SW Indian: Out-of-season 90S INVEST

[Chacor]

First INVEST of the new TC year has popped up near Diego Garcia. Don't expect any development but it'll be interesting to watch this pre-season INVEST...

[Chacor]

JTWC has begun sat fixes...

070
TPXS10 PGTW 210622

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA

B. 21/0530Z

C. 6.5S/1

D. 74.7E/8

E. SIX/MET7

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS (21/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .25 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL
FOR DT OF 1.0. PT IS UNREP AT 2.0. DBO DT.

TORREY

[P.K.]

FQIO25 FIMP 210000
1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, SATURDAY 21 JULY 2007 AT 0000UTC.

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE.

NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS

TOGETHER WITH LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS EXIST IN AREA BOUNDED BY
LATITUDES 13S TO 23S ,LONGITUDES 55E TO 80E AND ALSO IN AREA
BETWEEN EQUATOR AND 10S LONGITUDE 40E TO 50E.

T.O.O: 210030Z


PART 2 : GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 21 JULY 2007 - 0000 UTC

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 06S 65E, 07S 70E INTO WAVE NEAR 07S 76E THEN 05S
85E, 03S 95E.

HIGH 1029 HPA NEAR 31S 60E EXTENDS A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 30S 70E,
30S 80E, 29S 95E.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 23S 80E, 22S 93E, 25S 105E.


PART 3 : AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO SUNDAY 22 JULY 2007 AT 0000UTC.

SOUTH 8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20. SEA MODERATE TO ROUGH.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. VISIBILITY MODERATE.


NORTH 8/1, 8/3: SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-25 GUSTING
LOCALLY 30-35. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
VISIBILITY MODERATE.


8/2: SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 STRENGTHENING 20-25 GUSTING
30-35 IN NORTH. SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN. VISIBILITY
MODERATE TO POOR.


8/4: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-25 GUSTING LOCALLY 35. SEA ROUGH TO
LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE.


8/5: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTING LOCALLY 30-35 BUT LOCALLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY 10-15 IN EXTREME NORTH. SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY MODERATE TO POOR IN
SHOWERS.


8/6: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTING LOCALLY 25-30. SEA MODERATE
TO ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY
POOR IN SHOWERS.


8/7: SOUTH EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH BECOMING SOUTHERLY 15-20 IN NORTH
BUT LOCALLY 20-25 GUSTING 35. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. FEW
SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MAINLY GOOD.


PART 4 : OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS: LITTLE CHANGE.

T.O.O 21/0030UTC=

END=

[Chacor]

21/1430 UTC 6.5S 74.6E T1.0/1.0 90S -- South Indian Ocean

Also, 13:11UTC QSCAT pass..

[Cyclenall]

Isn't this completely out of season? It's like an invest in the Atlantic in the middle of January.

[Cyclone1]

Ok, good. This is the right thread. Looks fairly decent for a July storm.

[Cyclone1]

Isn't this completely out of season? It's like an invest in the Atlantic in the middle of January.

Well, technically, The SHEM season runs year round, and the Atlantic runs only half of a year. So it's not as rare as a January Atlantic invest, but it's still pretty rare.

[Chacor]

Isn't this completely out of season? It's like an invest in the Atlantic in the middle of January.

Well, technically, The SHEM season runs year round, and the Atlantic runs only half of a year. So it's not as rare as a January Atlantic invest, but it's still pretty rare.

Uhm, no, there is no "SHEM season". The Southwest Indian Ocean season starts in November and runs through May.

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8S 74.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 211122Z AMSU
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE DEVELOPING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BASED ON THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
AND DEVELOPING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[P.K.]

FQIO25 FIMP 220000
1:31:08:11:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, SUNDAY 22 JULY 2007 AT 0000UTC.

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CAUSING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE EAST
SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS WITH ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY
ROUGH SEAS IN REGION BOUNDED BY LATITUDES 10S AND 25S AND
LONGITUDES 55E AND 85E.

T.O.O: 220030Z


PART 2 : GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SUNDAY 22 JULY 2007 - 0000 UTC

EQUATORIAL TROUGH ALONG 04S 55E 03S 60E 03S 65E 04S 70E INTO LOW
1003 HPA NEAR 07S 72E CONTINUES ALONG 05S 80E 04S 84E 03S 90E
INTO LOW 1004 HPA NEAR 05S 90E CONTINUES ALONG 04S 100E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 12S 60E 11S 56E 10S 55E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 14S 78E 13S 75E 10S 72E.

WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR 30S 70E 29S 75E 30S 80E 31S 85E 33S
90E.

HIGH 1028 HPA NEAR 30S 72E.


PART 3 : AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO MONDAY 23 JULY 2007 AT 0000 UTC.

8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH, SOUTH EASTERLY 20-25 GUSTING
LOCALLY 30-35 IN NORTH. ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. VISIBILITY
GOOD.


8/2: SOUTH EASTERLY 20-25. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35 IN NORTH WEST.
ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE.


8/3 , 8/4: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 20-25. LOCALLY
GUSTING 30-35 . ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
8/4. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN 8/4, GOOD ELSEWHERE.


CENTRAL EAST 8/5 : CLOCKWISE 15 AROUND LOW 1003 HPA NEAR 06S 75E
REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE IN SOUTH. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
SHOWERY WITH THUNDERSTORMS . VISIBILITY POOR.


REMAINDER 8/5: SOUTHERLY 10 IN EXTREME NORTH WEST, WESTERLY TO
WEST SOUTH WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH EAST, SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST
SOUTH EASTERLY ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTING 25-30 IN THUNDERY
SHOWERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.


