Area's of interest in Western Atlantic

[gatorcane]

delete....

AFter further analysis the ULL and associated activity should move out to sea.....

[Aric Dunn]

Sure I've missed something. The TWO mentions the ULL/wave interaction near the Bahamas and says "some development" is possible in a day or two.
The thread about Caribbean wave is not exactly this either, is it? Sorry for confusion but is it time for a title change or separate thread?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES...IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

thats what i have been saying.. but cycloneye changed the name of the thread....

should say from DR to bermunda.. .. like the TWO says..

[cycloneye]

Edited again the title.It fits better with what is going on right Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

Edited again the title.It fits better with what is going on right Aric?

yes .. thankyou...

[jrod]

............ What we'll be looking at is some type of hybrid frontal low east of Hatteras tomorrow, most likely.

This is great news for surfers up and down the east coast, hybrids tend to have more of a NE fetch hence a better swell than MOST hurricanes can ever offer. I getting anxious to see what the next days will bring.

[cpdaman]

well i finally see some convection in the center of the ULL for the first time at 30 N 67.5 west moving generally north

now we need a bouy or ship in the area

[Aric Dunn]

there is noting at the surface... except south ... .... as of right now anyway

[dixiebreeze]

Invest coming up:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 21 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-059 (CORRECTED TAKE OFF TIME)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 22/1300Z
D. 32.0N 64.0W
E. 18Z 21Z
F. 1500 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/0100Z
D. 35.0N 64.5W
F. 05Z 09Z
G. SFC 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE.

[windstorm99]

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 21, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...


a large area of cloudiness and showers...extending from eastern
Cuba...Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas northeastward into
the Atlantic for several hundred miles...is associated with an
upper-level low interacting with a tropical wave. This system
remains disorganized but environmental conditions are expected to
become more favorable for some development over the next day or
two.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Aric Dunn]

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 21, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...


a large area of cloudiness and showers...extending from eastern
Cuba...Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas northeastward into
the Atlantic for several hundred miles...is associated with an
upper-level low interacting with a tropical wave. This system
remains disorganized but environmental conditions are expected to
become more favorable for some development over the next day or
two.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.



$$
Forecaster Avila

yep .. still paying attention right near the Se bahamas,,,, we should a larger burst of convection .. near the small LLC down there.. shortly..

[NDG]

This whole thing is complicated to me, I see a weak broad surface circulation just north of DR, near 22N/71W near the trough's axis, where the lowest surface pressures of near 1014MB are found other than the frontal lows off the Carolinas, further north & east where most of the convection and where the recon flight could be heading to tomorrow, I see a couple of mid level circulations on top of SE surface winds and much higher surface pressures.

[Aric Dunn]

This whole thing is complicated to me, I see a weak broad surface circulation just north of DR, near 22N/71W near the trough's axis, where the lowest surface pressures of near 1014MB are found other than the frontal lows off the Carolinas, further north & east where most of the convection and where the recon flight could be heading to tomorrow, I see a couple of mid level circulations on top of SE surface winds and much higher surface pressures.

yeah it.. is.. so you just take it one thing at a time.. Further south more assoicated with the tropical axis and trough interaction is going to be the most likely place so see a low for(which it is) and possibly deepen.. as it move north .. the mid atlantic really has nothing to do with this system..

the upper low is moving north allowing the shear to the south to become more favorable.. (which it has)

and your right further north where the pressure are even higher... 1018 to 1020.. there are nothing but Se wind blowing thru there..

there is clearly a small but growing LLC near the SE bahamas..

\and that is the area to watch as it moves north .. into the area where the NHC has the planes possibly going..

or it never makes it that far north.. but we will see ..

either way.. convection should fire here shortly near that small LLC

[Cyclone1]

All hail the CMC. It was the only model to predict a low forming in the SE Bahamas last week, and it looks like one is, or at least is trying to. I have a new favorite model.

