000
WTPZ22 KNHC 231430
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
1500 UTC MON JUL 23 2007
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 108.6W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 111.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 108.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TD 07-E,TS Dalila in Eastern Pacific
Moderator: S2k Moderators
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231444
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2007
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF DALILA IS
EXPOSED BETWEEN TWO LARGE...BUT DISORGANIZED...CONVECTIVE MASSES.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND
THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE CONTINUING 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SO FAR THOUGH...THE LARGE SIZE OF DALILA'S
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS HELPED IT STAND UP TO THE SHEAR.
THE CENTER OF DALILA IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 315/9. DALILA REMAINS
SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS
AND ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST
DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND THUS HAS THE SHARPEST NORTHWARD TURN
AND THE MOST EASTWARD FORECAST TRACK...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
HAS THE WEAKEST DEPICTION AND THE MOST WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING DALILA OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH RE-BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH
AND FORCES THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
THE TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL ABATE IN ABOUT 24
HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THIS WOULD ALLOW DALILA TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER RATE THAN IT HAS DONE SO FAR. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...WITH THE GFDL REACHING IT IN
36 HR AND THE SHIPS IN 60 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR 24 HR...THEN FASTER INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KT
BY 48 HR AS THE SHEAR DECREASES. AFTER 72 HR...DALILA SHOULD MOVE
OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKEN. IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THAT DALILA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...EVEN
AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES THE STORM HAS WORK TO DO TO OVERCOME ITS
INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 14.8N 108.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 109.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 111.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 18.1N 112.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 23.5N 121.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ42 KNHC 231444
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2007
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF DALILA IS
EXPOSED BETWEEN TWO LARGE...BUT DISORGANIZED...CONVECTIVE MASSES.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND
THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE CONTINUING 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SO FAR THOUGH...THE LARGE SIZE OF DALILA'S
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS HELPED IT STAND UP TO THE SHEAR.
THE CENTER OF DALILA IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 315/9. DALILA REMAINS
SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS
AND ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST
DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND THUS HAS THE SHARPEST NORTHWARD TURN
AND THE MOST EASTWARD FORECAST TRACK...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
HAS THE WEAKEST DEPICTION AND THE MOST WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING DALILA OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH RE-BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH
AND FORCES THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
THE TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL ABATE IN ABOUT 24
HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THIS WOULD ALLOW DALILA TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER RATE THAN IT HAS DONE SO FAR. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...WITH THE GFDL REACHING IT IN
36 HR AND THE SHIPS IN 60 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR 24 HR...THEN FASTER INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KT
BY 48 HR AS THE SHEAR DECREASES. AFTER 72 HR...DALILA SHOULD MOVE
OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKEN. IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THAT DALILA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...EVEN
AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES THE STORM HAS WORK TO DO TO OVERCOME ITS
INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 14.8N 108.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 109.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 111.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 18.1N 112.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 23.5N 121.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Tropical Storm Dalila in Eastern Pacific
There has been almost no discussion so far in this thread on Dalila. This new system isn't working guys.
I'm surprised TD7-E became a TS at 5:00 am because at 1:00 am, it looked like it was weakening and the convection was very thin and a sheared mess. During those 4 hours, it must have really burst with convection to look like a TS. Not bad but the shear is still the enemy and it's holding up well.
There is a chance this could become the next hurricane. I'm still waiting for that major...
(after all, it is the Epac).
I'm surprised TD7-E became a TS at 5:00 am because at 1:00 am, it looked like it was weakening and the convection was very thin and a sheared mess. During those 4 hours, it must have really burst with convection to look like a TS. Not bad but the shear is still the enemy and it's holding up well.
There is a chance this could become the next hurricane. I'm still waiting for that major...
(after all, it is the Epac).
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dalila in Eastern Pacific
Cyclenall wrote:There has been almost no discussion so far in this thread on Dalila. This new system isn't working guys.
Considering this storm has been of status for under twelve hours, of course during the day while most are at work, school, etc... I think it's a little early to call this system a bust.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dalila in Eastern Pacific
senorpepr wrote:Cyclenall wrote:There has been almost no discussion so far in this thread on Dalila. This new system isn't working guys.
Considering this storm has been of status for under twelve hours, of course during the day while most are at work, school, etc... I think it's a little early to call this system a bust.
12 hours is quite a while for tropical cyclones. School? Maybe summer school for the very few
. I do know that even if it's a weekday morning, there are more posts then this usually.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 42
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Storm Dalila in Eastern Pacific
Cyclenall wrote:senorpepr wrote:Cyclenall wrote:There has been almost no discussion so far in this thread on Dalila. This new system isn't working guys.
