IF something does form here

[Berwick Bay]

At 21N and 79W during the July 26-July 29 time frame (along Cuban southern shores, I'm really gonna' freak. This was the area that I "saw" for possible development back many, many days ago. I was just looking at the sat picture which shows heavy storms coalescing in south Cuban coastal waters, brought there I believe by that large upper level high centered in the NW Carib. The High is pumping all that moisture in the E Gom down over Cuba and into those bays. Here's the original forecast followed by the IR PIC of the area.


Berwick Bay Post subject: Re: When will the first Hurricane in Atlantic form?
Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:15 pm

Joined: Tue May 08, 2007 9:37 pm
Posts: 461 Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Best bet for hurricane formation July 26-July29 along southern coast of Cuba (near mid area of southern coast) at about 21N and 79W. By that time upper level trough over area should have moved out bringing in more stable conditions from E Carib. Tropical Waves getting a little more impressive by then. Looking for upgrade to Depression near the Carib Islands with upgrade to hurricane at 21N and 79W. Another possibility would be a simple conglomeration of thunderstorms in the east Carib drifting west and then organizing quickly south of the Cuban Coast. I think I favor this latter scenario. But in any case July 26-July 29 at 21N and 79W for possible hurricane.

[O Town]

I hope not because I am leaving for the southern gulf (Sanibel) on the 30th.

[Cyclone1]

Congratulations on being the most psychic user on Storm2k, BB!

[TheShrimper]

Berwick, you need to get a life. This constant rehashing and patting oneself on the back is getting real old. Look, if it comes to fruition, you will get the raves you so desire. Refrain from bringing up "what was said and when". It is starting to piss alot of people off, most of whom will not say a thing. But I will. You are setting yourself up for a big let down. You made a forecast...see what happens. We do not need a frame by frame analysis of the ordeal. TheShrimper.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Berwick, you need to get a life. This constant rehashing and patting oneself on the back is getting real old. Look, if it comes to fruition, you will get the raves you so desire. Refrain from bringing up "what was said and when". It is starting to piss alot of people off, most of whom will not say a thing. But I will. You are setting yourself up for a big let down. You made a forecast...see what happens. We do not need a frame by frame analysis of the ordeal. TheShrimper.

This is ridiculous attack. Sorry but
that was the most...ohh whatever

Anyway...Berwick your opinions are welcome.

Crazy attacks like these are just irrelevant and nonsensical.

[TheShrimper]

Listen TBH, I never said they were crap. All I said is that we do not need a play by play broadcast at what is happening. Everyones opinions are welcomed, make them, dont dwell on them every second. You need to mind your own business intstead of critiqueing my viewpoints.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

But critiquing is fun...

He's not broadcasting he's forecasting.

The reason I addressed the above post is
because it was really vicious and inappropriate
attack on another member.

[Sanibel]

Looks like that prediction will bust anyway. The upper level is really hectic all through the w carib/GOM.

I fear if it suddenly calms.

[Berwick Bay]

Tampa, thank you but don't worry about it. Actually I like Shrimper. One thing about him, he's a straight up guy. And he's making a lot of sense. I probably am setting myself up for a big letdown, in fact I almost certainly am. But, if there is cyclogenesis here in the next 4 days, it will truly be incredible. Also, I like Shrimper's name. My Dad worked in the shrimping industry for most of his life.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tampa, thank you but don't worry about it. Actually I like Shrimper. One thing about him, he's a straight up guy. And he's making a lot of sense. I probably am setting myself up for a big letdown, in fact I almost certainly am. But, if there is cyclogenesis here in the next 4 days, it will truly be incredible. Also, I like Shrimper's name. My Dad worked in the shrimping industry for most of his life.

I just think anyone correcting anyone should say it
politely.

[Bane]

we don't have to worry about anything forming here. also, couldn't this have gone in the existing central Caribbean thread?

[Berwick Bay]

I'm sure your probably right Bane. Nothin' gonna happen. But look, we even have a met posting an admittedly suspect model run showing a tropical impact in Texas. He could also take the easy way out and say "nothin' gonna happen". But I admire him for bringing to the board some kind of long shot tropical scenario. Otherwise, what would we do?

[Berwick Bay]

No development. This really is embarrasing, even humiliating. Berwick Bay comes up empty. Oh well, no more bothersome "pseudo-psychic" predictions here. I'll sit here with my dial-up and watch as others post links to models, surface pressures, impending breaks in ridges, etc... A muggle amongst powerful weather wizards of the 21st Century.

[cpdaman]

berwick keep predicting please, when ever you get the hunch something may develop even down the line, post it, that is what this board is here for

you will probably get a little better with experience

i have no idea what our shrimp boat captain is talking about because i like your posts and his are a blatant attack, regardless of his opinions, they are fine but nobody makes him click on your posts, childish.

you said your forecast went bust and you did it like a man, keep forecasting and predicting, please

[skysummit]

I, for one, also like to read your predictions Berwick....whether they come true or not. Some here seem to have forgotten this is an open, public, tropical forum.

[gatorcane]

I really doubt anything will be forming here. Its just a few showers with light to moderate convection.

Next...

[CajunMama]

BB, there's nothing to be embarrassed about. It happens to ALL of us.

Note to those who insist on publicly attacking another member...we aren't going to put up with it. I suggest refamiliarizing yourself with s2k's rules of conduct.

Rule #2 . Conduct. Storm2k is a FLAME free site. We do not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults. viewtopic.php?f=37&t=87189I

I don't know how many times it's been said and falls on deaf ears that if you don't like what a member is posting....don't open the thread. And remember to treat others the way you wish to be treated.

[skysummit]

Berwick Bay....check your PMs.

[Steve]

I certainly undestand where The Shrimper is coming from, and he's correct. But that doesn't mean I don't enjoy reading Berwick's "pseudo-psychic" (his [tm]) predictions. Those threads are great. Here's a pseudo-psychic prediction of my own - the Panhandle gets clobbered in September (sorry guys, it's my 2nd favorite part of the country too) when my idiot sister-in-law planned a stay at Navarre Beach. While it's always a great time to be in Northwest Florida, why someone would schedule their vacation in the 2nd week of September is somewhat baffling to me.

And I'm only kidding.

Steve