Thoughts from Around Florida

[gatorcane]

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I wanted to open this thread while it is quiet to see what the general sentiment (scientific or not scientific) is around Florida as far as whether we will be hit this year.

From a South Florida perspective, the pattern is alot like 2005 and nothing like 2004. We see very little easterly windflow - very stagnant mornings and afternoon pops nearly everyday. We also see lots of troughiness along the EC of the U.S. We have only seen on tropical wave that came close and increase our east winds to about 25mph but by in large it passed us to the south...

My feeling is that if Florida gets hit this year the West coast and Southwest coast are particularly vulnerable from NW Caribbean or Southern GOM hits -- and I think this threat will be particularly high in Aug-Sept because of the troughiness in the long wave pattern. I think South Florida is typically vulnerable but I just don't see an easterly tracker heading our way this year and of course once you get north of about Port St. Lucie, the chances of a easterly hit go down dramatically.

Thoughts?

[DESTRUCTION5]

I tend to disagree..I think its been exactly like 2004..Think back we were having record rainfalls in July followed by a record trough that eventually picked up Charley and note that that was MID-AUG!!..Then you know what happend next..The ridge became a mountian and blew 2 Nasty Canes right thru the heart of FL...You have to think its only a matter of time before all this record troughyness turns into a 20 MPH east breeze with storms bowling westward in the Atlantic..

[EDR1222]

I believe however,that although a trough managed to pick up Charley and take it on an October like path across Florida....the High Pressure system was already in place and Charley took a path right around the western edge of it before being picked up by the trough. It seems the concerns about the strength of the ridge were being voiced very early in the season that year. Maybe some of the mets will chime in and provide some further details.

[Frank2]

The old way of thinking was one if the easterly tradewinds were absent (if the Bermuda high was further east), then, the Gulf was more likely to see any activity, since anything coming across the Atlantic was less likely to reach Florida.

[AdvAutoBob]

Well, looking at our recent history here in Cape Coral... Charley came ashore just to our north in '04, Wilma hit south of us in '05... from the patterns laid out in the previous posts, I wouldn't bet against another SW coast hit, nor would I actively look for one.

[windstorm99]

Personally i think Joe b maybe on the money this year with florida being at greatest risk this season...

Numbers mean 0 to me as even a very slow season can turn out bad if steering currents are not in your favor.I say we will see a season in 2007 with numbers around 10-13 named systems but if out of that bunch 6-7 or seven make landfall then you are faceing a season worse the 2005.

[flwxwatcher]

Personally i think Joe b maybe on the money this year with florida being at greatest risk this season...

Numbers mean 0 to me as even a very slow season can turn out bad if steering currents are not in your favor.I say we will see a season in 2007 with numbers around 10-13 named systems but if out of that bunch 6-7 or seven make landfall then you are faceing a season worse the 2005.

Yes, J.B. is still stressing he believes Florida and the Gulf Coast face the Highest risk this year. One little fun tidbit J.B. thru out in a video the other day was about England having its worst Flooding in 60 years and to take a look at the tracks of storms 60 years ago. So I did:):)

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Personally i think Joe b maybe on the money this year with florida being at greatest risk this season...

Numbers mean 0 to me as even a very slow season can turn out bad if steering currents are not in your favor.I say we will see a season in 2007 with numbers around 10-13 named systems but if out of that bunch 6-7 or seven make landfall then you are faceing a season worse the 2005.

Yes, J.B. is still stressing he believes Florida and the Gulf Coast face the Highest risk this year. One little fun tidbit J.B. thru out in a video the other day was about England having its worst Flooding in 60 years and to take a look at the tracks of storms 60 years ago. So I did:):)

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

All I can say is ouch PBC/Broward!

[gatorcane]

I'm not convinced Florida will be at high risk this year. The steering currents just don't seem to be there.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm not convinced Florida will be at high risk this year. The steering currents just don't seem to be there.

I thnk FL is at at least 50% every year satistically no matter what the situation..

[windstorm99]

I'm not convinced Florida will be at high risk this year. The steering currents just don't seem to be there.

Steering currents are hard to predict 2 weeks in advance, and to be honest there is no telling what steering currents will be like in 2 months.If jeff masters is correct the very persistent trof we have had of the eastcoast of the united states so far this season will soon give way.

[DanKellFla]

I really don't see any local similarities in S. Fla weather paterns this year relative to past years other than the typical afternoon rain storms. Actually, I think this year has been odd. The dry season lasted a long time time. We had a few very nice weeks after the snowbirds left. Since then, it has been brutally hot. As for rain, at my house, I just went 5 days without a drop and then got some downpours on Sunday.

I think S. Fla is always at 50% chance of a hurricane.

[windstorm99]

If you live in the southflorida area meaning miami dade and broward counties be careful as a severe thunder storm warning is now in affect for our area.

Storm is moving SW with rotation indicated by doppler radar.

[Blown Away]

The t-storms have been rolling offshore w/o much resistence, which is unusual for late July. Usually they fight to make it to the coast and get blocked about 10 miles from the coast. No easterly flow yet, although I sense the weather patterns are changing. The ridge is a little late this year, IMO.