Considering this storm has been of status for under twelve hours, of course during the day while most are at work, school, etc... I think it's a little early to call this system a bust.
12 hours is quite a while for tropical cyclones. School? Maybe summer school for the very few
We are talking about a tropical cyclone in the EPAC--twelve hours on this forum is a lifetime. School--a lot of schools go year round, especially those near where this cyclone is somewhat remotely near. This is actually par for the course. I wouldn't freak out just yet.
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HurricaneRobert
- Category 3
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Dalila in Eastern Pacific
493
WTPZ42 KNHC 232040
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN A 20 TO 25 KT VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE RATHER DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED
APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION....AND TO THE
WEST OF LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT
FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT A
GENEROUS 35 KT.
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING THE
CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...DALILA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD
INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...GFDL...LGEM...AND THE HWRF...WHICH INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 55 KT BY DAY 3...BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED...WITH DALILA'S MOTION INFLUENCED BY A WEAK
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND THE GFDN CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS
AROUND MID-PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 1312Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.4N 109.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.1N 109.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.2N 110.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 111.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.8N 112.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 114.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 24.0N 119.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
WTPZ42 KNHC 232040
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN A 20 TO 25 KT VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE RATHER DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED
APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION....AND TO THE
WEST OF LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT
FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT A
GENEROUS 35 KT.
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING THE
CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...DALILA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD
INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...GFDL...LGEM...AND THE HWRF...WHICH INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 55 KT BY DAY 3...BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED...WITH DALILA'S MOTION INFLUENCED BY A WEAK
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND THE GFDN CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS
AROUND MID-PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 1312Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.4N 109.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.1N 109.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.2N 110.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 111.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.8N 112.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 114.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 24.0N 119.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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303
WTPZ42 KNHC 240241
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF DALILA THIS
EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER...CLOSE ENOUGH AT 00Z TO RESULT
IN A T3.0...45 KT...DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE THEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...AN
ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC SUGGESTED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY AROUND 30
KT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.
DALILA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK AND MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340/7. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
NORTH OF DALILA NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA...ERODING THE RIDGING THAT HAD
BEEN STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF DALILA
AND ENHANCES A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR DALILA TO BEGIN TO FEEL DEEP LAYER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND CURVE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS A LITTLE LESS CLUSTERED THAN IT
WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND THE GFDN NOW SHOWS A TRACK VERY NEAR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS SLOWLY DECREASING...AND SHOULD SOON
PERMIT DALILA TO STRENGTHEN. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...ALL PEAKING A LITTLE BELOW THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 16.1N 109.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 17.1N 109.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.1N 110.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 19.8N 111.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 24.5N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTPZ42 KNHC 240241
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF DALILA THIS
EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER...CLOSE ENOUGH AT 00Z TO RESULT
IN A T3.0...45 KT...DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE THEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...AN
ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC SUGGESTED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY AROUND 30
KT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.
DALILA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK AND MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340/7. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
NORTH OF DALILA NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA...ERODING THE RIDGING THAT HAD
BEEN STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF DALILA
AND ENHANCES A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR DALILA TO BEGIN TO FEEL DEEP LAYER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND CURVE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS A LITTLE LESS CLUSTERED THAN IT
WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND THE GFDN NOW SHOWS A TRACK VERY NEAR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS SLOWLY DECREASING...AND SHOULD SOON
PERMIT DALILA TO STRENGTHEN. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...ALL PEAKING A LITTLE BELOW THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 16.1N 109.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 17.1N 109.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.1N 110.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 19.8N 111.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 24.5N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007
LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DALILA IS
BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN. THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW SITUATED CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT IN LINE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.
DALILA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT
A 12 HOUR AVERAGE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/6. THE
OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF DALILA
NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH HAS TEMPORARILY
ERODED A LARGER-SCALE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WESTWARD...TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THE CMC...ECMWF...AND GFDN INDICATING THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SECOND
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SUSPICIOUSLY STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW A WEAKER
DALILA TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SECOND SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THROUGH
48 HOURS AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT THEREAFTER.
EVEN THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL.
ADDITIONALLY...DALILA WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT
TWO DAYS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN
THE SHORT-TERM AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LITTLE CHANGED AND SO IS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 16.7N 109.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 17.6N 110.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 18.7N 110.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 19.6N 111.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 20.4N 112.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007
LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DALILA IS
BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN. THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW SITUATED CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT IN LINE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.
DALILA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT
A 12 HOUR AVERAGE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/6. THE
OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF DALILA
NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH HAS TEMPORARILY
ERODED A LARGER-SCALE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WESTWARD...TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THE CMC...ECMWF...AND GFDN INDICATING THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SECOND
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SUSPICIOUSLY STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW A WEAKER
DALILA TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SECOND SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THROUGH
48 HOURS AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT THEREAFTER.
EVEN THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL.
