Long Range Forecaster: GOM at risk

[jasons2k]

I don't know how long this story will be up, but basically:

A long range forecaster, Dave Melita, says that with the upcoming pattern change, the Gulf Coast is at an increased risk for hurricanes, with virtually no threat for the East Coast. I've never heard of this forecaster so I can't vouch for the reliability of this.....

http://www.myfoxhouston.com/myfox/

[canetracker]

This is not much different than many other forecasters have been saying....Jeff Masters, New Orleans NWS Even our own Wxman57 posted something similar:

Funny, I basically told a group of major oil company executives the same thing on my Thursday morning briefing. I'm quite concerned that the pattern which has been in place for the past month -- weak trof over Texas, weaker Bermuda High -- would steer any developing hurricane northward toward LA/MS once it reached the Yucatan Peninsula if the same pattern were in place by August. And I don't see any sign of the pattern changing. It's a very bad setup for the central Gulf coast. But patterns CAN change. We had a major pattern change the 3rd week of August in 2006 that saved the U.S. from any hurricanes (protective trof off east U.S. Coast developed, combined with sinking air and wind shear across Gulf/Caribbean from El Nino).

I agree with this forecaster and IMO, this is going to be a 2004 start up with a 2005 set up.

[Jagno]

I agree with this forecaster and IMO, this is going to be a 2004 start up with a 2005 set up.

I've never heard it put quite this way but this phrase alone is enough to make me want to move.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

and Bill Read agreed too, from august on to october is going to be a roller coaster. imo

[Extremeweatherguy]

the original link took me somewhere else. Here is the new link...

http://www.myfoxhouston.com/myfox/pages ... geId=3.2.1

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is not much different than many other forecasters have been saying....Jeff Masters, New Orleans NWS Even our own Wxman57 posted something similar:

Funny, I basically told a group of major oil company executives the same thing on my Thursday morning briefing. I'm quite concerned that the pattern which has been in place for the past month -- weak trof over Texas, weaker Bermuda High -- would steer any developing hurricane northward toward LA/MS once it reached the Yucatan Peninsula if the same pattern were in place by August. And I don't see any sign of the pattern changing. It's a very bad setup for the central Gulf coast. But patterns CAN change. We had a major pattern change the 3rd week of August in 2006 that saved the U.S. from any hurricanes (protective trof off east U.S. Coast developed, combined with sinking air and wind shear across Gulf/Caribbean from El Nino).

I agree with this forecaster and IMO, this is going to be a 2004 start up with a 2005 set up.

Wait a second. What I have been hearing and what this video showed was that a different pattern is coming, not that it would stay the same. The above quoted prediction, on the other hand, seems completely opposite from what the other mets are saying. According to the video I just watched on this thread, the bermuda high should actually be getting stronger and the trough over Texas should be moving out (thus the reason our rain chances should lower). This scenario is much different than the quoted statement you posted.

When was that quoted prediction made? Was it recent? or was it made a while back before the models showed the pattern change coming?<<I answer my own questions below.

UPDATE: I just found that the quoted statement came from July 5th ( http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=95896&p=1565091&hilit=#p1565091
). That explained a lot! 2 weeks ago the models did not show any hint of change in the pattern. They do now though, and it looks like the pattern will actually be a bit different than what wxman57 originally predicted back at the beginning of the month. I am very interested in hearing his latest thoughts on the subject and if his ideas have changed any since then.

Let's just hope LA and MS can stay safe this year! They certainly do not need another storm anytime soon.

[Stormcenter]

I guess after Katrina you can expect these kind of posts to continue. Look folks "EVERYBODY' is at risk during hurricane season as long as they live along the coastlines of the Atlantic and
GOM. The GOM is at NO higher risk than anyone else. Every season a few forecasters predict doom and gloom for some specific area of the tropics. I do remember some similiar posts last year that never came to pass. All we can do is be prepared

[jasons2k]

Interesting from Jeff Lindner this morning. This is alo the pattern that was hinted at in some of the seasonal outlooks and what I was concerned about in my outlook back in May.

Tropics:

Overall pattern change in the upper air flow appears at least possible over the next 1-2 weeks. Deep troughing along the US E coast should lift out and be replaced with large scale ridging extending from the E Atlantic all the way into the Gulf of Mexico. This shifts the threat area and tracks of any tropical cyclones toward the west and the Gulf of Mexico. Main question is how long this pattern will remain locked in place and will there be anything in the tropics while the Gulf is vulnerable. Such patterns can lock into place for months, and if this is the case, will not bode well for the US Gulf coast as we head into the active months of hurricane season.

[gtalum]

What does that potentially mean for the Florida Gulf Coast? More Katrina and Rita type tracks where the storm passes to our south and curves up into the Gulf?

[Blown Away]

This is going to be a 2004 start up, with a 2005 set up, and hopefully a 2006 finish.

