2006 Pattern Repeat?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I remember sitting at my computer on Sanibel watching Bertha form close enough to the US to be seen on radar in the Yucatan Channel. Bertha blew the GOM clear for Charley. Her east side drew heavy tropical air up from the south into Charley's path. So it could be a matter of weeks before the SST's cook up and form systems.

I totally disagree with your GW opinions - but they ask us not to debate it on the tropical board.

The debate isn't whether it has warmed up a little bit, but whether it is primarily man-made, and I trust the curriculum vitae of Dr.s Gray abd D'Aleo over Cullen anytime. She wouldn't have a job at TWC if she didn't push the global warming thing.

I didn't know the Romans had such a big carbon footprint.

[HURAKAN]

I've been turned off by TWC because of the global warming stuff too, my guess is since its a hot topic now they air all the gdGW hoopla for ratings. I do trust Dr. Lyons, if he wasn't there I probaly would not even watch it anymore.

I agree with your last statement. What is important about Global Warming is that it's occurring and we could see drastic changes in weather patterns. Nonetheless, not even supercomputers can tell you precisely what would be the real effects of a much warmer planet. We can make deductions from past Earth's experiences of warmer climates but since this is the first time humanity experiences a much warmer planet, there is not a book from past generations to tell you what to expect.

Unfortunately Global Warming has become too political and not enough is being done to solve the problem.

[Sanibel]

Again, off-topic - but, on another board, perhaps we could discuss Gray's saying "Global Warming measures will have too strong an impact on our economy" etc in public. Right there Gray told me all he needs to about his GW views and where they originate.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Sanibel- Look how High these water temperatures are off our west coast. This could
be serious...lets hope no storms come near our coast this year.

I know I posted this in another forum
Water Temperatures Are Very High:
91 degree Water Temp in Saint Petersburg:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sapf1

Clearwater Beach: 90.5 Degrees:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=cwbf1

Venice, Florida: 91 degrees
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

but hey folks this means a very strong season,
remember how Hurricane CHarley bombed out
near floridas west coast?
If anything gets close like Charley was we
are in BIG trouble!

Also the rest of the gulf and caribbean is very warm
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

wxmaps.org max intensity plot:

Over at the Wunderground/Dr. Jeff Master's blog, a poster who goes by MichaelSTL noted that while the date and SST isohydrotherms get updated, the actual max intensity hasn't updated in several weeks.

[MGC]

If I recall my history, the Romans were indeed big polluters. They used a lot of lead and in the process of creating lead dinnerwear and such introduced a lot of lead into the atmosphere. They however didn't cause the atmosphere to warm up, Mother Nature did, just like now.....MGC

[Sanibel]

If I recall my history, the Romans were indeed big polluters. They used a lot of lead and in the process of creating lead dinnerwear and such introduced a lot of lead into the atmosphere. They however didn't cause the atmosphere to warm up, Mother Nature did, just like now.....MGC

This, of course, is absurd because it uses ridicule to avoid any scientific argument. In the years I've discussed this on the net I've asked the question, "How then can you scientifically explain how trillions of tons of man-made CO2 could have no effect? So far no one has ever answered that. It is simply unscientific to compare a day and age where there was virtually no man made CO2 introduced by massive world-wide industry into the atmosphere and today's age.


But, back on topic, the Atlantic looks even worse than 2006. A giant SAL has dominated the Atlantic and driven the ITCZ south and shear is making the entire western basin hostile.

[DanKellFla]

But, back on topic, the Atlantic looks even worse than 2006. A giant SAL has dominated the Atlantic and driven the ITCZ south and shear is making the entire western basin hostile.

HOSTILE????? To hurricanes maybe. Personally, I find hurricanes hostile. But the big 'ol low and the southern path the ITCZ has taken this year looks to make for a hopefully slow storm year. If the ITCZ moves north a bit and the giant SAL (why do I think of a pizza special, The Giant Sal?) dissapates things could get active. But, it is still early. We have all of August and September to look forward too.

[windstorm99]

For what its worth another trof of low pressure is forcasted to move into the SE this upcoming weekend.

