THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 72.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 73.0E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 221431Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE LLCC DOES APPEAR
TO HAVE TIGHTENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT
DIEGO GARCIA INDICATE 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF ALMOST 5 MB. THE MOST
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AT 221245Z INDICATES STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE DISTURBANCE, CONTRIBUTING TO THE
EXPOSED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
Not a bad invest to be out of season.
SW Indian: Out-of-season 90S INVEST
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Re: SW Indian: Out-of-season 90S INVEST upgraded to FAIR
FQIO26 FIMP 231200
1:31:08:11:00
SECURITE
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, MONDAY 23 JULY 2007 AT 1200 UTC .
WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.
PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS.
MARKED LOW 1002 HPA CENTRED AT 23/1200 UT NEAR 08S 72E IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE CLOCKWISE WINDS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES RADIUS OF CENTRE, EXTENDING TO 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTHERN
SECTOR, TOGETHER WITH SQUALLY AND THUNDERY WEATHER AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS.
T.O.O 23/1225 UTC
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, MONDAY 23 JULY 2007 - 1200 UTC
MARKED LOW 1002 HPA NEAR 08S 72E.
COLD FRONT ALONG 28S 48E INTO WAVE NEAR 30S 52E CONTINUES ALONG 29S
54E INTO WAVE NEAR 32S 59E CONTINUES ALONG 33S 65E 33S 75E 36S 75E
41S 90E 45S 92E 50S 88E.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALONG 22S 93E 24S 103E 30S 111E 35S 114E 40S
110E 50S 105E.
WAVE AXIS ALONG 18S 65E 20S 64E.
WAVE AXIS ALONG 02S 53E 06S 53E.
WAVE AXIS ALONG 14S 95E 18S 96E.
HIGH 1026 HPA NEAR 35S 64E
HIGH 1025 HPA NEAR 28S 75E
PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO TUESDAY 24 JULY 2007 AT 1200 UTC
8/1: SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20. SEA ROUGH.
VISIBILITY MODERATE.
8/2: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 20. SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
VISIBILITY POOR IN SHOWERS.
8/3: SOUTH EASTERLY 20. SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EAST.
VISIBILITY POOR IN SHOWERS.
8/4: SOUTH EASTERLY 20 GUSTY. SEA ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
VISIBILITY POOR IN SHOWERS.
WEST 8/5: SOUTH SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTH SOUTH WESTERLY IN NORTH. SEA MODERATE TO ROUGH. VISIBILITY
MODERATE.
EAST 8/5: CLOCKWISE 25 AROUND LOW NEAR 08S 72E. SEA ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS. VISIBILITY POOR.
8/6: VARIABLE 10. SEA MODERATE. VISIBILITY MODERATE.
8/7: SOUTH SOUTH EASTERLY 15 IN SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH SOUTH
WESTERLY 15 IN NORTH. SEA MODERATE. VISIBILITY GOOD.
PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:
NO MAJOR CHANGE.
T.O.O 23/1230 UTC=
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 73.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 231509Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE
MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AT 231400Z INDICATES STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA COINCIDING WITH
THE FLARING CONVECTION. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC. THIS
AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES MODERATE SOUTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE. IF THE LLCC CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA OF
WEAKER SHEAR, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 231509Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE
MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AT 231400Z INDICATES STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA COINCIDING WITH
THE FLARING CONVECTION. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC. THIS
AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES MODERATE SOUTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE. IF THE LLCC CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA OF
WEAKER SHEAR, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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655
WWIO21 KNES 241446
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 IRDAY
.
JULY 24 2007 1430Z
.
9.1S 68.4E NO CLASSIFICATION 90S
.
PAST POSITIONS... 8.5S 70.7E 22/0230Z IRNIGHT
8.5S 72.5E 23/1430Z IRDAY/VIS
.
REMARKS...NO COVECTION.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NMI.
.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN FOR 90S.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
ZHONG
Not much left.
WWIO21 KNES 241446
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 IRDAY
.
JULY 24 2007 1430Z
.
9.1S 68.4E NO CLASSIFICATION 90S
.
PAST POSITIONS... 8.5S 70.7E 22/0230Z IRNIGHT
8.5S 72.5E 23/1430Z IRDAY/VIS
.
REMARKS...NO COVECTION.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NMI.
.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN FOR 90S.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
ZHONG
Not much left.
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