Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

[punkyg]

I know this wave is gonna dissipate, but i'd rather look at this then the wave
north of the eastern carribean.

[Sanibel]

The important thing being, Africa is producing good waves. If the pattern changes and Africa continues to pump out well-formed waves we could see systems forming.

[Aric Dunn]

very well defined... Low pressure.. may have to watch it .. getting close to that time...


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

ssts. are plenty warm enough now.. the only thing that may bother it would be sal .. but right now its far to the north .. so could be interesting

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I must say that the infrared posted above
shows a very impressive and vigorous
disturbance moving off of Africa.

[Opal storm]

Well the last wave made it all the way to the Caribbean, we'll have to watch this one.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's very common for disturbances to look this strong while still over Africa. I've seen many over the years look like tropical storms already, especially right when they hit the coast. But unless it's about mid-August or later, they typically fall apart within about 24-36 hours after emerging offshore. Water temps are still marginal and it would normally have to survive to about 50W before it had much chance of development. Still, if other factors are very favorable, they do occasionally develop this early in the season.

JP

Bertha was a Cape Verde type storm that developed, I think, on July 7th. Definitely the exception, rather than the rule.

[cycloneye]

There has been less sal outbreaks recently.Yes,sal is still present but not as thick and so big in coverage as there were in May and June.

[MiamiensisWx]

There has been less sal outbreaks recently.Yes,sal is still present but not as thick and so big in coverage as there were in May and June.

I disagree. This stable air mass ranks among the largest I have seen in 2007. It is reminescent of 2006. The recent mid-level SAL outbreak is clearly visible in IR imagery - that is rare! Look here. It is more evident in visible loops. I suspect it is a byproduct from the strong easterly surge over the eastern Atlantic. Conditions are hostile; look at the quantity of upper lows and upper-level shear. The northern branch of the Caribbean wave likely will not develop; the thermodynamics are unfavorable. The basin is a mess. The subtropical jet is too strong. The counterclockwise flow has been very vigorous over the Caribbean Sea. I cannot see a near-term positive sign for development...

[cycloneye]

So what you are implying is that 2007 will be less active than 1997 and 2006? So let's say those words Season Cancel.

[MiamiensisWx]

So what you are implying is that 2007 will be less active than 1997 and 2006? So let's say those words Season Cancel.

You're wrongly assuming that I said, "2007 will not meet people's expectations." The "near-term" does not include August or September. The "near-term" equals "short term" - it reflects the pattern through 24 hours. I think we will see an active season, but I don't expect development within the next 24 hours. The lack of activity is normal in July... I guess Andrew92 did not notice my posts when I chastised several people for declaring "season cancel!" I'm not impatient. Anyone who knows my attitude will see that is the case.

[Andrew92]

*delete post*

[Andrew92]

OK, sorry MiamiensisWx that I missed them after reading your edit. I am a human being, make mistakes, and miss posts like any other.

OK, back to the topic?

Impressive wave, but I'd like to see it PERSIST a little longer before calling for any type of development.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Ok MiamiensisWxI missed the near term thing.

About this new wave,it's a wait and see game.

[Cyclone1]

If it makes it to 35-40W, then it'll be up for possible development.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
Oh my gosh its still there it hasn't diminished since it started moving off of africa,
but listen i say by sunday the wave will be gone, because most of the wave never make even though the wave south of the bahamas did survive the waters of
the eastern and central atlantic. come on guys you get my point!

I give this wave a 20% chance to develop.


don't hate me cause i'm beautiful

[HURAKAN]

[punkyg]

Its pretty
and now there talking about.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 18W S OF 17N
MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N WITH NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE LOW
AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 21W.

[cycloneye]

Cape Verde Observations



Interesting the wind directions and a somewhat low pressure 1011 mbs as the wave moves mainly south of those islands with the mid level circulation SSE of Sal.

[wxman57]

It certainly does look like one of the stronger waves that's moved off the west coast of Africa this season. But as has been said, they often look like tropical storms as they move offshore, only to fall apart a day or two later. Most likely, this wave will not develop due to the still-hostile conditions in the region. But it won't be very long before a wave moves offshore there and DOESN'T fall apart. Probably the first week of August.

As for the 2007 season, I think it's going along just as I had expected. The same models that had predicted a full-blown La Nina by the end of May were the same models that had predicted La Nina last season. But the models were 180 degrees off in 2006 and a moderate El Nino developed near peak season. The European model had been saying that any La Nina would not develop until September or October, so it wasn't going to be a factor early this season. This would lead to a normal start of the real action (1st or 2nd week of August).

I explained in another thread (about what an active cycle is) that the "active" phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (warm-phase AMO) does not mean more named storms will develop. In fact, the Bermuda high tends to be a bit stronger during this warm phase, leading to a little stronger low-level shear in the deep tropics. I did a great deal of research into the numbers of named storms in warm vs. cool-phase AMO, thinking I'd find more named storms when the water was warmer. But that wasn't the case. I did find just slightly fewer named storms when the Atlantic heats up. But I did find that there was a higher percentage of hurricanes with warmer water, and the number of major hurricanes more than doubled with greater heat content (1.5-2.0 per season for cool phase, 5-6 for warm phase). So don't expect as many named storms each season as we've seen in the past 5-10 years. The average number of named storms in the Atlantic basin is close to 12. This accounts for the estimated 3.2 missed per season prior to satellite (research by Chris Landsea/Roger Pielke Jr.). You might remember that near the start of the last warm-phase AMO (began in 1926), there were some seasons with a tremendous number of named storms (1933). But, soon after, the numbers dropped. However, that's the period when the U.S. was pummeled by many big hurricanes (1940s-1960s). We're now approaching the same pattern as back in the 1940s-1960s. Less named storms, greater landfall risk is what climatology would suggest.

I'd made a web page about 5-6 years ago concerning the AMO and possible future impacts. It's still up:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

What do I expect this year? I think Dr. Gray/Phil Klotzback will cut back their predicted number of named storms to 14-15 in early August. That's still above normal, but only because of STS Andrea and the very short-lived Barry. There is tremendous heat content across the Gulf and NW Caribbean (greater than 2005) Anything moving into that region by mid to late August could well become a BIG problem for the northern Gulf coast. Climatology still suggests a strong correlation between this current pattern and a significant increase in the probability of a major hurricane impact between Florida and the Carolinas as well.

Don't focus on the numbers, look at the similarity of the pattern to what was observed during the 1940s-1960s. Many devastating hurricanes hit during seasons of normal to below-normal activity.