Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[Cyclone1]

I looked it up too.

band name alert..

Hurricane Kludge & The Spurious Lows...

Hey, look how "Katrina and The Waves" turned out. "I'm walkin on stormsurge! WHOA!"

[caneman]

I thik if we're going to find development anywhere in the short term, this is the area to watch. Nice vis shot here

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I believe low shear here and some of the lowest pressure readings are in this area and not the East GOM. Keep an eye on it.

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like just a bunch of outflow boundaries and sheared convection....I wouldnt expect too much out of this

[TexWx]

BOC?

[Aric Dunn]

there appears that there is a low (or a circulation) just inland in mexico down in the BOC.. easily visible.. from here http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

it is associated with the tropical wave and looks to be the same area that the nhc said the other day that there was "some cyclonic turning noted" well it appears to have made it to where it is.. but its inland so would nto put much money on it. however it it were to move over water and hung around a little the shear is forecast to decrease in the BOC starting tomorrow, but it would have to stay fairly far south initailly to stay away from the shear till the upper low moved away.

[inda_iwall]

Grasping for straws, I like it. Always good when i see people trying make something out of absolutely nothing. Keeps the gas prices low, you guys realize if we have a big Gulf storm it will drive up gas 25¢ to 50¢ just on potential for disaster. So remember that when you wishcast. I like tracking a storm when there is one, but I do not wish for one when there is none. There is nothing brewing in the BOC, I garontee.

[TexWx]

thank you for clearing that up....

-removed-?

[Nimbus]

Looks like a circulation starting to get going in the middle of the BOC only time will tell.

[NDG]

Looks like a circulation starting to get going in the middle of the BOC only time will tell.

I don't see any indications of a circulation in the open waters of the BOC, there appears to be one inland, but not over the water, nothing but SE to E winds across the BOC. What has to be watched tomorrow is if that apparent circulation inland near 18N/93.3W moves into the BOC.

[caneman]

Grasping for straws, I like it. Always good when i see people trying make something out of absolutely nothing. Keeps the gas prices low, you guys realize if we have a big Gulf storm it will drive up gas 25¢ to 50¢ just on potential for disaster. So remember that when you wishcast. I like tracking a storm when there is one, but I do not wish for one when there is none. There is nothing brewing in the BOC, I garontee.

Hmmm,

7 posts and a member for how long? Already calling people people I disagree with??????? Care to share with us your analysis and why it couldn't develop, other than, it will make gas prices go up?

[Bane]

Looks like a circulation starting to get going in the middle of the BOC only time will tell.

There is no circulation there.

[srainhoutx]

will mention that HOU/GAL and Corpus Christi both have mentioned possible developement via NAM in AFD's today. Niether are ready to buy into it yet...

sipets...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241943
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
243 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...

NOTE...NAM HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST SOME WEAK TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT
WITH SUCH POOR LOOKING CU OVER THE YUCATAN REGION NOW AM VERY HESITANT
TO JUMP ON IT.


000
FXUS64 KCRP 240959
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
459 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007



SHOULD ALSO MENTION THE NAM IS SPINNING SOME SORT OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM UP ACROSS THE WRN GULF...BUT THE NAM HAD A STRONG BIAS
TOWARD DOING THIS LAST SUMMER AND AM IGNORING THIS. MODEL WIND
FIELDS HAVING ALL KINDS OF TROUBLE DUE TO THESE SPURIOUS LOWS AND
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND TENDED TO KEEP WINDS ON LOW SIDE 15 KTS OR
LESS.

we shall see what developes, if anything the next couple of days.

[jasons2k]

We'll see. Not getting overly excited. NAM had a BoC low about once a week last year it seemed. IIRC, 98L was the only one that came close to being anything.

[wxman57]

No low in BoC. Straight SE winds from MX to TX. Lowest pressure is along TX coast (1012.7mb) Pressures are about 2mb higher in BoC. Development chances extremely small. The northern part of the wave in the BoC could spread more rain into Texas in a few days, though.

[Cyclone1]

This is what the NAM is spinning up

[caneman]

No low in BoC. Straight SE winds from MX to TX. Lowest pressure is along TX coast (1012.7mb) Pressures are about 2mb higher in BoC. Development chances extremely small. The northern part of the wave in the BoC could spread more rain into Texas in a few days, though.

You just don't want to work.

[vaffie]

1011 mb in Campeche, Mexico, down 4 mb from yesterday.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/76695.html

[wxman57]

No low in BoC. Straight SE winds from MX to TX. Lowest pressure is along TX coast (1012.7mb) Pressures are about 2mb higher in BoC. Development chances extremely small. The northern part of the wave in the BoC could spread more rain into Texas in a few days, though.

You just don't want to work.

I like working for "real storms", not for a weak, sheared TS. But I do prefer that hurricanes develop around 9am Monday morning and die out by 4pm Friday. I'm enjoying my Saturdays off in July (still work Sunday mornings for an hour). Maybe I can go another couple of weekends until I have no days off until October.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Interesting storms exiting the Yucatan Penn

[DESTRUCTION5]

yea that Spurious low has stepped into the bath tub down there..Blowup noticed..