No July Named System?

[MGC]

With one week left in July, and really nothing on the radar that poses any threat, I'd like to remind ourselves that a July without a named system is not that rare. Since the warm phase begun in 1995, the following seasons have been without a named system in July: 2001, 2000, 1999. Two seasons had a late forming TC, 2004, when Alex formed on July 31st and 1998 when Alex formed on the 27th. I'm still confident that the 2007 will be above normal in terms of named storms and intense hurricanes. Of particular threat of an intense hurricane are areas of the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico where ocean thermal content is well above normal....MGC

[fci]

Would be pretty funny if this season turns out to be very quiet in spite of all the predictions of above normal activity.

This season seems pretty normal to me thus far if not a little quiet.
So.... why not a prediction for a "normal" season perhaps quieter than normal?

A whole season of 20 page threads on all Invests and non-stop debates and arguements over Invests and whether each one should even be called an Invest!!!!!

[Cyclone1]

With one week left in July, and really nothing on the radar that poses any threat, I'd like to remind ourselves that a July without a named system is not that rare. Since the warm phase begun in 1995, the following seasons have been without a named system in July: 2001, 2000, 1999. Two seasons had a late forming TC, 2004, when Alex formed on July 31st and 1998 when Alex formed on the 27th. I'm still confident that the 2007 will be above normal in terms of named storms and intense hurricanes. Of particular threat of an intense hurricane are areas of the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico where ocean thermal content is well above normal....MGC

Thank you!! Couldn't have said it better myself.

[Berwick Bay]

You may be right MGC about no July system, but there is still a week to go, and you never know. You are definitely right about this being a pretty normal state of affairs, with a possible big pick up in August. But its still a drag! Many of us come here because we are storm enthusiasts, and most of us know that in general, the odds are always against a given storm forming within a given set of conditions. But we hope anyway, knowing that storms in the past have defied the odds and developed either where no development was foreseen, or developed more quickly than expected. Most of us are well aware that the percentages for development might be only 5 or 10% (especially at this time of year), but we are not phased by this, and come to this site anyway (even in the slower months) looking for that small possiblity of development. Its what makes this place fun. But the constant rain on our parade can be depressing.

[dwg71]

Since 1995 there have been 7 years in which we did not get our first Hurricane until after July 31st (98,99,01,02,04,06). The overall numbers for those years averaged - 13.3/7.7/3.3.

From the time of the first Hurricane, the remainder of the seasons averaged - 10.9/7.7/3.3 Highest amount after 1st Hurricane 2000 & 2004 had 15 named storms, 1999, 2001, & 2004 had 9 Hurricanes. 1999 had 5 majors. Lows for named storms were 2006 - 5, Hurricanes 2002 - 4, Majors 2002 & 2006 - 2.
Bottom line - there is not a coorelation. It could be 2006 and quiet or 2004 and active. Time will tell.

Hurricane season has 129 of 183 days left, we are only 30% through.

Here in Texas I put October 1st as the date of last real threat for a Hurricane - Only Jerry(min cat 1) in 89 made landfall later than that in recent history. So I really am only concerned about the next 68 days. Not that it cant happen,its just not very likely.

[windstorm99]

I think its very likely we will finish the month with no named storms.This is nothing abnormal as june and july are months with low tropical cyclone activity.As we move into august things should pick as it normally does during a normal season.Adrian

[Stormcenter]

Would be pretty funny if this season turns out to be very quiet in spite of all the predictions of above normal activity.

This season seems pretty normal to me thus far if not a little quiet.
So.... why not a prediction for a "normal" season perhaps quieter than normal?

A whole season of 20 page threads on all Invests and non-stop debates and arguements over Invests and whether each one should even be called an Invest!!!!!

That is my thinking as of "today" is we will have an average season. They key is
how many of those storms from this average season will actually become intense and make U.S. landfall?

[DESTRUCTION5]

I would still not discount a storm forming before the end of July..I see Potential..

[dwg71]

What was the last landfalling US Hurricane??? Wilma - some 20 months ago or so? That's quite a lull...

[Ed Mahmoud]

If we do get a July storm, it'll be on the 30th or 31st. But the SAL pix from CIMSS still suggest it isn't quite time for Cape Verde season, even with the waves looking better with each new one that comes off.

[HURAKAN]

What was the last landfalling US Hurricane??? Wilma - some 20 months ago or so? That's quite a lull...

Isn't that good news!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

IIRC, the record for gap between landfalling US hurricanes was between 1980's Hurricane Allen and 1983's Hurricane Alicia.

[dwg71]

What was the last landfalling US Hurricane??? Wilma - some 20 months ago or so? That's quite a lull...

Isn't that good news!!!

That is exceptional news. I hope we break the record...

[dwg71]

What was the last landfalling US Hurricane??? Wilma - some 20 months ago or so? That's quite a lull...

Isn't that good news!!!

We would have to go until August 29,2008 to break that record... stranger things have happend.

[Berwick Bay]

HURAKAN wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
What was the last landfalling US Hurricane??? Wilma - some 20 months ago or so? That's quite a lull...


Isn't that good news!!!


That is exceptional news. I hope we break the record...
_____________________________________________________
Is this for real? I guess the ideal situation would be to have only "fish" storms. But in general when someone says "fish" its usually in a derisive way, meaning that the storm is not really worthy of our attention. It tends to get dismissed. It becomes then a storm for the professionals and statisticians. From what I've read, you guys have a passion for tropical weather. Would your passion for the tropics be satisfied with only "fish" storms? Or better yet, suppose we had no tropical cyclones this year, Would that make your season? I find that hard to believe. But it does sound politically correct. I guess to each his own.

[Cyclone1]

I like the idea of a 2005 like season, minus the D, E, K, R, S, and W.

[Hurricaneman]

history indicates that July is supposed to be dead hurricane wwise, but this season is going to take off like a rocket once we hit August

[Cyclone1]

history indicates that July is supposed to be dead hurricane wwise, but this season is going to take off like a rocket once we hit August

Couldn't agree more.

[dwg71]

HURAKAN wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
What was the last landfalling US Hurricane??? Wilma - some 20 months ago or so? That's quite a lull...


Isn't that good news!!!


That is exceptional news. I hope we break the record...
_____________________________________________________
Is this for real? I guess the ideal situation would be to have only "fish" storms. But in general when someone says "fish" its usually in a derisive way, meaning that the storm is not really worthy of our attention. It tends to get dismissed. It becomes then a storm for the professionals and statisticians. From what I've read, you guys have a passion for tropical weather. Would your passion for the tropics be satisfied with only "fish" storms? Or better yet, suppose we had no tropical cyclones this year, Would that make your season? I find that hard to believe. But it does sound politically correct. I guess to each his own.

My dream tropical season would end like this.....0/0/0. I take an interest in storms, I do not wish for them or get an adrendalin high from them.

[HUC]

With 0/0/0each year,the temperatures will rise to 100/100/100.....and more/MORE/MORE!!!