8/6: CLOCKWISE 15-20 IN CENTRAL EAST. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20 IN
SOUTH, WESTERLY 10 IN NORTH. LOCALLY GUSTING 25-30 IN SOUTH.
MODERATE TO ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY
POOR.


8/7: SOUTH EASTERLY 20 IN SOUTH, SOUTH WESTERLY 20 IN NORTH.
LOCALLY GUSTING 25-30 . ROUGH. VISIBILITY GOOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.



PART 4 : OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

LOW NEAR 07S 72E HAS A TENDENCY TO MAINTAIN ITS MOVEMENT TOWARDS
THE WEST.


T.O.O : 22/0050 UT=


END=

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 74.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 72.8E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 220848Z AMSRE MICROWAVE
PASS INDICATE A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE LLCC DOES APPEAR TO HAVE
TIGHTENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT DIEGO
GARCIA INDICATE 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF ALMOST 5 MB. THE MOST
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AT 220142Z INDICATES STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE DISTURBANCE, CONTRIBUTING TO THE
EXPOSED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

972
TPXS10 PGTW 221159

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA

B. 22/1130Z

C. 7.3S/0

D. 73.0E/0

E. SIX/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (22/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS 2.5. UNREP MET AGREES. PT GIVES 2.0. DBO
PT.

DELEO

[Chacor]

With JTWC at T2.0 and SAB (below) at T2.5 we should be seeing a TCFA soon.

964
WWIO21 KNES 221438

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 IRDAY
.
JULY 22 2007 1430Z
.
7.7S 73.3E T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS 90S
.
PAST POSITIONS... 6.8S 73.9E 22/0230Z IRNIGHT
6.5S 74.6E 21/1430Z IRDAY/VIS
ADDL POSITIONS... 7.1S 73.2E 22/0848Z AMSRE 36/89
7.4S 72.8E 22/1111Z AMSU 89
.
REMARKS...VERY STRONG/COLD AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON WESTERN
SIDE OF LLC (WHICH WAS VERY APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AS THE
SUN SET). CONVECTION IS VERY TIGHT TO THE CIRCULATION MAKING THE
DT HIGH WITH SHEAR PATTERN (3.0) THOUGH BANDING OF CONVECTIVE
SECTION THOUGH USING THE NEAREST CURL ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL LEADS
TO .4 BANDING FOR 2.5... PT IS 2.5. MET IS 2.0. FT IS 2.5 BASED
ON DT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 22/2200Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
GALLINA
.
NNNN
=

[P.K.]

The earliest named system for this basin, since naming began in 1960, from the 1960 to 2006 seasons is only 15th August so this is really early.

[HurricaneBill]

I wonder if it will get named if it reaches TC intensity?

[Chacor]

I wonder if it will get named if it reaches TC intensity?

It will, as usual. If and when Mauritius decides it's a moderate tropical storm it'll be named.

[Meso]

Ah there is something.. I saw this showed on the Euro model for a while...Weird time for a TC there

[HURAKAN]

23/0830 UTC 7.9S 72.2E T2.5/2.5 90S
23/0230 UTC 7.8S 73.4E T2.5/2.5 90S
22/2030 UTC 7.3S 72.5E T2.5/2.5 90S
22/1430 UTC 7.8S 73.3E T2.5/2.5 90S

Based purely on Dvorak this has been a tropical storm for sometime now.

[P.K.]

In their last bulletin Mauritus only had sustained winds of 10-15kts with this, down to 1002hPa now.

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, MONDAY 23 JULY 2007 AT 0000 UTC .

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : TTTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE=

NEAR GALE FORCE EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS EXIST WITHIN LATTITUDE 12 'S AND
20'S AND LONGITUDE 60'E AND 80'E.

T.O.O 23/0030UT


PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, MONDAY 23 JULY 2007 - 0000 UTC

LOW 1002 HPA NEAR 08S 71E. MOVEMENT SLOW WESTWARDS.

SHALLOW LOW 1006 HPA NEAR 06S 90E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09S 70E , 15S 72E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09S 86E, 15S 90E.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 28S 85E, 32S 97E.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 32S 55E, 35S 65E , 40S 73E.

HIGH 1024 HPA NEAR 32S 72E

HIGH 1028 HPA NEAR 37S 53E.


PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO TUESDAY 24 JULY 2007 AT 0000 UTC

8/1:

EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20, LOCALLY GUSTY. SEA
ROUGH. VISIBILITY GOOD.

8/2:

EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN NORTH, SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTH EASTERLY 15 IN SOUTH, LOCALLY GUSTY. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH. VISIBILITY GOOD.

8/3:

AS IN TTT WARNING OF PART ONE.

8/4:

EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN SOUTH, 15 IN NORTH, LOCALLY GUSTY.SEA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY GOOD.

8/5:

CLOCKWISE 10-15 AROUND LOW. EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY
15 IN SOUTH, SOUTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH, LOCALLY
GUSTY IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY POOR IN
ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS.

8/6:

EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH, WESTERLY 10-15 IN
NORTH, LOCALLY GUSTY. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY
POOR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

8/7:

EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 15 IN SOUTH, SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTH WESTERLY 15-20 IN NORTH, LOCALLY GUSTY. SEA MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY GOOD.


PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS: LOW NEAR 08S 71E MAY DEEPEN
FURTHER.


T.O.O 23/0100UTC=

[HURAKAN]

Based on just satellite presentation, this system has to be at least a strong depression.