Invest 97L near Bermuda

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It's real, but still hard to believe.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 34&lon=-62

It's somewhere in the convection in between the ULLs. I had a hard time trying to find the possible low. I thought I had, but now I'm starting to wonder. It's future will probably be very short. (Lets see if there is a 2AM EDT position update.)

Based on the 10:30PM EDT ATWO just posted, I find it interesting it is still called a "SMALL SURFACE TROUGH." The ATCF database called it a low. That discrepancy is odd. (A surface trough can be an invest? Or was it actually a closed surface low at one point?)

[Cyclone1]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE DIMINISHING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[storms in NC]

well .. thats funny.. because..i have watch a low at the surface almost the whole.. day.. (and not the further south.) east of brumuda.. its there.. weak but there..

Nothing at the surface, Aric, just high pressure. If all you have is satellite, you really can't tell what's happening at the surface. You were looking at the upper level low on satellite. There's no lower surface pressure there. This non-system is just a waste of time. You kids can talk about it all you want. It's obvious that you don't want any facts to get in the way of potential development. I can see why AFM left S2K last year. I'll be back, but not for this thing.

No one is right all the time. And it is spelled Bermuda

It is going out to sea in the cooler waters aways so really no big deal here.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE DIMINISHING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOMORROW.

OR

Next!

[Toadstool]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE DIMINISHING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

I'll take that forecast with a grain of salt.

[senorpepr]

I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

You have charged the NHC of doing this on several invests this year. This is quite a serious charge by you considering the NHC is a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm. Do you have have facts to support your claim or this is simply a "hunch" that your posting a message board?

i seriously doubt they are testing there systems.. If they were there would be no need . to make it public... its almost absurd...to think that they declare a invest run the models.. and then post it to the public and not say this is only a test..

For what it's worth, government agencies DO run tests. As for 97L being "public"... it's NOT. Remember, the invest numbers and even the whole model suites that the NHC publishes are not public. Although they are available to anyone who finds them, they are intended for meteorologists--not armchair forecasters.

As for the NHC being a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm... first, the NHC has to run test to ensure their products are as top-notch as possible. Secondly, I must point out... their specific requirement isn't to just protect "American people," but rather to protect anyone along the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins, as per their agreement with the WMO as an RSMC.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

yes there is.. there was and most likely still is.. i track the western edge of it all day.. there is a circulation just ene of brumuda..

and you honestly think i dont know the differnce .,, between a ULL low an something at least near the surface.. come on..

kids... im married and have a "kid "of my own.. ok so your agaisnt what the NHC says .. thats fine... dont charge us with tracking nothing when the NHC is tracking the same thing..

OK, so you're married and have a "kid", but do you have a spell checker (or a high school education)?

[cheezyWXguy]

I suspect the NHC is running more tests with the new software that was installed a month or so ago. They haven't had anything to test it on since the upgrade, and real threats will be developing soon.

You have charged the NHC of doing this on several invests this year. This is quite a serious charge by you considering the NHC is a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm. Do you have have facts to support your claim or this is simply a "hunch" that your posting a message board?

I'm not "charging" the NHC with anything, and I certainly don't have any inside info as to what they're doing. It's just the only thing that might explain calling something like this (or a similarly weak previous system) an invest. Their job is to protect the public. They made some significant software changes last month and they really need a shake-down system to test it. Testing their software/procedures IS protecting the public. And such tests can in no way harm anyone. So what's the big deal? We run such tests all the time. It's a GOOD thing to run such tests. That's it, I'm out of here. Discuss this thing all you want.

Dont bash wxman because he gave an opinion against development of this system or that its a test. Despite what I thought earlier, this thing is a mess and has no hope...and if y'all think about it...99% of the time, the pro-mets will give out opinions against the development of a system, and as much as you may disagree with them at first, they just about always turn out right in the end.

[harmclan]

Code: Select all

You have charged the NHC of doing this on several invests this year. This is quite a serious charge by you considering the NHC is a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm. Do you have have facts to support your claim or this is simply a "hunch" that your posting a message board?

Dont bash wxman because he gave an opinion against development of this system or that its a test. Despite what I thought earlier, this thing is a mess and has no hope...and if y'all think about it...99% of the time, the pro-mets will give out opinions against the development of a system, and as much as you may disagree with them at first, they just about always turn out right in the end.