[cpdaman]

forget the CMC all hail ARIC (at least for a day) if this comes to pass

[cheezyWXguy]

This whole thing is complicated to me, I see a weak broad surface circulation just north of DR, near 22N/71W near the trough's axis, where the lowest surface pressures of near 1014MB are found other than the frontal lows off the Carolinas, further north & east where most of the convection and where the recon flight could be heading to tomorrow, I see a couple of mid level circulations on top of SE surface winds and much higher surface pressures.

yeah it.. is.. so you just take it one thing at a time.. Further south more assoicated with the tropical axis and trough interaction is going to be the most likely place so see a low for(which it is) and possibly deepen.. as it move north .. the mid atlantic really has nothing to do with this system..

the upper low is moving north allowing the shear to the south to become more favorable.. (which it has)

and your right further north where the pressure are even higher... 1018 to 1020.. there are nothing but Se wind blowing thru there..

there is clearly a small but growing LLC near the SE bahamas..

\and that is the area to watch as it moves north .. into the area where the NHC has the planes possibly going..

or it never makes it that far north.. but we will see ..

either way.. convection should fire here shortly near that small LLC

Actually, there's a massive outflow boundary leaving the convection mass right now, headed straight for the weak LLC...unless the LLC gets stronger within the hour(which it has 0 chance of) it looks like its going to get killed...I would look for a circulation closer to the convection mass

[Aric Dunn]

nah.. if it does not thats ok... because.. there is a low there.. that what i have stuck with..
and you always learn..

and i just cant see anything getting going further north anytime soon.. so the only logical thing is the wave axis and its interaction.. which is whats happening near the SE bahamas

[Aric Dunn]

This whole thing is complicated to me, I see a weak broad surface circulation just north of DR, near 22N/71W near the trough's axis, where the lowest surface pressures of near 1014MB are found other than the frontal lows off the Carolinas, further north & east where most of the convection and where the recon flight could be heading to tomorrow, I see a couple of mid level circulations on top of SE surface winds and much higher surface pressures.

yeah it.. is.. so you just take it one thing at a time.. Further south more assoicated with the tropical axis and trough interaction is going to be the most likely place so see a low for(which it is) and possibly deepen.. as it move north .. the mid atlantic really has nothing to do with this system..

the upper low is moving north allowing the shear to the south to become more favorable.. (which it has)

and your right further north where the pressure are even higher... 1018 to 1020.. there are nothing but Se wind blowing thru there..

there is clearly a small but growing LLC near the SE bahamas..

\and that is the area to watch as it moves north .. into the area where the NHC has the planes possibly going..

or it never makes it that far north.. but we will see ..

either way.. convection should fire here shortly near that small LLC

Actually, there's a massive outflow boundary leaving the convection mass right now, headed straight for the weak LLC...unless the LLC gets stronger within the hour(which it has 0 chance of) it looks like its going to get killed...I would look for a circulation closer to the convection mass

Looks good to me.. convection already starting to fire..
and if you look close.. the outflow boundry is slowly down..

oh yeah.. and even if that little circ goe.. the over all wave axis will not and i have said that a few times..
the overall surface feature wont be disrupted..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What ever it is it is weak in west of the convection. Not enough data to say if its a LLC.,,,It could be. As of now no cyclone should develop over the next 24 hours at least.

[cheezyWXguy]

In addition to my post above, based on visible satelite, it looks as though in the dead middle of the convection mass, there appears to be rotation, probably mid level, but still rotation that wasnt there before, and I think with improving conditions and persistent convection, this could become the center...just my 2 cents

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

EDIT: actually, here's a better visible loop, closer in on what i was talking about

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[canegrl04]

All hail the CMC. It was the only model to predict a low forming in the SE Bahamas last week, and it looks like one is, or at least is trying to. I have a new favorite model.

Looks like the Canadian model is proving it's reliability Lets get this season on the road. Chop chop