Long Range Forecaster: GOM at risk

[Stormcenter]

Let's just hope LA and MS can stay safe this year! They certainly do not need another storm anytime soon.

I totally agree. My point is that people have been predicting a GOM season for a while now.


What do call to 2005? I think that could have easily been called a GOM season.
As I've stated many times before if any of you are anticipating
anything like to 2004 or 2005 in 2007 then you are setting yourself up for a letdown.
Yes we will have some storms but nothing like those above mentioned seasons.

Who knows where they will hit.

Anyway, Dave Melita has an MS in Meterology, and a lot of experience, so his forecast should be given some consideration. Interesting that this is not a forecast for a specific storm, but just an overall pattern setup, and it garnered so much hype. I think Fox overplayed it quite a bit, considering such patterns can come and go, and if there are no storms to get steered, it wont matter. Hurricanes are fairly rare weather events, even in these active times. But, with the brunt of the season coming and the pattern shifting, it does paint an ominous picture for landfalling storms.

Great post, I kind of take all of this as a be prepared for the worst and hope for the best type warning.

This is going to be a 2004 start up, with a 2005 set up, and hopefully a 2006 finish.

I really like the part that you added "and hopefully a 2006 finish". That is what I am hoping for.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In case anyone was wondering..the latest from JB is this:

He thinks that with the downward motion pulse about to re-enter the Atlantic, that storm activity will be normal for this time of the year through mid August (He thinks may be 2-3 named storms, if even, between now and August 15th). Thereafter though he expects a ramp up in activity come late August and into September as an upward motion pulse re-enters the basin during peak season. He said that 8 named storms in as little as a 4-5 week period would even be possible during that time.

[Ptarmigan]

In case anyone was wondering..the latest from JB is this:

He thinks that with the downward motion pulse about to re-enter the Atlantic, that storm activity will be normal for this time of the year through mid August (He thinks may be 2-3 named storms, if even, between now and August 15th). Thereafter though he expects a ramp up in activity come late August and into September as an upward motion pulse re-enters the basin during peak season. He said that 8 named storms in as little as a 4-5 week period would even be possible during that time.

I would not be all that surprised. 2004 was very active and many storms formed in a short time period. 2005 was spread out from June to December. September 2002 had 8 storms form. I would not be surprised to see this September being very active, more so than in 2002.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

GOM at highest risk this year. Well all I have to say is perhaps, than again perhaps not. One must keep in mind the fact that everyone; a) was completely off base with their predictions last season, b) most thought La Nina would form by this Summer, which looks more like neutral conditions prevailing now. Bottom line if 2006 tought us only one thing it is that NO ONE KNOWS FOR CETAIN WHAT WILL OR WILL NOT HAPPEN BEFORE NOVEMBER 30TH, AND THAT EVERYONE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SHOULD BE PREPARED.

[wxmann_91]

In case anyone was wondering..the latest from JB is this:

He thinks that with the downward motion pulse about to re-enter the Atlantic, that storm activity will be normal for this time of the year through mid August (He thinks may be 2-3 named storms, if even, between now and August 15th). Thereafter though he expects a ramp up in activity come late August and into September as an upward motion pulse re-enters the basin during peak season. He said that 8 named storms in as little as a 4-5 week period would even be possible during that time.

I would not be all that surprised. 2004 was very active and many storms formed in a short time period. 2005 was spread out from June to December. September 2002 had 8 storms form. I would not be surprised to see this September being very active, more so than in 2002.

No offense, but it is generally unwise in any situation to predict something that breaks a record, unless you have some serious evidence to back it up.

[canetracker]

Stormcenter: I am sorry but did not find what your reply was as it was buried in my quote:
Your reply: "What do call to 2005? I think that could have easily been called a GOM season.
As I've stated many times before if any of you are anticipating
anything like to 2004 or 2005 in 2007 then you are setting yourself up for a letdown.
Yes we will have some storms but nothing like those above mentioned seasons."

Number 1: I will not be in for a let down
Number 2: No one can predict what will form, if anything. However, the forecast is in General pointing to "2005 type steering patterns" if something was to develop and not to the number of storms.
Number 3: In regard to 2004, this was mentioned in regard to a late startup. I dont think we will see anything soon.
Number 4: another wise poster, Hybridstorm_November2001 posted, a few posts above, that: "NO ONE KNOWS FOR CETAIN WHAT WILL OR WILL NOT HAPPEN BEFORE NOVEMBER 30TH, AND THAT EVERYONE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SHOULD BE PREPARED"
I totally agree with that, I will take in the info and be prepared.

[Stormcenter]

Stormcenter: I am sorry but did not find what your reply was as it was buried in my quote:
Your reply: "What do call to 2005? I think that could have easily been called a GOM season.
As I've stated many times before if any of you are anticipating
anything like to 2004 or 2005 in 2007 then you are setting yourself up for a letdown.
Yes we will have some storms but nothing like those above mentioned seasons."

