Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
The models are only as good as the data put into them. If the lowest pressure in the entire Atlantic Basin inserted into the models is a 1011 mb low in Colombia, how are the models going to know that off the coast of Nicaragua is a low with a pressure of less than 1009 mb. They won't know. So they won't factor it in. Therefore it won't appear on their map. I would not be surprised if over the last nine hours of consistent, strong convection that this low hasn't reached 1005 mb or less. Anyway, I may be wrong, but it's satellite presentation looks really good right now. The slight northeasterly shear it's beginning to experience will only result in it adjusting slightly to the north--resulting in it missing the Nicaraguan/Honduran coast and heading northwestwards towards the Yucatan as opposed to Belize.
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- DanKellFla
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
still there...
sipet from afternoon disco from NHC/TPC...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 221720
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 21N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
79W-83W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN TODAY...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE
MONDAY MORNING.
sipet from afternoon disco from NHC/TPC...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 221720
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 21N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
79W-83W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN TODAY...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE
MONDAY MORNING.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
If you belieive the 1009 ship report than this system should have a pretty good spin to it before it crosses over the Yucatan.
Looking at the water vapor imagery it looks like the front in the gulf is splitting and an ULL now over the BOC will roll off southwest as the front departs to the northeast. High pressure should build up through the middle.
The models seem to be lagging, but you can't just drop a TD in the sw gulf without a whole lot of explanations. The longer you wait the better the data will be and the fewer random variables you have to deal with. If the system moves fairly fast it might not have much time to spin up over the gulf. We have seen some pretty strong circulations cross the Yucatan and reach the northern gulf without becoming a major hurricane.
Looking at the water vapor imagery it looks like the front in the gulf is splitting and an ULL now over the BOC will roll off southwest as the front departs to the northeast. High pressure should build up through the middle.
The models seem to be lagging, but you can't just drop a TD in the sw gulf without a whole lot of explanations. The longer you wait the better the data will be and the fewer random variables you have to deal with. If the system moves fairly fast it might not have much time to spin up over the gulf. We have seen some pretty strong circulations cross the Yucatan and reach the northern gulf without becoming a major hurricane.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
Nothing happening. The basin is sheared out with 40-60 mph shear. Looks like 2006.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
Seems that a mid level circulation has formed where deep convection was earlier near 16N/82W moving WNW, which is fairly normal.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
This thread has reached 25 pages so it's locked.Anyone who may want to start a new thread can do so.
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