Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[vaffie]

Strong bursts of convection over the Yucatan Peninsula at present, especially now emerging off the west coast. 2 pm NHC Tropical Discussion notes weak low-level to mid-level circulation. Report from Campeche, Mexico on the western side of the Yucatan is reporting thunderstorms, a pressure of 1011 mb and a north wind of 25 mph gusting to 37 mph as of 6 pm local time. It will be interesting to see if it switches to a south wind in the next few hours.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SOME SLIGHT LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BELIZE..AND THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 84W-89W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER ERN NICARAGUA.

[jasons2k]

Something to watch but no immediate concern as:

1) There is a lot of shear down there right now
2) T-storms blowing up on the Yucatan in the afternoon is nothing unusual

Maybe if it can move NW some, the environment will be more favorable.

[Stratosphere747]

Been keeping a wary eye on this ever since it seemed worthy of a look until the northern area became a focus and eventually 97L.

As Jschlitz mentioned, usually the storms over the YP are usually nothing to give a second look at, but these storms are attributed to the wave. Typical persistence is needed and they could easily peter out by morning.

[cpdaman]

could this turn into something extra tropical?

looks like the flow deep into the gulf is NE ahead of retrograding east coast trof will this be sheared up toward w/fl?

[cheezyWXguy]

Something to watch but no immediate concern as:

1) There is a lot of shear down there right now
2) T-storms blowing up on the Yucatan in the afternoon is nothing unusual

Maybe if it can move NW some, the environment will be more favorable.

Shear has decreased to about 5-10kts in the BOC or SWrn GOM according to this map:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

However, unless it stalls in that area, it won't have too much time before moving inland to Mexico, as it is moving NW at a decent pace

[Ptarmigan]

The tropical wave could be our next rainmaker for us.

[tailgater]

Some of the models are starting to show weak low pressure and moisture heading NW then N toward lower Texas. NAM, NGM and GFS. Shear should keep anything from developing.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif
and one more
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_pres_loop.html

[tailgater]

Here's another 1, nontropical model so take it with a grain of salt.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/e ... c_mslp.gif

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures have been dropping over the Yucatan as far north as Merida. If the shear keeps the wave from developing this energy should continue to drift towards Mexico. During the diurnal max this afternoon something could spin up further north and east. Also the wave in the central caribbean is moving toward a more favorable area for development as well so there should be plenty to watch.

[tailgater]

Blob that is trailing this wave over Northern Guatemala and Belize might be organizing a little over land as some systems do in that little niche of the GOH then travel west over the Yuactan. Early morning Vis. Sat loop show some rotation.

[Stratosphere747]

Quick comment out of Corpus.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP

SHOULD ALSO MENTION THE NAM IS SPINNING SOME SORT OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM UP ACROSS THE WRN GULF...BUT THE NAM HAD A STRONG BIAS
TOWARD DOING THIS LAST SUMMER AND AM IGNORING THIS. MODEL WIND
FIELDS HAVING ALL KINDS OF TROUBLE DUE TO THESE SPURIOUS LOWS AND
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND TENDED TO KEEP WINDS ON LOW SIDE 15 KTS OR
LESS.

[tailgater]

Quick comment out of Corpus.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP

SHOULD ALSO MENTION THE NAM IS SPINNING SOME SORT OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM UP ACROSS THE WRN GULF...BUT THE NAM HAD A STRONG BIAS
TOWARD DOING THIS LAST SUMMER AND AM IGNORING THIS. MODEL WIND
FIELDS HAVING ALL KINDS OF TROUBLE DUE TO THESE SPURIOUS LOWS AND
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND TENDED TO KEEP WINDS ON LOW SIDE 15 KTS OR
LESS.

I think I see a Spurious Low @ 17.3N 90.3W

[TexWx]

If I didn't already have my screenname...

"Spurious Low," would definitely have to be it...

[naked swirl]

Spurious Low! lol Sounds like something out of Harry Potter. It did just inspire me to change my name from uptownmary to naked swirl, though, which I've always chuckled over.

Now back to the topic......

[Cyclone1]

If I didn't already have my screenname...

"Spurious Low," would definitely have to be it...

HAH! I wonder if "seedling" is taken. (Steve Lyons called a wave that yesterday. XD)

[TexWx]

[Cyclone1]

Somone change the title of this thread to "Spurious low over Yucatan".

[Kludge]

If I didn't already have my screenname...

"Spurious Low," would definitely have to be it...

If I ever form a rock band.... that'll be its name..!

[caneman]

Not being real sure what spurious meant, I felt compelled to look it up. Turns out this low may be illegitimate but that brings other questions: Can it become legitimized? Where are the illegitimates that helped spawn it,? etc... I know off topic but I'm bored.

spu·ri·ous (spyʊr'ē-əs)
adj.
Lacking authenticity or validity in essence or origin; not genuine; false.
Of illegitimate birth.

[TexWx]

I looked it up too.

band name alert..

Hurricane Kludge & The Spurious Lows...