Number 1: I will not be in for a let down
Number 2: No one can predict what will form, if anything. However, the forecast is in General pointing to "2005 type steering patterns" if something was to develop and not to the number of storms.
Number 3: In regard to 2004, this was mentioned in regard to a late startup. I dont think we will see anything soon.
Number 4: another wise poster, Hybridstorm_November2001 posted, a few posts above, that: "NO ONE KNOWS FOR CETAIN WHAT WILL OR WILL NOT HAPPEN BEFORE NOVEMBER 30TH, AND THAT EVERYONE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SHOULD BE PREPARED"
I totally agree with that, I will take in the info and be prepared.

All of you points are well taken canetracker. Thanks for taking the time to reply.

[Normandy]

Nobody is setting themselves up for a let down, and folks getting worried about this proposed pattern shift have EVERY right to get worried about it. If all these models are hinting at it, and highly respected mets agree and believe this pattern will occur, then I would be VERY worried living on the Gulf Coast. Doesn't matter if it lasts for a week or for two months....that one week it lasts could be the time when a wave actually has good organization, becomes a named storm, becomes a hurricane, and tracks into the GOM and destroys a coastline.

Chastising people for worrying is totally uncalled for, as they worry for good reason. And if you aren't worried when a pattern is setup to send a hurricane your way, then really I would say somethin is wrong.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Not when reliable pattern models can not predict any further than 14 days absolute maximum. That would put use into when, early August, and most of the activity starts in late August.

People, including some of the pros sadly, REALLY need to calm down and stop trying to hype 2007 into a repeat of 2005 (much as they tried to do the same last year this time). Sometimes I think it is forgotten that we are praying on peoples' fears, frightening them that their still fragile lives and livelihoods, just starting to recover all the Gulf Coast, will all be taken away from them again, and all the hard steps taken on the long road to recovery will be wash away. I liken it to terrorism; everyone knows that another attack will eventually occur; still they do not want to be remained of that fact every single day. How could people live their lives under such conditions? Hell who would even want to exist in such a relentless state of fear. I say vigilance yes, paranoia no.

In addition the glee with which many, usually living outside the effect region of the GOM, make such proclamations of impending and certain doom makes me sick. It has really taken away much of the joy I once felt for tracking this powerful weather systems. Truly who is worse; the mindless weather patterns that spawn and steer hurricanes, or the people that monger fear and hope (or dare I say even pray) for the devastation landfalls along heavily populated areas will cause? That is the question I leave you with. Answer it as you see fit. I can not tell you or anyone else, nor would I want to, what the answer is or how to feel.

[TheShrimper]

Any individual that is intimidated or falls victim by/to these proclamations, deserves to be/do so. Fact is fact, if you live coastally from Brownsville to Portland Me., any long term prognostication should not cause panic or surprise in regards to the potential impact. If it does, you are a fool. It should be realized that this forecasting is far from being an exact science. A missed trough can mean the difference between a S. Texas hit, and a Jersey Shores landfall. Competant individuals realize this and put no creedence into these claims knowing they are almost always subject to change. Point is, you live on the coast, be ready, knowing nothing is etched in stone. If that is comprenensible, you'll be fine. If you are troubled with that risk and are going to belly ache when the inevitable transpires, then do not subject yourself to that potential. There are other places to live. On the whole, I feel the majority of us know the implications. For the ones that do not, understand the above mentioned, and you'll be fine.

[KatDaddy]

You are totally correct Shimper and everyone else who feels the same. Every hurricane season you better be prepared if you live in a risk area. Thats it....nothing else to say.

[canetracker]

Not when reliable pattern models can not predict any further than 14 days absolute maximum. That would put use into when, early August, and most of the activity starts in late August.

I totally agree with this part of your post. The models don't even know 4-5 days out where a fully formed cane will hit. However, I don't fault the met's who are trying to warn people of potential danger. I for one am not affected by it, but take it as a warning to be prepared.

Any individual that is intimidated or falls victim by/to these proclamations, deserves to be/do so. Fact is fact, if you live coastally from Brownsville to Portland Me., any long term prognostication should not cause panic or surprise in regards to the potential impact. If it does, you are a fool. It should be realized that this forecasting is far from being an exact science. A missed trough can mean the difference between a S. Texas hit, and a Jersey Shores landfall. Competant individuals realize this and put no creedence into these claims knowing they are almost always subject to change. Point is, you live on the coast, be ready, knowing nothing is etched in stone. If that is comprenensible, you'll be fine. If you are troubled with that risk and are going to belly ache when the inevitable transpires, then do not subject yourself to that potential. There are other places to live. On the whole, I feel the majority of us know the implications. For the ones that do not, understand the above mentioned, and you'll be fine.

I agree with you too, especially the bolded part. I told my husband just last night that there is really no safe place to live. You are always subject to some type of disaster. However, I choose to live here. Great post to both of you!

[perk]

Great post Shrimper, i could not have said it better myself.