WXman is 100% correct. Let's think this one out, does the general public ACTUALLY track or even know there is an Invest 97L? The answer is no. This area is as insignificant as your comment and never had a chance of developing nor impacting the U.S. coast. The NHC needed to test for flaws of new software as we draw near the hype of the season and anyone with the least bit of tropical knowledge or concern for a more ACCURATE track for serious storms would understand that this was the reason behind dubbing this an Invest. This topic is dead and should be closed by an admin....


000
ABNT20 KNHC 230904
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...IS
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[flwxwatcher]

Code: Select all

You have charged the NHC of doing this on several invests this year. This is quite a serious charge by you considering the NHC is a government organization with a specific requirement to protect the American people from harm. Do you have have facts to support your claim or this is simply a "hunch" that your posting a message board?

Dont bash wxman because he gave an opinion against development of this system or that its a test. Despite what I thought earlier, this thing is a mess and has no hope...and if y'all think about it...99% of the time, the pro-mets will give out opinions against the development of a system, and as much as you may disagree with them at first, they just about always turn out right in the end.

WXman is 100% correct. Let's think this one out, does the general public ACTUALLY track or even know there is an Invest 97L? The answer is no. This area is as insignificant as your comment and never had a chance of developing nor impacting the U.S. coast. The NHC needed to test for flaws of new software as we draw near the hype of the season and anyone with the least bit of tropical knowledge or concern for a more ACCURATE track for serious storms would understand that this was the reason behind dubbing this an Invest. This topic is dead and should be closed by an admin....


000
ABNT20 KNHC 230904
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...IS
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

Agreed... 97L is not to be.. Chantal will come but not from this system..

[Trader Ron]

I was more impressed with 96L.

I was more impressed with the Thunderstorm that BLEW through on Saturday.

[gatorcane]

so I guess we can look at the EPAC for a while until the Atlantic heats up......just look at all the moisture there. Is it me or does the EPAC always seem to have the best blobs? If any of those blobs were in the Atlantic this board would be jumping.

[miamicanes177]

edited by me to send by PM

[cheezyWXguy]

so I guess we can look at the EPAC for a while until the Atlantic heats up......just look at all the moisture there. Is it me or does the EPAC always seem to have the best blobs? If any of those blobs were in the Atlantic this board would be jumping.

Their season starts earlier than the atlantic, but also peaks and ends earlier than the atlantic, thats why thing are getting progressively more active over there, as opposed to nothing here

[Cyclone1]

C'mon you guys are crazy! 97L has never looked better. Well gosh i'd say it's a hurricane right now..... *denial*

[Berwick Bay]

Confidence in the NHC, thats the key. Many worried that the "Proenza Affair" would damage the NHC's reputation and the confidence of the public. So let me get this straight, some of the best and most experienced minds on this board think that "Invest 97L" was not a real invest? That it was some sort of test? If true, this wouldn't do a whole lot to inspire confidence in this agency. This agency's word should be its bond. If it says "invest", it should mean invest. Meaning that actual conditions warrant a "real" invest. I hope that the test scenario idea is wrong, because I think that course of action does not merit the respect that an agency like the NHC deserves. If there gonna do a test, just say its a test. I for one, hope that it was a real invest.

[fci]

I think everyone needs to chill out a little on this one.

Take a step back and concentrate your interest on things of interest not an Invest that may or may not belong as an Invest.

Come on folks, we are talking "INVEST" here; not a TD or a named system. An Invest means NOTHING to the general public, only to those who closely follow the Tropics.

So, how about everyone moves on to more important things than accusations and condescending insults.

My $.02

[Cyclone1]

Just an interesting note, 97L did resemble Subtropical Depression Twenty-Two earlier today.

[Berwick Bay]

At least there's some little resemblance to that sub-tropical depression pictured next to it. 'Cause I really do hope that this was/is a legitimate invest. If not, I think it would be a poor decision on their part to label it as such.

[caneman]

Not to be argumenative here but I don't think NHC needs our approval to run an invest/test or whatever.. As someone stated earlier most aren't even suppose to know about an invest.