New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

ETA is a terrible tropical model though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Won't happen, your right the ETA is not a good model. It might if the Gfs joined in.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS doesn't have it!!! ETA is terrible with tropics!!!!!!!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Remember now ETA is terrible on tropics. 0Z GFS doesn't have it.

[Jam151]

[Aric Dunn]

Remember now ETA is terrible on tropics. 0Z GFS doesn't have it.

lol .. im having fun ... just posting stuff

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/javaa ... height=700











http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/main_table.html



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

[Aric Dunn]

the WRF forms something ? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html



http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wrf/



http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/pages/rt.html

[Aric Dunn]

what cant have fun ?

[Chacor]

The abbreviation of the model you posted the animated graphic above says it best I think Aric... Tropical system? "NAH"

[Duddy]

Here's my local forecast discussion, it mentions the wave near the Yucatan.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE
NEAR THE YUCATAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EARLY THURSDAY AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW
AND WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE COMMONPLACE WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OR GREATER.
THOUGH IT HASN`T RAINED MUCH THE LAST FEW DAYS THE GROUND REMAINS
NEARLY SATURATED. AS THIS NEARS IN TIME THE FORECAST WILL BE
REFINED TO MORE ACCURATELY PORTRAY THE RAINFALL THREAT.

[Aric Dunn]

The abbreviation of the model you posted the animated graphic above says it best I think Aric... Tropical system? "NAH"

not allowed to have fun // well that no fun

[DrewFL]

Here's what is ....or is not:

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
141 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

VALID JUL 25/0000 UTC THRU JUL 28/1200 UTC


...ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GULF OF MEXICO...

INITIALIZATION AND EARLY HRS OF THE FCST INDICATE THE NAM IS TOO
STRONG WITH ITS ENERGY THAT IT BRINGS NWD THRU THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE CANADIAN GLBL IS THE ONLY OTHER MODEL TO SHOW A WELL
DEFINED FEATURE... AND IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE WITH FEATURES OF
TROPICAL ORIGIN. THEREFORE RECOMMEND COMBINING THE IDEAS OF
GFS/UKMET/12Z ECMWF SOLNS.

RAUSCH

MODEL BIASES AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

[tailgater]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_850_084l.gif

ETA is a terrible tropical model though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here's another view of that model.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... slp&loop=1

[Berwick Bay]

Big blow-up in Bay of Campeche this morning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[ronjon]

We seem to have two threads on the same subject here. Anyway, shear in the BOC is around 10 kts with lesser shear a little further north off the Mex coast. I would keep my eye on this one for a home grown system - if it develops proabably stays weak since it only has a window of 48-72 hrs prior to landfall.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

[Aric Dunn]

yeah .. i would say we have something happeing from the looks of this morning! have to wait for the visible images

it looks good

[Thunder44]

Take a look at the thunderstorm blow-up this morning over BOC and SW GOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

Now look at 6z NAM and 6z GFS at 12z this morning:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_006l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

The NAM may be overdoing low pressure development in BOC, but it looks like to me the QPF fields are better than the GFS.

This may not have to do with the tropics, but the NAM was much better with the storm along the east coast Monday than the GFS.

Upper-level winds in this area not too bad either. Between 10kts to 20kts of 9z:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html