Trough hanging in the gulf( low forming noth central gulf)

[A1A]

A1A, you have a good memory reflecting back to '02 for Bertha and Cristobal.

It's HURAKAN's memory - I just looked them up.

[Cyclone1]

The 06UTC sfc analysis shows a low in the east Gulf. The TWD says its 1012mbar, which is a lot lower than 97L ever was. I don't know if its UL, ML or LL, but it's just an interesting feature.

And then, for entertainment purposes, there is the good old CMC model, which shows this low crossing Florida. And then,
42hrs out- 48hrs out- 84hrs out- 96hrs out

Chances are low, but higher than our current invest.

[cpdaman]

well i see some moisture firing near yucatan and the flow is north and then north east , just to the north of the yucatan peninsula,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

so maybe we should look for a low developing and moving ne toward w florida

or perhaps the only low will be the one just SE of new orleans in the North east gulf

[fwbbreeze]

Mobile, AL AFD

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview.shtml?pil=MOBAFDMOB&version=0

SHORT TERM UPDATE (TODAY): JUST SHIPPED A NEW GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. INCREASED THE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE AS GRADIENT ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE WEAK LOW (1012MB) OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS RUNNING A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WE HAVE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THAT WEAK LOW IN THE AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE AREA OF SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TODAY. THE SHEAR OVER THE GULF IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT THE WEAK LOW COULD TURN INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

[Cyclone1]

THE SHEAR OVER THE GULF IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT THE WEAK LOW COULD TURN INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

Yep, saw that coming. Chances are low, but never zero.

[HURAKAN]

A1A, you have a good memory reflecting back to '02 for Bertha and Cristobal.

It's HURAKAN's memory - I just looked them up.

My memory is good to remember tropical cyclone's formation dates and places, for everything else, lets just say tropical cyclones have the advantage!!!

[MWatkins]

Root for development all you want...but I can tell you this with a large degree of confidence.

If we get frontal development from a trough hanging into the Gulf of Mexico in late July...you can almost rest assured it is a sign that the MDR will be inactive again this season...like it was in 2002...which featured a whopping 3 storms that developed south of 25N:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2002atl.gif

Granted 2 of the 3 were US landfalls...but trust me...July frontal development is not a good sign if you like to track hurricanes moving westward through the Atlantic.

If you like following storms develop and move almost immediately northeast...frontal development in late July is great...

MW

[caneman]

Mwatkins-That pattern doesn't sound good for us in West Florida or Eastern Gulf if that were to happen.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The last major hurricane to hit Houston, Alicia in 1983, formed on a decaying front off Alabama, and, IIRC, had unusually high pressure, 1015 mb when upgraded to a tropical storm, mainly because the high that had pushed the front into the Gulf had bridged across. Just before landfall the central pressure had dropped to 962 mb (from NHC 1983 Alicia write-up).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Root for development all you want...but I can tell you this with a large degree of confidence.

If we get frontal development from a trough hanging into the Gulf of Mexico in late July...you can almost rest assured it is a sign that the MDR will be inactive again this season...like it was in 2002...which featured a whopping 3 storms that developed south of 25N:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2002atl.gif

Granted 2 of the 3 were US landfalls...but trust me...July frontal development is not a good sign if you like to track hurricanes moving westward through the Atlantic.

If you like following storms develop and move almost immediately northeast...frontal development in late July is great...

MW

I remember the 1997 El Niño year got started off like gang-busters, I think 5 storms before the end of July, than it just ended. I was living in Lafayette when the MCS that became Danny came through from the North. Big time storms, with lots of lightning. Local TV met, Rob Perillo, mentioned following day that some modelling predicted tropical formation from that. It took a few days, but Danny passed over Venice as a Cat 1, and destroyed a lot of cars parked there by the offshore hands. I worked on a rig a few weeks later with guys in the Main Pass on a platform rig on a job turn-keyed by ADTI. They begged the ADTI company man to let someone go in with everyone's keys and move the cars to higher ground. A few weeks after that, on a job for Chevron, similar deal, but Chevron paid everyone the deductible on their car insurance. That Chevron job was in the South Pass, on the Hercules 21, the same rig that had appeared almost 30 years earlier in "Diamonds are Forever".