ADDITIONALLY...DALILA WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT
TWO DAYS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN
THE SHORT-TERM AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LITTLE CHANGED AND SO IS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 16.7N 109.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 17.6N 110.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 18.7N 110.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 19.6N 111.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 20.4N 112.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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NHC is currently having technical difficulties.
Advisory 11 issued by HPC:
WTPZ22 KNHC 241452
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500 UTC TUE JUL 24 2007
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.6W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.6W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.6W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 111.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 10NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.5N 111.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 113.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.5N 119.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.3N 122.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 110.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BANN
WTPZ42 KNHC 241454
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007
LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DALILA IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE SOME CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT IN LINE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
EXCEPT FOR AN ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA BASED
ON A 0922 UTC AQUA SATELLITE PASS WHICH SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
A BIT TO THE WEST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED THE STORM TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...WHICH
ALLOWS THE STORM TO TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY PATH WITH TIME. THE
GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR WEST DALILA WILL GO. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SHOW THE STORM TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY PATH AS EACH OF
THOSE MODELS ALLOW DALILA TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT
FIELD CAUSED BY A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS...
HWRF...GDFL...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW LESS OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND
THEY TAKE DALILA ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE. GIVEN THE ANOMOLOUS
STRENGTH IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A TREND TO THE WEST OVER TIME...WE ARE FAVORING
THE MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
IDEAL. ADDITIONALLY...DALILA WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS
AFTER 48 HOURS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING
BEYOND 48 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LITTLE CHANGED AND
SO IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.7N 110.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 111.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 18.5N 111.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 19.3N 112.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 20.1N 113.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 22.5N 119.3W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 23.3N 122.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER BANN
Advisory 11 issued by HPC:
WTPZ22 KNHC 241452
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500 UTC TUE JUL 24 2007
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.6W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.6W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.6W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 111.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 10NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.5N 111.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.1N 113.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.5N 119.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.3N 122.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 110.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BANN
WTPZ42 KNHC 241454
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007
LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DALILA IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE SOME CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT IN LINE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
EXCEPT FOR AN ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA BASED
ON A 0922 UTC AQUA SATELLITE PASS WHICH SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
A BIT TO THE WEST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...WHICH
HAS ALLOWED THE STORM TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...WHICH
ALLOWS THE STORM TO TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY PATH WITH TIME. THE
GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR WEST DALILA WILL GO. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SHOW THE STORM TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY PATH AS EACH OF
THOSE MODELS ALLOW DALILA TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT
FIELD CAUSED BY A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS...
HWRF...GDFL...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW LESS OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND
THEY TAKE DALILA ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE. GIVEN THE ANOMOLOUS
STRENGTH IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A TREND TO THE WEST OVER TIME...WE ARE FAVORING
THE MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
IDEAL. ADDITIONALLY...DALILA WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS
AFTER 48 HOURS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING
BEYOND 48 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LITTLE CHANGED AND
SO IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.7N 110.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 111.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 18.5N 111.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 19.3N 112.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 20.1N 113.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 22.5N 119.3W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 23.3N 122.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER BANN
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windstorm99
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1578
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
- Location: Miami, Florida
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Storm Dalila in Eastern Pacific
If there was no shear, this could have rapidly formed into a hurricane 
. That convection is not common (it's common in the Wpac though) here. It strongly reminds me of Bud from July 2006. I'm not so sure it's 40 knots, looks more like 45-50 knots. I think it might have to do with the LLC and where the convection is placed. Another thing is they are in some backup mode and the normal forecasters aren't doing the discussions. I like the name Bann.
. That convection is not common (it's common in the Wpac though) here. It strongly reminds me of Bud from July 2006. I'm not so sure it's 40 knots, looks more like 45-50 knots. I think it might have to do with the LLC and where the convection is placed. Another thing is they are in some backup mode and the normal forecasters aren't doing the discussions. I like the name Bann.
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HurricaneRobert
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: Tropical Storm Dalila in Eastern Pacific
The gfdl and hwrf models both show it peaking at category 1 strength.
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AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2811
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re:
HURAKAN wrote:
COSME & DALILA IN A FAMILY PICTURE!!!
They're pretty far apart. Must be some tension between them.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: Re:
AnnularCane wrote:HURAKAN wrote:
COSME & DALILA IN A FAMILY PICTURE!!!
They're pretty far apart. Must be some tension between them.
Family members, the farther they are apart, the more they like each other. Distance avoids tension!!!
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