch it or talk about it.
I told you all yesterday I had Doc appt to see if I had cancer or not. Well I do and my surgery is Aug 2. Maybe I can get a lap top and use it in the hospital.LOL
Deb

[boca]

Best of luck to you with your surgery and hopefully you'll have your lap top to pass the time.

[Trader Ron]

I will bet you all the first real storm will be around the last part of July or the first week of Aug and I will not be able to watch it or talk about it.
I told you all yesterday I had Doc appt to see if I had cancer or not. Well I do and my surgery is Aug 2. Maybe I can get a lap top and use it in the hospital.LOL
Deb

Deb,

I'm sorry to hear the news. I will say a prayer for you. All the best.

[fci]

That's why I called it a wave yesterday (and not an area of disturbed weather, which implies something organized) - a wave is all it is...

Frank:
What is with the obsession with semantics on "area of disturbed weather" vs. "tropical wave"?
I don't get it.

(I'll take the bait)

Isn't every tropical system in some sense an "area of disturbed weather"?
Even a mighty Hurricane is in fact one.
How about a disorganized bunch of persistent thunderstorms or showers?
Seems logically to be an area with disturbed (not tranquil) weather incorporated into it.

Oh, and where is the implication that it is "there is organization in the phrase "area of disturbed weather"?
Perhaps if it were called "An organized area of disturbed weather"?
But I don't see the word "organized in the phrase "area of disturbed weather".
Do you????

Sure seems like a non-issue to me yet I was compelled to comment on it!

Oh well.......

[Agua]

I will bet you all the first real storm will be around the last part of July or the first week of Aug and I will not be able to watch it or talk about it.
I told you all yesterday I had Doc appt to see if I had cancer or not. Well I do and my surgery is Aug 2. Maybe I can get a lap top and use it in the hospital.LOL
Deb

God bless.

[HURAKAN]

That's why I called it a wave yesterday (and not an area of disturbed weather, which implies something organized) - a wave is all it is...

Frank:
What is with the obsession with semantics on "area of disturbed weather" vs. "tropical wave"?
I don't get it.

(I'll take the bait)

Isn't every tropical system in some sense an "area of disturbed weather"?
Even a mighty Hurricane is in fact one.
How about a disorganized bunch of persistent thunderstorms or showers?
Seems logically to be an area with disturbed (not tranquil) weather incorporated into it.

Oh, and where is the implication that it is "there is organization in the phrase "area of disturbed weather"?
Perhaps if it were called "An organized area of disturbed weather"?
But I don't see the word "organized in the phrase "area of disturbed weather".
Do you????

Sure seems like a non-issue to me yet I was compelled to comment on it!

Oh well.......

In my opinion and what it sounds like, "disturbed weather" is anything were the weather is not sunny and calm. Because if you get anything else, like rain, high winds, lightning, and other weather phenomena, then the weather is disturbed.

[DanKellFla]

I'm sorry, I can't resist.
Disturbed weather: The kind of weather the make one nervous and may need some therapy. A lack of therapy leads to a Tropical Depresion.
Tropical Depresion: What happens after disturbed weather goes untreated for too long. Usually requires anti-depressants to get better. Untreated, may turn into a hurricane making many other depressed.

[HURAKAN]

I'm sorry, I can't resist.
Disturbed weather: The kind of weather the make one nervous and may need some therapy. A lack of therapy leads to a Tropical Depresion.
Tropical Depresion: What happens after disturbed weather goes untreated for too long. Usually requires anti-depressants to get better. Untreated, may turn into a hurricane making many other depressed.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a strong wave hinted at formation but was actually enhanced by ULL/trough border shear. I think it was trying to curl up, like Chris last year, but got split, as some were seeing yesterday. The wave axis was strongest to the south. The strong flaring yesterday was energy from this wave pulled north on the ULL synoptic flow and enhanced. Meanwhile the wave's surface energy continued along west where it decoupled from the main convection as wx57 pointed out. So, I was wrong about sure development - but for the reasons above. Guess this was this year's Chris - but I no longer draw a direct analogy to 2006 conditions because we are moister now and I expect more storms to come from this showing we are seeing now here and in the west GOM. Although, the ULL's swirling out there in the Atlantic, and the firm trough over the east coast are directly similar.

It would be cool if the decoupled moisture from this wave was the moisture the ULL was lacking to drill down and form and the ULL stole the convection from this wave and formed.

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[HURAKAN]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Hope is on the way!!!

[Speckled Trout 1]

Deb,
Prayers for a speedy recovery and quick return to S2K.

[cpdaman]

i think we should just keep are eye on the southern part of the wave (wxman's) (scenario 1)

[hurricanefloyd5]

if this wave can hold on and i doubt it could then it will be something to track then!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Weatherfreak14]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Hope is on the way!!!

Maybe, still doesent look as good as yesterday, i will mostly be following the chance of severe weather today in my area and i mite go on a chase.

[hial2]

Deb,though saddened by the bad news I was glad to read your "LOL"....Keep up the positive spirit,and be sure the with God's help EVERYTHING is possible!!

[Cookiely]

I will bet you all the first real storm will be around the last part of July or the first week of Aug and I will not be able to watch it or talk about it.
I told you all yesterday I had Doc appt to see if I had cancer or not. Well I do and my surgery is Aug 2. Maybe I can get a lap top and use it in the hospital.LOL
Deb

I will pray for your complete recovery. I'm a seven year survivor. My niece and her father are fighting and winning the battle against cancer.

[Blown Away]

Accuweather:

Tropics Still Quiet, but Showing Signs of Life
The Atlantic Basin remains tranquil at this time, but that may change over the next few days.

One wave we are tracking is located near 67 west, south of 21 north. This wave is beginning to split, with the southern portion moving westward, while the northern portion of the wave is moving slower and to the northwest. The northern portion is producing several clusters of thunderstorms, mainly north of the Leeward Islands. While this wave remains disorganized, some slow development is possible over the next few days and the situation will need to be watched. Showers and thunderstorms will move across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. Moisture from the wave could also reach South Florida and the Bahamas early next week.Another tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 40 west, south of 21 north, is moving west at 15-20 knots. Very little convection is found with this wave as dry air and African dust have overtaken it. Development at this time is not expected.

An upper-level area of low pressure between Bermuda and Puerto Rico is not becoming better organized and should get absorbed northward into an upper-level trough that will move to the East Coast over the weekend. It may tap into the same energy along the northern portion of the tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean, and could cause a surface storm to form off the East Coast later in the weekend or early next week. Regardless of whether or not the disturbance develops further, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact Bermuda over the weekend.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller

[SaveNola]

if this wave can hold on and i doubt it could then it will be something to track then!!!!!!!!!!!!

This post has more grammatical errors than it does actual words. Lol, just picking with you. Welcome to the U.S.!

[decgirl66]

I will bet you all the first real storm will be around the last part of July or the first week of Aug and I will not be able to watch it or talk about it.
I told you all yesterday I had Doc appt to see if I had cancer or not. Well I do and my surgery is Aug 2. Maybe I can get a lap top and use it in the hospital.LOL
Deb

Prayers for you and your family!