[cpdaman]

the weather channel just had a segment (not sure if this was mentioned yet) of the similarities between 2006 and 2007 at least as far as june and july are concerned

they mentioned the generall low pressure trough in the SE creating hostile wind shear in the GOM, caribean, and western atlantic as well as causing anything that forms to curve out to sea

they said a pattern chance may occur, but nothin of that nature is imminent. also they are experts, but the weather does not listen to anyone, i would not bet against more homegrown tropical development especially of SE COAST because the low pressure troughiness this year is centered further west than last year, at least that is my take

p.s sanibel IMO you hit the nail on the head with the economic-GW link, these measures will be at the expense of the public as some corporation cash in , the key for them to get away with this is they needed to convince the public it was man-made not cyclical and also keep the public's attention away from what the biggest man made contributors are (the Military complex's and bases and operation) and in addition the Depleted uranium enviornmental fallout.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just saw that segment on TWC too and they did not say "nothing was imminent". Instead, they said it could go either way and that 85% of the development season still lies ahead.

In fact, there is something immintent. As has been said the last several days, the EC trough is going to be taking a vacation for a while and the bermuda high is going to build in. The 12z GFS (which is just now coming in) continues to show this..

current pattern = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp1_000.shtml

pattern in 4 days = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp1_090.shtml

and the NAM agrees...

current pattern = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/fp0_000.shtml

pattern in 4 days = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/fp0_084.shtml

People can deny it all they want, but this change does now look pretty likely and our luck so far this season is probably going to be running out. Though I wish we could, the fact is that we cannot count on another 2006 repeat this year.

[cpdaman]

hey amigo

did they say a long term pattern change was imminent ( away from SE us troughiness). NO

that is the same thing as saying no change is imminent

short term fluctuation such as a bermuda high building further west do not = long term pattern *change*

that is something that only time will tell and we shall see if SE troughiness returns yet again

[Sanibel]

What happened to Ingrid is very 2006-like with the ULL's and upper level westerlies being too strong for development. We'll see how the rest of the year varies from 2006.

[HURAKAN]

This season has not been anything like 2006. We have already had two landfall cat 5 and a cat. 1 landfall in the US. Numerous records have been broken. In 2006 the season practically ended on October and that's not expected in 2007.

[Sanibel]

Of course it isn't. But the ULL's and unseasonable upper westerlies disruption above the Caribbean is very similar.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Of course it isn't. But the ULL's and unseasonable upper westerlies disruption above the Caribbean is very similar.

I agree...

[cheezyWXguy]

Of course it isn't. But the ULL's and unseasonable upper westerlies disruption above the Caribbean is very similar.

I dont understand the big deal here. So there's a TUTT low or ULL or whatever in the caribbean and in the subtropics right now...so what? How long does a ridge have to last? Patterns change, and quickly at that. It makes my kinda PO-ed when people try to compare tis season to 2006, because conditions arent as ripe as 2005. I think some people on here say it to make themselves believe that 2005 will not happen again. Well guess what? Theres been 2 landfalling cat 5's, one of them taking a spot in the top 10, and the other with an RI record. Weve been so lucky and people dont realize it. 2006 was el nino, 2007 is la nina. Theyre completely different, and october is possibly gonna be a month of hell if the la nina plays out.

[Sanibel]

No offense, but ULL disruption and strong westerlies are unusual in primetime. So a comparison to 2006 is very valid. I'm sorry if that upsets you.

[stormchazer]

Yep....season cancel.

2006 did not have two Cat 5 storms and the record holder for the fastest from TD to Hurricane so that kind of blows your 2006 validation right?

Look, I can pick any period and say hey, the trade winds are just like 1492 or when Dean was there, hey its just like 2005. Its bunk. Each season is its on season so lets quit this junk and get on with it.

Sorry, I'm done!

[Sanibel]

"Season cancel" is too black and white. What I think gets to people is the fact that the Atlantic environment is hostile just like 2006 and they poo-pooed it earlier on. Yes, it is different in the Caribbean. I never said it wasn't.