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess ñ does not form the Spanish letter pronounced "En-yay".

[DESTRUCTION5]

Root for development all you want...but I can tell you this with a large degree of confidence.

If we get frontal development from a trough hanging into the Gulf of Mexico in late July...you can almost rest assured it is a sign that the MDR will be inactive again this season...like it was in 2002...which featured a whopping 3 storms that developed south of 25N:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2002atl.gif

Granted 2 of the 3 were US landfalls...but trust me...July frontal development is not a good sign if you like to track hurricanes moving westward through the Atlantic.

If you like following storms develop and move almost immediately northeast...frontal development in late July is great...

MW

Nice fact MW..

[JonathanBelles]

Its raining yet again, and will likely rain for a while. I like the quick downpours better than these drips.

[hcane27]

If we get frontal development from a trough hanging into the Gulf of Mexico in late July...you can almost rest assured it is a sign that the MDR will be inactive again this season...like it was in 2002...which featured a whopping 3 storms that developed south of 25N:

Just to add to the above .... development in the Gulf after July 15 does not necessarily mean there will be little MDR formation, just that there will be very few of those forming in that area moving westward through the Caribbean. I would attach a map of those years with the aforementioned July Gulf development for your perusal .... there have been 10 years meeting the criteria ... but I can't seem to figure out how to add the image ....

[Cyclone1]

This low is dissipating, anyway.

[MWatkins]

If we get frontal development from a trough hanging into the Gulf of Mexico in late July...you can almost rest assured it is a sign that the MDR will be inactive again this season...like it was in 2002...which featured a whopping 3 storms that developed south of 25N:

Just to add to the above .... development in the Gulf after July 15 does not necessarily mean there will be little MDR formation, just that there will be very few of those forming in that area moving westward through the Caribbean. I would attach a map of those years with the aforementioned July Gulf development for your perusal .... there have been 10 years meeting the criteria ... but I can't seem to figure out how to add the image ....

I am sure there have been active years (many) with Gulf development in July from tropical waves getting down in the BOC and developing or systems coming up out of the NW Caribbean...I am sure there are lots and lots of them.

I would be surprised if there more than a couple with lots of MDR activity and frontal development (systems that get going at the end of middle-lat boundaries). Those types of years, like 2002 and 1997 for example, feature atmospheric patterns that allow fronts to get down to the gulf in the first place.

When conditions are ripe for fronts to get that far south so persistently...it's hard to get much MDR development...and you get systems that once they do develop, the move NE almost right away.

MW

[hcane27]

Mike,

Wasn't questioning your statement ... just went and checked for curiosity's sake .... and was interested to see what the Gulf development held ..... just FYI, since 1950 there have been 10 years with Gulf development July 16-31, and only 1 year with July 1-15 ... and, the average number of named storms in August through November of years with July Gulf development is significantly lower than years with MDR July development .... hmmm

[jasons2k]

2002 and 1997 for example, feature atmospheric patterns that allow fronts to get down to the gulf in the first place.

When conditions are ripe for fronts to get that far south so persistently...it's hard to get much MDR development...and you get systems that once they do develop, the move NE almost right away.

MW

I would caveat that with "unless there is a significant pattern change", i.e., a persistent east coast trough replaced by a ridge...which might be the case now.

[rockyman]

Update this PM from NWS Mobile:

MARINE: WE ISSUED ANOTHER UPDATE A FEW MINUTES AGO TO BRING THE
WINDS UP EVEN FARTHER (INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE) OVER THE WESTERN
MARINE ZONES. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FOR AREAS WEST OF DESTIN. THIS AREA OF INCREASED
WIND IS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A WEAK 1013MB LOW TRACKING SLOWLY
WEST JUST OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WIND
GENERATED SEAS HAVE RESPONDED SLOWLY BUT WE ARE NOW GETTING SOME 3
AND 4 FOOT REPORTS OFFSHORE...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WE KEEP THE GUSTY SOUTHEAST FLOW GOING TONIGHT AND
HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW TO THE WEST. THE LOW TRANSLATES FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST
TOMORROW AND FILLS/WEAKENS TO THE POINT TO WHERE WE CAN BACK THE
WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. /05

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0