Invest 97L near Bermuda

[Aric Dunn]

Honestly, I haven't a clue what the NHC is doing with this invest. There's nothing of significance there but some sheared convection east of an upper low. There is no surface trof east of Bermuda at all, that trof/front is along the east U.S. Coast. Pressures around Bermuda are 1020mb, even higher where the invest is.

Here's a 00Z surface plot with the red crosshairs at the point of the invest. Nothing there at the surface but high pressure, folks. Development chances are about zero. Remember that the models think that there is a circulation center and predict intensification accordingly. On that, they're wrong, and the predictions are wrong. I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

well .. thats funny.. because..i have watch a low at the surface almost the whole.. day.. (and not the further south.) east of brumuda.. its there.. weak but there..

[cheezyWXguy]

Honestly, I haven't a clue what the NHC is doing with this invest. There's nothing of significance there but some sheared convection east of an upper low. There is no surface trof east of Bermuda at all, that trof/front is along the east U.S. Coast. Pressures around Bermuda are 1020mb, even higher where the invest is.

Here's a 00Z surface plot with the red crosshairs at the point of the invest. Nothing there at the surface but high pressure, folks. Development chances are about zero. Remember that the models think that there is a circulation center and predict intensification accordingly. On that, they're wrong, and the predictions are wrong. I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

Actually I was able to find a very weak circulation center exposed on the western side of the convection near where the NHC was talking about, but it was before the sun went down and IR satelite is useless at this point. Also, according to jeff masters, shear has decreased to about 10kts and is forecast to remain so for the next couple of days

[Aric Dunn]

yeah .. that the are.. it was exposed..

interesting .. though.. the upper low seemed to be moving faster north than that low

[miamicanes177]

I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

You have charged the NHC of doing this on several invests this year. This is quite a serious charge by you considering the NHC is a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm. Do you have have facts to support your claim or this is simply a "hunch" that your posting a message board?

I looked back at the previous posts and you appear concerned previously the NHC was naming invests "for the new guys". This is a different type of "hunch" your having with 97L, but still it centers around the same theme.

[wxman57]

well .. thats funny.. because..i have watch a low at the surface almost the whole.. day.. (and not the further south.) east of brumuda.. its there.. weak but there..

Nothing at the surface, Aric, just high pressure. If all you have is satellite, you really can't tell what's happening at the surface. You were looking at the upper level low on satellite. There's no lower surface pressure there. This non-system is just a waste of time. You kids can talk about it all you want. It's obvious that you don't want any facts to get in the way of potential development. I can see why AFM left S2K last year. I'll be back, but not for this thing.

[Aric Dunn]

I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

You have charged the NHC of doing this on several invests this year. This is quite a serious charge by you considering the NHC is a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm. Do you have have facts to support your claim or this is simply a "hunch" that your posting a message board?

i seriously doubt they are testing there systems.. If they were there would be no need . to make it public... its almost absurd...to think that they declare a invest run the models.. and then post it to the public and not say this is only a test..

[Aric Dunn]

well .. thats funny.. because..i have watch a low at the surface almost the whole.. day.. (and not the further south.) east of brumuda.. its there.. weak but there..

Nothing at the surface, Aric, just high pressure. If all you have is satellite, you really can't tell what's happening at the surface. You were looking at the upper level low on satellite. There's no lower surface pressure there. This non-system is just a waste of time. You kids can talk about it all you want. It's obvious that you don't want any facts to get in the way of potential development. I can see why AFM left S2K last year. I'll be back, but not for this thing.

yes there is.. there was and most likely still is.. i track the western edge of it all day.. there is a circulation just ene of brumuda..

and you honestly think i dont know the differnce .,, between a ULL low an something at least near the surface.. come on..

kids... im married and have a "kid "of my own.. ok so your agaisnt what the NHC says .. thats fine... dont charge us with tracking nothing when the NHC is tracking the same thing..

[wxman57]

I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

You have charged the NHC of doing this on several invests this year. This is quite a serious charge by you considering the NHC is a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm. Do you have have facts to support your claim or this is simply a "hunch" that your posting a message board?

