Low developing west of tampa?

[cpdaman]

wrong link , right link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

is this the signs of a low pressure (probably extra-tropical) about 75 miles west of tampa

[cpdaman]

must be nothing

the latest tampa discussion posted at 936pm makes no mention (unless they are off in la-la land) so this must be nada lowest bouy went from ssw at 20 to ne with a pressure of 29.93 whatever

[DESTRUCTION5]

The shear in the gulf and over FL is deadly right now..

[cpdaman]

i know that is why i said extra tropical

[HeeBGBz]

This is kind of weird. Here in Biloxi, our 20% chance of rain has been a deluge since about 7 pm. The storms earlier were moving swiftly from NW to SE. The storm we have right now seems to be going SE to NW. That's what it looked like on the close up Nexrad radar.

Anyway, it all seems to be connecting with the storms towards western Florida.

[JonathanBelles]

All I can say is that it needs to get out of here. Ive gotten a good amount of rain, but I'd rater take a hurricane then this. It rains at any time of the day. give it another day and I will be very sick of rain.

[HeeBGBz]

This was the beginning of the big rain a little before 7. Looking SSE.



Unfortunately, right when I got underneath that, I blew a radiator hose thingie and was stuck on the drive home in the pouring rain. My poor son had to come work on my car in the heavy heavy rain. We both looked like drowned rats.



Right now it is heavy again. it is what my grandma would call a toad strangler or a gulleywasher.

[skysummit]

HBGeeBz....you had appx 3 - 7 inches of rain (radar estimated) since it began falling.

[NEXRAD]

I took a peek on Gulf IR and shortwave IR and don't see much spin or convective organization. RUC/2 analysis (0300Z / 11PM EDT) does pick-up a rather amorphous 1013mb low south of Mobile, however. Interestingly, the 00Z NAM also reports this low, and the 00Z GFS has hints of it. Needless to say, low pressure centers this weak are more modest local spins than any major weather makers, unless atmospheric pressures are abnormally high. Further analysis points that this circulation is taking place around the tail remnants of the frontal boundary that plowed unusually far south into Florida on Saturday, prompting a Severe T'storm Watch.

As Destruction5 mentioned, there's ample shear in the Gulf right now to keep development prospects low. Conversely, I've seen stuff try to get going under worse shearing. The major models keep an upper low swirling over the Ohio Valley during the next several days, which translates to shear conditions developing across at least the NE Gulf of Mexico. The current shear (a "modest" 20 to 30 knots) is apparently a lull before things kick up to around 50 knots during Tuesday. Given these shear factors, plus a steering flow that favors a quick NE movement, any low trying to spin-up in the NE Gulf doesn't stand much chance at all. If the shear aloft doesn't get it, a fast movement onshore certainly will.

Towards the end of the week (Thursday-Friday), the upper feature to the north and ridging across the Wrn Caribbean ought slip west if the models are worth anything tonight. If that happens as shown, the East Gulf and Florida will be under a divergent flow aloft... this might help diurnal convective activity for the late week, translating not to tropical development though, but perhaps to heavy rain prospects depending on flow at the lower levels and moisture aloft.

- Jay
KSC FL

[HeeBGBz]

Thank you for that graphic. It sounds like its stopped for now.

[Berwick Bay]

Convection in the E GOM very impressive now. No organization, too much shear at this point along the trough boundary. But I am impressed with the thunderstorm activity lining up along the trough boundary and "training" over W Central Fl. Lets give this a couple of days. Nexrad posted that shear should begin to relax in a couple of days. Too see this type of "trough activity" in the GOM always gives one pause.

[JonathanBelles]

How long until this starts moving?

[Berwick Bay]

Well thats just the thing Fact, it won't be going anywhere, anytime soon. Its part of the old frontal boundary which came through the southern US a couple of days ago. The front moved as far south as possible into the N Central Gulf and stopped. T storms are firing along the boundary there. If this persists for a couple of days, we may have cause for concern, as upper level winds above the old frontal boundary will eventually slacken leaving a better environment for those storm left over in the Gulf to develop.

[Cyclone1]

Am I the only guy in the Tampa area not getting any rain?! O_o

[Berwick Bay]

E GOM a mess this afternoon.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, that's a lot of convection to have no developing tropical low!

[southerngreen]

we saw some incredible cloud formations in plant city 5pm yesterday (monday) and drove straight into a pounding. i understand there was a funnel cloud north of us in land o lakes about the same time.
it has looked threatening all day today & so far, not a drop of rain. this is the first day in a week we didn't get a downpour. it is washing all the gravel off my roof (really). we have had so much rain that my potted plants are dying from TOO MUCH rain. (i am NOT complaining).

[Cyclone1]

If you look at a picture of the center of Florida, I live right in that little clear area in the dead center. I'm pretty sure there is a 1045mbar high pressure dome over my city at all times....

[Cyclone1]

Come to think of it, no I don't. I live just south of that clear area,
in that area of orange in that map above^. No rain. That makes no sense. Oh, well.

[StormTracker]

Hopefully this system will at least make a dent in the Lake Okeechobee(spelling???) deficit! The area NW of it, is and has been getting some pretty heavy precip!!!