Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thank you.
So i'll keep my eyes on the atlantic part of it
with the heaviest convection.

[Sanibel]

Interesting thing, I don't want to make a new topic for it but there's a big convection-less swirl in the Atlantic above Brazil east of the Windwards. Interesting since this is like that other naked system last week. In my "2006 Repeat" thread I made a note to look out for another dry circulation and there it is.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting thing, I don't want to make a new topic for it but there's a big convection-less swirl in the Atlantic above Brazil east of the Windwards. Interesting since this is like that other naked system last week. In my "2006 Repeat" thread I made a note to look out for another dry circulation and there it is.

actually it really reminds me of what franklin formed from .. a couple years ago.. .. it was just the same thing but it did not form till the bahamas.. lol

[windstorm99]

NHC-8:05PM Discussion...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S
OF 18N. SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO
HAVE BROKEN OFF TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS POISED TO TRACK
NWWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC SFC RIDGE. THIS PORTION
IS BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA. THE CARIBBEAN
PORTION IS TRACKING WWD 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
68W-74W.

[Nimbus]

The ULL near Cuba that should be a steering element hasn't moved much today. I had expected it to roll west but what do the forecasters think?

[pojo]

We are keeping our eyes peeled at the possibility of an LLI on Sunday.

[Cyclone1]

We are keeping our eyes peeled at the possibility of an LLI on Sunday.

Cool, good to know.

[pojo]

We are keeping our eyes peeled at the possibility of an LLI on Sunday.

Cool, good to know.

It was announced this morning on the POD and the PSBL Tasking is covered on page 22.

[vaffie]

I thought you guys might be interested to know that the wind is right now blowing out of the north just to the west of the wave in Les Cayes, Haiti and out of the south in Barahona, DR just to the east.


http://au.weather.yahoo.com/HAXX/HAXX0002/index_c.html
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78482.html

[Nimbus]

From the water vapor imagery it appears both ULL's are weakening.
That just confirms the GFS analysis.







Looks like high pressure will push all the way west till it borders with the flow in front of trough. Now the missing piece of the puzzle is the location/speed of development of LLC formation.

Generally (for the southern part of the wave) South and Slow development would yield more of a left track north and fast means fish.

[Aric Dunn]

Some one needs to change this to .. the WEST and SW carrib wave..

the wave from the central carrib is in the western carrib.. I think .. not sure yet.. but something interesting may happen here today.. (large increase in convection )

not sure yet.. but lets watch that..

[Aric Dunn]

hey look what i found.. LOL .. you got to love the NAM .. ()

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

yeah yeah . its the NAM i know.. blah blah blah..

[alan1961]

yes this little blob just exiting South America and forecast by the NAM model to move up towards the Yucatan could be interesting if it can flare up enough..something to watch though

[Aric Dunn]

yes this little blob just exiting South America and forecast by the NAM model to move up towards the Yucatan could be interesting if it can flare up enough..something to watch though

the blob.. yeah there is one.. but the tropical wave that is in the area.. will be the feature at the surface to get things going.. i think.. but yeah its something to watch.. even though it is the NAM

[tailgater]

hey look what i found.. LOL .. you got to love the NAM .. ()

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

yeah yeah . its the NAM i know.. blah blah blah..

I did notice a little mid-level rotation down there that doesn't seem to be from a collapsing T-storm I don't see how it gets drawn that far north though. But a large trough lifting out to the North, I guess it deserves a wait see.

[Nimbus]

The front is really digging south so only the southernmost part of the wave has much chance of being a gulf threat. That blob near 12N looks interesting. Thanks for the NAM link Aric!

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon is a go for sunday!

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 21 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-059 (CORRECTED TAKE OFF TIME)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 22/1300Z
D. 32.0N 64.0W
E. 18Z 21Z
F. 1500 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/0100Z
D. 35.0N 64.5W
F. 05Z 09Z
G. SFC 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SMR

[cycloneye]

I posted that in the thread that has the area of interest and that is Aric's thread of Bermuda and Western Atlantic.

[tailgater]

The area coming off South America.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/204.jpg
Could this become what 57 was speaking of a couple of days ago possibily crossing the Yucatan and becoming something of a rain maker for Texas?

[tailgater]

12 UTC NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml
12 UTC of NGM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
12 UTC GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Who do you believe?