Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

if this wave can hold on and i doubt it could then it will be something to track then!!!!!!!!!!!!

This post has more grammatical errors than it does actual words. Lol, just picking with you. Welcome to the U.S.!

his from florida.. lol .. not a alien.. lol

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So the discussion- the official one- said that
conditions may become favorable...
I will keep an eye on it.

[harmclan]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 20 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 33N AND 66W FOR 22/1800Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[HURAKAN]

I was not expecting that!!! It seems they want to be ready in case anything pops!!!

[Aric Dunn]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 20 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 33N AND 66W FOR 22/1800Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

that is for the low that the models are trying to form off the Carolinas ...

that says 66w ?? weird thats where the GFS 12z eventually forms the low near the SE bahamas... hmm...right now though .. that upper low is just not moving.. anywhere i cant see anything forming up there by sunday..

[windstorm99]

What ever developes of the carolinas will be extra tropical in nature due fast upper level winds.

[Aric Dunn]

What ever developes of the carolinas will be extra tropical in nature due fast upper level winds.

well the NHC would not send and plane if they though it was going to be cold core.....

[windstorm99]

What ever developes of the carolinas will be extra tropical in nature due fast upper level winds.

well the NHC would not send and plane if they though it was going to be cold core.....

Dr.Masters states something similar...

We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. Most of the models are predicting the formation of a low pressure system along the tail end of this front by Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm--or possibly a subtropical storm--due to the presence of high wind shear. NHC has put a Hurricane Hunter aircraft on standby to investigate the region on Sunday afternoon, if necessary. Even if the low is extratropical, it may be able to suck up plenty of tropical moisture and douse the mid-Atlantic coast and/or New England with heavy rains as early as Monday.

[harmclan]

that is for the low that the models are trying to form off the Carolinas ...

I saw no specific thread for the potential low pressure system associated with the cold front extending into the Atlantic and didn't feel it necessary to create a new thread for an undetermined reconnaissance flight.

[Aric Dunn]

that is for the low that the models are trying to form off the Carolinas ...

I saw no specific thread for the potential low pressure system associated with the cold front extending into the Atlantic and didn't feel it necessary to create a new thread for an undetermined reconnaissance flight.

well it gets really tricky.. becasue .. the area.. near the bahamas.. is forecasted to merge with the system of the carolina.. all the models except the 12z gfs do that.. the gfs actually develops the low near the SE bahamas brings it north then loops it SW to near the central bahamas..

its going to be interesting.. i think..

[wxman57]

What ever developes of the carolinas will be extra tropical in nature due fast upper level winds.

well the NHC would not send and plane if they though it was going to be cold core.....

Note that the "possible" recon is for the upper-low that'll be just west of Bermuda tomorrow, not for the frontal low near the Carolinas. Thus the 33N/66W point they mention. But this low will likely be kicked out to the north by the approaching upper trof, so development chances appear slim. It can take many days for an upper low to gain convection then develop a surface low.

[Aric Dunn]

What ever developes of the carolinas will be extra tropical in nature due fast upper level winds.

well the NHC would not send and plane if they though it was going to be cold core.....

Note that the "possible" recon is for the upper-low that'll be just west of Bermuda tomorrow, not for the frontal low near the Carolinas. Thus the 33N/66W point they mention. But this low will likely be kicked out to the north by the approaching upper trof, so development chances appear slim. It can take many days for an upper low to gain convection then develop a surface low.

yeah i mentioned .. that it was the where the upper low is.. but since the ULl is on its way out.. there is a chance that at the surface which the models so show something trying to develop.. in that area on sunday.. .. could happen.. did you notice that it was for sunday and not tomorrow.. the ULL should be moving out. and some surface feature should be in place.. probably as the models are pointing out.. a merging of the low that may develop on the Carolinas and the developing low north of hispanola.. so yeah .. 33n 66 w is where the upper low is now but it should not be there around sunday

[Berwick Bay]

With all the talk of possible recon further north, I don't think that the wave itself in the Carribean should be forgotten. Thunderstorm activity has increased this afternoon along the wave axis itself which is now south of the Dominican Republic. I still think that this should be monitored as it moves further west. I think that thunderstorm activity may conglomerate around the north end of the Wave Axis, (the way it is now), but further west to around just south of the central Cuban coast. About 21N and 79W. Think that the ULL in the Carribean may have shifted slightly west by then, and that this will be the area to watch. Judging from yesterday's posts I am aware that this scenario is given little to no credence by others on the board, but thats okay, I've been alone before.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 202115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW INTERACTING WITH WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WWWW

[fci]

I'm sorry, I can't resist.
Disturbed weather: The kind of weather the make one nervous and may need some therapy. A lack of therapy leads to a Tropical Depresion.
Tropical Depresion: What happens after disturbed weather goes untreated for too long. Usually requires anti-depressants to get better. Untreated, may turn into a hurricane making many other depressed.

DITTO!!!!
That was GREAT!!!

[fci]

if this wave can hold on and i doubt it could then it will be something to track then!!!!!!!!!!!!

This post has more grammatical errors than it does actual words. Lol, just picking with you. Welcome to the U.S.!

Yikes!!! ..........you are cold!
Remind me not to get on your bad side.
And welcome to the U.S.

(fci frantically looks for grammatical errors before hitting the "submit" button)

[Berwick Bay]

T-storm activity in Carribean itself beginning to rebound some along wave axis itself south of Dominican Republic.

[Aric Dunn]

T-storm activity in Carribean itself beginning to rebound some along wave axis itself south of Dominican Republic.

look north of hispanola.. the carrib part of the wave .. not going to happen south of cuba ... maybe in the western carrib.. in 3 or so days.. if not then maybe in the BOC in 5 days.. .. but not in the near term..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

i know the official discusison said favorable conditions
for the system in the atlantic but could
something happen with the one in the caribbean?

[wxman57]

i know the official discussion said favorable conditions
for the system in the atlantic but could
something happen with the one in the caribbean?

Almost certainly no development in the central/western Caribbean with this wave. Once it crosses the Yucatan and turns northwest toward around Tampico, thunderstorms may flare-up and there may be a narrow window for potential development.