TD 07-E,TS Dalila in Eastern Pacific

[cycloneye]

24/1800 UTC 17.0N 110.9W T3.0/3.0 DALILA -- East Pacific Ocean


A little more stronger.

[Cyclenall]

If there was no shear, this could have rapidly formed into a hurricane . That convection is not common (it's common in the Wpac though) here. It strongly reminds me of Bud from July 2006. I'm not so sure it's 40 knots, looks more like 45-50 knots. I think it might have to do with the LLC and where the convection is placed. Another thing is they are in some backup mode and the normal forecasters aren't doing the discussions. I like the name Bann.

The NRL has Dalila at 50 knots. I was correct .

I'm quite impressed with this cyclone. I just wish there was no shear! There are even a few hints of RI which with this type of shear, is unthinkable.

[HURAKAN]

2100 UTC Tue Jul 24 2007

tropical storm center located near 17.3n 110.2w at 24/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 6 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 997 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 0ne 10se 10sw 0nw.
34 kt....... 0ne 70se 100sw 0nw.
12 ft seas.. 15ne 60se 90sw 15nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 17.3n 110.2w at 24/2100z
at 24/1800z center was located near 17.0n 110.2w

forecast valid 25/0600z 18.2n 110.7w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 0ne 30se 25sw 0nw.
34 kt... 50ne 65se 70sw 20nw.

Forecast valid 25/1800z 19.0n 111.4w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 10ne 20se 25sw 0nw.
34 kt... 50ne 65se 70sw 25nw.

Forecast valid 26/0600z 19.8n 112.6w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 30se 40sw 15nw.
34 kt... 55ne 55se 65sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 26/1800z 20.5n 113.8w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 15ne 25se 35sw 10nw.
34 kt... 55ne 55se 65sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 27/1800z 21.8n 116.5w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 40se 40sw 50nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 225 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 28/1800z 22.8n 119.3w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 29/1800z 23.6n 122.1w...dissipating
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 17.3n 110.2w

next advisory at 25/0300z

$$
forecaster bann

[HURAKAN]

DALILA'S BEST SO FAR!!!

[AnnularCane]

If she's being sheared, it doesn't seem very obvious by looking at her.

[cycloneye]

088
WTPZ42 KNHC 242054
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007

LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DALILA
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DESPITE MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KTS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

VISIBILE...IR...AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SUGGEST THAT
THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF DALILA WAS NOT AS FAR WEST AS
EARLIER THOUGHT.

THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE
THIS MORNING...BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN ABOUT HOW A TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF DALILA WILL INFLUENCE ITS TRACK. A WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE
OVER MEXICO HAS ALLOWED DALILA TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST ALLOWS THE NORTHWARD TREND TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT
12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE STARTING TO CURVE THE STORM TO THE WEST IN A
FASHION SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL ALLOW FOR
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF DALILA. THE WAY THE
GFS AND GFDL HANDLE THIS SECOND TROUGH IS PREFERRED OVER THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 16 KNOTS OR SO...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 OT 6 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. GIVEN THE DECREASING SHEAR...WE WOULD EXPECT THE STORM WILL
BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 60 KTS BY 36 HOURS. THE STORM
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER THAT ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.3N 110.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 18.2N 110.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 19.0N 111.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 19.8N 112.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 113.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 21.8N 116.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 22.8N 119.3W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 23.6N 122.1W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

$$

FORECASTER BANN


The discussion was released late but here it is from the folks of HPC.

[Cyclenall]

The chances of it becoming a hurricane are going up. I figured that much after today.

[HURAKAN]

NOT BAD!!!

[Chacor]

Not a cane yet...

EP, 07, 2007072500, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1104W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 50, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DALILA, D,

[cycloneye]

990
WTPZ42 KNHC 250234
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DALILA'S CONVECTION HAS ACQUIRED A MORE
BANDED APPEARANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS...
ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING A LITTLE OF LATE. THE LATEST
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 3.0...OR 45 KT...WHILE THE
CIMSS ADT GAVE ABOUT 50 KT. GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE IS DUE SHORTLY
AFTER ADVISORY TIME THAT MIGHT HELP WITH THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

MICROWAVE PASSES AROUND 01Z INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
330/6. MODEL FIELDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A SMALL
INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND 18Z UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH
COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO TURN DALILA TOWARED THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST. AT THE PRESENT TIME...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A TRACK ANY CLOSER THAN ABOUT 150 NM TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO REFLECT MORE OF
AN INTERACTION WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.

ALTHOUGH THE BANDING STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED TODAY...DALILA IS STILL
HAVING DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED. HOWEVER...
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS NOW REPLACED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
STORM...AND DALILA STILL HAS ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO OF WARM WATER
AHEAD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AND CALLS
FOR DALILA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 18.2N 110.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 19.1N 110.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 20.0N 111.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 21.4N 113.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 23.5N 123.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HurricaneRobert]

They're being modest. I think it will be the second hurricane this year. Although yesterday it didn't look impressive at all - like one of those weak TS we had last season.

[CrazyC83]

At this point, I agree with 50 kt. Maybe 55 at the most based on the CDO formation, but I don't think it is a hurricane.

[HurricaneRobert]

Not yet, but it will be.

[Cyclenall]

It's one of those weird shaped tropical cyclones right now. It's working to get to the goal of becoming a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2007

THE OVERALL CLOUD SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA APPEARS A LITTLE
LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND
THE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS
BROKEN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS IN
THE 45-50 KT RANGE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON
THESE DATA.

DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 330/7. THIS MOTION APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF
WEAKNESS WITHIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS WEAKNESS
WILL ERODE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO EXPAND
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST. THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND GFDN
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS NOW INDICATE A TURN
WESTWARD...AND SOME EVEN SHOW A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST
BEYOND DAY 4.

DESPITE AN OTHERWISE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...DALILA
APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF STABLE AIR. DALILA
MAY BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. STILL...THE CYCLONE HAS
ANOTHER DAY OR SO WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION QUICKLY SHUTS BEYOND 36 HOURS AS DALILA IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
A BIT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE LOWER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 19.0N 111.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 19.7N 111.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 20.6N 112.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 21.4N 114.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

It seems she has no intention to become a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Dalila has about 24 hrs of heat!!!

[HURAKAN]

YESTERDAY 14 UTC


TODAY 11 UTC


Dalila's good times appear to be over.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to decay.

[Chacor]

Down to 45 kts at 12Z:

EP, 07, 2007072512, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1117W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 120, 90, 0, 1010, 200, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DALILA, D,

[cycloneye]

919
WTPZ42 KNHC 251434
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
800 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NORTHERN HALF IS ALREADY
FEELING THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS WHICH PREVAIL NORTH OF 20
NORTH. IN FACT...LATEST SST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WATERS IN THAT REGION. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...DALILA
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE PORTION OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER COOLER
WATERS. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION HAVE GREATLY
DIMINISHED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.

DALILA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD AND DALILA BECOMES A SHALLOWER CYCLONE...A TURN
MORE TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN
SHOWING THE WESTWARD TURN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.7N 111.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 20.6N 112.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 22.3N 115.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 24.0N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1200Z 24.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA