Invest 96 in EPAC

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

A new invest pops in this basin.Let's see how strong this disturbance gets.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202225
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Cyclenall]

Nice, I was just about to post more info on it before the Invest was decleared. More convection is forming around and there might be a weak spin to it.

[HURAKAN]

If this one develops it will have more time to further develop.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS MOVING WESTWARD. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Not bad!!

[cycloneye]

21/1145 UTC 11.8N 99.3W T1.0/1.0 98E -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Convection intensifying!!!

[cycloneye]

KMIA 211346
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1346 UTC SAT JUL 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982007) 20070721 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070721 1200 070722 0000 070722 1200 070723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 99.1W 13.3N 101.0W 14.1N 102.5W 14.7N 104.0W
BAMD 12.0N 99.1W 12.6N 101.2W 13.0N 103.1W 13.3N 104.8W
BAMM 12.0N 99.1W 13.0N 101.0W 13.7N 102.5W 14.2N 103.6W
LBAR 12.0N 99.1W 12.9N 101.5W 13.7N 103.9W 14.2N 106.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070723 1200 070724 1200 070725 1200 070726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 105.3W 16.6N 107.7W 18.5N 110.1W 21.1N 113.4W
BAMD 13.6N 106.1W 14.6N 107.8W 16.5N 109.4W 19.2N 112.2W
BAMM 14.6N 104.3W 16.0N 105.7W 18.5N 107.7W 21.4N 110.8W
LBAR 14.5N 108.6W 15.1N 111.7W 15.7N 113.7W 17.7N 115.5W
SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS 68KTS
DSHP 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 99.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 96.8W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 94.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211655
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

#7 at 2 PM PDT???

[HURAKAN]

21/1745 UTC 12.2N 101.4W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific Ocean

Getting close to Dalila and closer to 7-E.

[Cyclenall]

I'm starting to like this system, a lot. Should become the next tropical cyclone in the Epac. Getting more organized, low pressure with it, banding?, and tightening of the low.

Where are all the new model runs for it? I didn't see any for the GFDL.

[cycloneye]

069
WHXX01 KMIA 211854
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1854 UTC SAT JUL 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982007) 20070721 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070721 1800 070722 0600 070722 1800 070723 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 103.0W 12.3N 104.8W 12.6N 106.4W 13.0N 107.8W
BAMD 11.6N 103.0W 12.0N 105.4W 12.2N 107.8W 12.2N 109.9W
BAMM 11.6N 103.0W 12.3N 105.0W 12.8N 106.5W 13.0N 107.6W
LBAR 11.6N 103.0W 12.2N 105.7W 12.6N 108.6W 13.1N 111.5W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 36KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070723 1800 070724 1800 070725 1800 070726 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 108.8W 14.0N 110.2W 15.5N 111.0W 17.7N 113.0W
BAMD 12.1N 111.6W 12.4N 113.7W 13.6N 113.8W 15.6N 114.9W
BAMM 13.1N 108.4W 14.3N 109.2W 16.9N 109.9W 19.6N 112.8W
LBAR 13.6N 114.2W 14.6N 118.5W 15.6N 121.1W 17.3N 122.6W
SHIP 59KTS 58KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 59KTS 58KTS 50KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 103.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 99.6W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 95.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Cyclenall]

My only concern is some shear to the west of it. Will this go away in time? I don't want it being a bugger on 98L.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 212222
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA


WWWW



It's a matter of time that we will see TD 7-E.

[Cyclenall]

ABPZ20 KNHC 212222
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA


WWWW



It's a matter of time that we will see TD 7-E.

I just knew the NHC would use those exact words in their TWO at 7:00 pm EST. I was even going to predict that here but I forgot. The "TD tonight or Sunday" line was the most predictable. So far so good but I'm still worried about the shear issue but it seems the NHC isn't talking about it yet (they usually don't in these situations).

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 220042
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC SUN JUL 22 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982007) 20070722 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070722 0000 070722 1200 070723 0000 070723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 104.6W 13.0N 106.4W 13.1N 108.1W 13.3N 109.3W
BAMD 12.7N 104.6W 13.1N 106.9W 13.4N 109.0W 13.5N 110.9W
BAMM 12.7N 104.6W 13.3N 106.5W 13.8N 108.0W 14.0N 109.2W
LBAR 12.7N 104.6W 13.3N 107.5W 14.0N 110.5W 14.4N 113.4W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 49KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070724 0000 070725 0000 070726 0000 070727 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 110.0W 14.2N 110.2W 16.3N 110.2W 19.3N 112.4W
BAMD 13.6N 112.6W 13.9N 114.3W 15.2N 114.6W 17.8N 116.4W
BAMM 14.3N 110.2W 15.4N 110.8W 17.7N 111.5W 20.6N 114.5W
LBAR 15.0N 116.1W 15.8N 120.2W 16.2N 122.8W 15.8N 124.6W
SHIP 62KTS 57KTS 49KTS 45KTS
DSHP 62KTS 57KTS 49KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 104.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 101.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 97.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Umm 30kts,TD 7-E at 8 PM PDT?

[Cyclenall]

Umm 30kts,TD 7-E at 8 PM PDT?

Not nessecerally, it can be 30 knots and still be a tropical low without being a TD. It didn't say tropical depression as the title so I don't know.

Still no other comments from many users in this thread. There is less activity because of these sub-forms I suspect .

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Well,NRL has it as noname.The best thing to do is to wait for the official advisory to be sure it's a TD.