Area's of interest in Western Atlantic

[jrod]

Hopefully quikscat won't miss the sweet spot if there is one on it's upcomming pass.

I am going with what wxman posted earlier about a hybrid low being possible, he is a pro met.

[cpdaman]

since 2045 utc you can see clouds wrapping from west to east in the area of 30 n 68 w and the eastern most wrap action is further to the east and looks like it will have a sub-trop signature

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

tell me what you see on this visible loop (at the end) and we shall see if i am crazy Lol

[Cyclone1]

So wait, the top half of this thing is becoming subtropical, while the bottom half is becoming tropical?

umm.. well. there is some debate.. NHC never said subtropical.. but with the upper low MAybe maybe working to the surface.. then probably.. sub trop..

but the Low near the bahamas.. is tropical.. it is the wave from the other day still hanging around..

if either one does anything .. is the question

Yeah, it would be something to have two storms from from the same system though. Not unheard of, but relatively rare.

[Aric Dunn]

Hopefully quikscat won't miss the sweet spot if there is one on it's upcomming pass.

I am going with what wxman posted earlier about a hybrid low being possible, he is a pro met.

i agree .. there is potential ... for it.. the gfs seems to be hanging on the both ... the part to the south and the upper low or something forming north as well but they stay separate.. according the GFS

but.. there is nothing up north yet.. so i will stick with the only thing that is at the surface and look at least partially interesting...
everything else is not..

[jrod]

Aric, take a look at the water vapor look(again), that area that looked sweet a few hours ago has lost the deep moisture. Sure it may fire up again but I really don't think any imminent development is happening anywhere. If there was then the Recon Flights would already be out there.

The great thing about debating the weather is none of us have any control, one person being completly right almost never happens, and something unforeseen often happens.

[Aric Dunn]

since 2045 utc you can see clouds wrapping from west to east in the area of 30 n 68 w and the eastern most wrap action is further to the east and looks like it will have a sub-trop signature

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

tell me what you see on this visible loop (at the end) and we shall see if i am crazy Lol

those are mid to upper level clouds ... use this ..

and everything that is yellow in color is near to the surface.. or low level clouds..
there is nil to no west to east low level clouds..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

[NDG]

last few visible images show me the ULL is working down to surface at 30 N 68 W and when all the moisture to the south wraps in it will be subtropical storm time (maybe) ha ha

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

ARic what are you using to decide if anything has worked down to surface, where are you getting the wind data and how updated (por favor)

first of.. all visible.. you can clearly see the low level clouds moving east to west (even now)

second what ever surface obs, microwave passes.. anything i can find.. i dont have all the cool things that pro mets may have access to but i can .. make do..

Yeah, nothing but SE winds underneath the ULL, suface pressures have been falling in that area but is more because of the approaching front, but still relatively high.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, take a look at the water vapor look(again), that area that looked sweet a few hours ago has lost the deep moisture. Sure it may fire up again but I really don't think any imminent development is happening anywhere. If there was then the Recon Flights would already be out there.

The great thing about debating the weather is none of us have any control, one person being completly right almost never happens, and something unforeseen often happens.

but convection is refireing...



http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[jrod]

My -removed- is for swell up here in Va Beach/OBX.

Aric, Im pretty sure yours is for CFL's swell window. You are right something is going on down there, I just do not think anything is imminent in the next 36hrs.

Of course only time will tell.

[Aric Dunn]

My -removed- is for swell up here in Va Beach/OBX.

Aric, Im pretty sure yours is for CFL's swell window. You are right something is going on down there, I just do not think anything is imminent in the next 36hrs.

Of course only time will tell.

yeah .. agree there is nothing imminent... its going to take a good 24 to 36 hours..

[storms in NC]

Aric, take a look at the water vapor look(again), that area that looked sweet a few hours ago has lost the deep moisture. Sure it may fire up again but I really don't think any imminent development is happening anywhere. If there was then the Recon Flights would already be out there.

The great thing about debating the weather is none of us have any control, one person being completly right almost never happens, and something unforeseen often happens.

I am alway right just ask DH.LOLOLOL

[wxman57]

Sorry, folks, there's absolutely, positively no low center forming anywhere near the SE Bahamas. Nor is there any surface low forming farther north associated with the upper-level low. Pressures in this region have been rising all day, as evident in the 00Z surface analysis below. The upper low is shearing apart this evening and the moisture is streaming northward and elongating. Eventually, it'll be absorbed into the upper trof/front along the east U.S. Coast.

What I do see is a tiny vort max (area of instability) tracking rapidly NE across NE Florida and off the coast of Georgia along the frontal boundary. No doubt, this is the energy that the models are looking at when developing that weak frontal low off Hatteras tomorrow morning. But that appears to be all we're going to see out of this system. No tropical storm, just a weak frontal low. You can see the weak frontal low on the 12Z ECMWF map valid 12Z Monday:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f48.gif

And here's the 00Z analysis. I added isobars every 2mb. Some ships quite obviously had very bad pressures (way too high, mostly). I crossed them out with a white line and ignored them:

[Aric Dunn]

lol
we will see

you are right about the upper low..

[Aric Dunn]

still talking more about the SE bahamas..

516
ABNT20 KNHC 220204
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES...IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[storms in NC]

I don't see any thing this morning but every thing going out with the front. Oh well back to the drawing board.

Deb

[wxman57]

Three words (well, 2 words and a contraction):

"It's dead, Jim!"

[hial2]

:

"It's dead, Jim!"

I wonder how many of those that read these words know why this is funny?..I doubt many..LOL

[NDG]

The very weak surface circulation that Aric and I had noticed yesterday north of DR has moved NNE during the night, still very weak, located this morning near 25N/70W, at 12z ship reports to the SSW of where broad weak circulation is, reported a SW wind.

[MGC]

I don't see anything coming of this. The upper low is shearing everything. The NHC has been saying conditions could become better in a day or two. I don't see it....MGC

[NDG]

If it moves slowly it MIGHT catch a break from the windshear between the ULL and the US east coast trough, as the ULL keeps moving NNE away from this weak surface circulation.