I'm not "charging" the NHC with anything, and I certainly don't have any inside info as to what they're doing. It's just the only thing that might explain calling something like this (or a similarly weak previous system) an invest. Their job is to protect the public. They made some significant software changes last month and they really need a shake-down system to test it. Testing their software/procedures IS protecting the public. And such tests can in no way harm anyone. So what's the big deal? We run such tests all the time. It's a GOOD thing to run such tests. That's it, I'm out of here. Discuss this thing all you want.

[Recurve]

Actually I was able to find a very weak circulation center exposed on the western side of the convection near where the NHC was talking about, but it was before the sun went down and IR satelite is useless at this point. Also, according to jeff masters, shear has decreased to about 10kts and is forecast to remain so for the next couple of days

Can it develop before getting sucked away by the low?

At first I thought the thread title said "...=Fish models posted"


Thanks wxman

[Stratosphere747]

I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

You have charged the NHC of doing this on several invests this year. This is quite a serious charge by you considering the NHC is a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm. Do you have have facts to support your claim or this is simply a "hunch" that your posting a message board?

I looked back at the previous posts and you appear concerned previously the NHC was naming invests "for the new guys". This is a different type of "hunch" your having with 97L, but still it centers around the same theme.

I can vouch for the fact that other mets have mused about the fact that it would not be a bad idea to have an invest to test a few issues. All respected, and not members of this board.

[Aric Dunn]

and we do have the facts.. at a minimum .. what the NHC says is there.. as well as my own observations... its ok to be wrong .. I cant figure out why it bothers you so much ..

[Jam151]

I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

You have charged the NHC of doing this on several invests this year. This is quite a serious charge by you considering the NHC is a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm. Do you have have facts to support your claim or this is simply a "hunch" that your posting a message board?

i seriously doubt they are testing there systems.. If they were there would be no need . to make it public... its almost absurd...to think that they declare a invest run the models.. and then post it to the public and not say this is only a test..

Are yall serious. What the heck is wxman57 charging the NHC of doing that is so wrong? Who cares if the NHC even were to make an Invest policy change....or anything close to that. It's not a product designed for the public, and even though some of us "nuts" in the public sector that DO view the invests know better (I think) to take these subtle changes too seriously.

[Aric Dunn]

anyway how about those raiders//

[Toadstool]

So where can we get the new HWRF model that the NHC has been touting, and why isn't it showing up on the model web sites?

[skysummit]

Toadstool....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[NDG]

well .. thats funny.. because..i have watch a low at the surface almost the whole.. day.. (and not the further south.) east of brumuda.. its there.. weak but there..

Nothing at the surface, Aric, just high pressure. If all you have is satellite, you really can't tell what's happening at the surface. You were looking at the upper level low on satellite. There's no lower surface pressure there. This non-system is just a waste of time. You kids can talk about it all you want. It's obvious that you don't want any facts to get in the way of potential development. I can see why AFM left S2K last year. I'll be back, but not for this thing.

yes there is.. there was and most likely still is.. i track the western edge of it all day.. there is a circulation just ene of brumuda..

and you honestly think i dont know the differnce .,, between a ULL low an something at least near the surface.. come on..

kids... im married and have a "kid "of my own.. ok so your agaisnt what the NHC says .. thats fine... dont charge us with tracking nothing when the NHC is tracking the same thing..

I saw the circulation you were talking about Aric, just east of Bermuda, but it is or was so weak that Bermuda reported SE winds all afternoon, when they should have had some some sort of a northerly wind component, another thing that is mind bogling is how high surface pressures are, that is all relatively speaking.

[Toadstool]

Toadstool....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Thanks! I hope it has time to do some work in the Atlantic, but interesting seeing the pacific for now I guess.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They do have invest numbers they can use for testing.

80 - 89 "Internal training storm numbers which are to always be ignored"
Source: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/README

HWRF model links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... HWRF_model

[Cyclone1]

So if the 80-89L's are tests... Wouldn't this be real? Hence the 97? I'm about 95% certain they aren't using this invest for testing reasons.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE DIMINISHING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

It looks like TPC is ready to let go of this one.