05 vs 06 vs 07 Scorecard

Cyclone1 · #21 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:04 am

I don't think this quiet period will last very much longer.
(edit: Horray! I'm a hurricane now!)

#22 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:07 am

Cyclone1 wrote:I don't think this quiet period will last very much longer.
(edit: Horray! I'm a hurricane now!)

Congrats on being upgarded to a hurricane.

Cyclone1 · #23 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:17 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:I don't think this quiet period will last very much longer.
(edit: Horray! I'm a hurricane now!)

Congrats on being upgarded to a hurricane.

Thanks! But anyway, as I was saying, I think it'll really kick up around August 1-5. Then I predict it will be active in mid November. With that La Nina forecast to form late September/early October, I think we may peak late this year.

Cyclone1 · #24 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:20 am

active until* mid November.

gtalum · #25 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:32 am

We might as well cancel the season.

Kidding! Just kidding! :lol:

#26 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:37 am

Cyclone1 wrote:active until* mid November.

Maybe for the fish in the Atlantic but not for anywhere near the GOM or East Coast.
I just don't see that happening for November.

Cyclone1 · #27 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:59 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:active until* mid November.

Maybe for the fish in the Atlantic but not for anywhere near the GOM or East Coast.
I just don't see that happening for November.

Well, at least late October.

#28 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 11:18 am

Cyclone1 wrote:I don't think this quiet period will last very much longer.
(edit: Horray! I'm a hurricane now!)

Typically it last (even in most active years) until the latter half of August. After which business usually picks up rather quickly, thus we probably still have a bit of a wait yet.

#29 Postby **fci** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:16 pm

windstorm99 wrote:Good evening...

Iam thinking this season florida and the carolinas will have to look out for similar tracks like the one like ernesto took which was a hurricane though not for long but the outcome for southflorida could have been much different if ernesto would have come of cuba sooner.Those mountians saved us from a major hurricane.Adrian

In fact on Monday August 28th we awoke to a Discussion saying that Ernesto could be Cat 2 or 3 when it approaced the SE coast of Florida.

We got VERY LUCKY with Ernesto.

Ptarmigan · #30 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:23 pm

gtalum wrote:We might as well cancel the season.

Kidding! Just kidding!

That would be nice. All in favor, say "Aye". 8-)

dwg71 · #31 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:12 am

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.

As of August 1st

2005 - 7/3/2 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM GERT formed 7/24. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM HARVEY formed on 08/03. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 4/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHRIS formed 08/01. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM DEBBY formed on 08/23. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 3/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL formed on 7/31. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0

#32 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:21 am

I think we could get 4 or 5 in August.

Cyclone1 · #33 Postby **Cyclone1** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:00 pm

I bet 6 for this month.

dwg71 · #34 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:00 am

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.

As of August 3rd

2005 - 8/3/2 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM HARVERY formed 8/3. Next Storm - HURRICANE IRENE formed on 08/07. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 4/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHRIS formed 08/01. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM DEBBY formed on 08/23. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 3/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL formed on 7/31. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 0/0/0 (So far)

HurricaneRobert · #35 Postby **HurricaneRobert** » Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:03 am

You forgot the unnamed one from 2006. So far, 2006 is a little bit ahead.

miamicanes177 · #36 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:23 am

HurricaneRobert wrote:You forgot the unnamed one from 2006. So far, 2006 is a little bit ahead.

No he did not forget it. His numbers are 4/0/0 for 2006

dwg71 · #37 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Aug 07, 2007 8:35 am

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.

As of August 8th

2005 - 9/4/2 Last Storm HURRICANE IRENE formed 8/7. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM JOSE formed on 08/22. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 4/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHRIS formed 08/01. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM DEBBY formed on 08/23. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 3/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL formed on 7/31. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 0/0/0 (So far)

August is nearly 1/4 gone and nothing yet.

Frank2 · #38 Postby **Frank2** » Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:14 pm

It's interesting to note that the EOS (End of Season) window opens just 5 or 6 weeks from now...

The 1979 season was a good example - after Hurricanes David and Frederic, only Gloria and Henri formed before the season ended in the middle of September (Henri was one of those rare Gulf hurricanes that never made landfall)...

Time is passing, folks - just last week, all of the major department stores were clearing out their Summer stock for the Fall clothing line...

It's also interesting to note all '07 systems (so far) have consisted of well-sheared tropical storms - I'd have to disagree with those who say this year is already above average...

#39 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:20 pm

Frank2, it depends who you are talking about when you say end-of-season in 5-6 weeks. For the western Gulf perhaps or even from the carolinas north. But September and October are busy months for Florida. Some big ones have gone through during October. Look at possible analagous year 1935 and also Wilma, and the 1921 CAT 3 that hit Tampa Bay (end of October)...

Remember most of Florida's hits are from the South and west NOT the east.

So for Florida the season typically doesn't end until November and that is about 7 weeks away.

dwg71 · #40 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:Frank2, it depends who you are talking about when you say end-of-season in 5-6 weeks. For the western Gulf perhaps or even from the carolinas north. But September and October are busy months for Florida. Some big ones have gone through during October. Look at possible analagous year 1935 and also Wilma, and the 1921 CAT 3 that hit Tampa Bay (end of October)...

Remember most of Florida's hits are from the South and west NOT the east.

So for Florida the season typically doesn't end until November and that is about 7 weeks away.

Statistical peak is around 9/15. Calendar peak is Sept 1st. We are on day 68 of 183 just 37% of the season and still have 63% left.

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