[jasons2k]

What does that potentially mean for the Florida Gulf Coast? More Katrina and Rita type tracks where the storm passes to our south and curves up into the Gulf?

Potentially during the peak of the season (Aug-Sep), but when the westerlies start up again look for systems to recurve into Florida.

I am very concerned for the FL Panhandle & West Coast for the 2nd half of the season. The TCHP in the NW Caribbean/S GOM near the Yucatan channel is off the charts, even compared to 2005.

[jasons2k]

1) Let's please keep the politics out

2) If we'd like to discuss the implications of hurricanes on gas prices, let's create a new thread in the OT forum. This thread is to discuss the upcoming pattern change and its implied threat to the W/NW GOM. Thanks.

[Emmett_Brown]

I think this kind of forecast is unique to the up and coming private meterology sector. Dave Melita is with a private company in Houston called Weather Insight. Increasingly, it appears that private weather companies are finding a niche predicting weather trends and offering products that government agencies dont provide. Aside from a stray comment in the local NWS discussion, this kind of speculation is largely the realm of Accuweather, and similar organizations, and not the NWS.

I think this is a good thing... private industry needs lead times that are larger than those provided by NOAA.

Anyway, Dave Melita has an MS in Meterology, and a lot of experience, so his forecast should be given some consideration. Interesting that this is not a forecast for a specific storm, but just an overall pattern setup, and it garnered so much hype. I think Fox overplayed it quite a bit, considering such patterns can come and go, and if there are no storms to get steered, it wont matter. Hurricanes are fairly rare weather events, even in these active times. But, with the brunt of the season coming and the pattern shifting, it does paint an ominous picture for landfalling storms.

[Stormcenter]

I think this kind of forecast is unique to the up and coming private meterology sector. Dave Melita is with a private company in Houston called Weather Insight. Increasingly, it appears that private weather companies are finding a niche predicting weather trends and offering products that government agencies dont provide. Aside from a stray comment in the local NWS discussion, this kind of speculation is largely the realm of Accuweather, and similar organizations, and not the NWS.

I think this is a good thing... private industry needs lead times that are larger than those provided by NOAA.

Anyway, Dave Melita has an MS in Meterology, and a lot of experience, so his forecast should be given some consideration. Interesting that this is not a forecast for a specific storm, but just an overall pattern setup, and it garnered so much hype. I think Fox overplayed it quite a bit, considering such patterns can come and go, and if there are no storms to get steered, it wont matter. Hurricanes are fairly rare weather events, even in these active times. But, with the brunt of the season coming and the pattern shifting, it does paint an ominous picture for landfalling storms.

Another great post...thanks Emmett_Brown

[jasons2k]

Ditto and thanks for the information Emmett

[canetracker]

Let's just hope LA and MS can stay safe this year! They certainly do not need another storm anytime soon.

I totally agree. My point is that people have been predicting a GOM season for a while now. Who knows where they will hit.

Anyway, Dave Melita has an MS in Meterology, and a lot of experience, so his forecast should be given some consideration. Interesting that this is not a forecast for a specific storm, but just an overall pattern setup, and it garnered so much hype. I think Fox overplayed it quite a bit, considering such patterns can come and go, and if there are no storms to get steered, it wont matter. Hurricanes are fairly rare weather events, even in these active times. But, with the brunt of the season coming and the pattern shifting, it does paint an ominous picture for landfalling storms.

Great post, I kind of take all of this as a be prepared for the worst and hope for the best type warning.

This is going to be a 2004 start up, with a 2005 set up, and hopefully a 2006 finish.

I really like the part that you added "and hopefully a 2006 finish". That is what I am hoping for.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't like the look of this season either. I would not be surprised if two major hurricanes did affect the Texas coast. It has happened before in 1886, the year of the Indianola Hurricane.

[cpdaman]

the gulf of mexico may be at increased risk regardless of wether Wxman's original post varify's or any changes in the upcoming pattern like master's had predicted, because either way there is less shear forecast in the gulf

what good will an increase in your porfolio be if your job is shipped off to china or india before you retire
or when immigrant workers are the only one's willing to work after the yen carry trade unwinds (thanks to japan buying iran oil in yen and yen appreciating) and collapses overleveraged derivative markets domestically and abroad who are already feeling a strain from the fallout from housing and subprime lending. leading to an extreme two tier society of have's and have not's. (but i will hopefully and probably be proven differently)

[southerngale]

1) Let's please keep the politics out

2) If we'd like to discuss the implications of hurricanes on gas prices, let's create a new thread in the OT forum. This thread is to discuss the upcoming pattern change and its implied threat to the W/NW GOM. Thanks.

I'm splitting them out and will be removing the ones that crossed the line.

Please stay on topic, folks.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The heat content over the Caribbean is very high...
I would expect a very strong Caribbean hurricane perhaps
several this season. And lets hope and pray
that the bermuda high doesnt steer anything
towards the gulf coast.