No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

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Sean in New Orleans
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No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

#1 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:33 pm

Pattern of upper air shearing winds is predominant and strong in the N. GOM....nothing will come to fruition until we see a major pattern change, which seems to be in place for, at least, the next couple of weeks. Upper Air winds are rather strong for this time of the year, IMO....more signs of an early Fall and a strong East Coast season. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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Re: No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:37 pm

if the pattern remains as is, I may have to be on the lookout come late August through september
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Re: No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

#3 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Jul 25, 2007 7:30 am

Hurricaneman wrote:if the pattern remains as is, I may have to be on the lookout come late August through september


Wouldn't surprise me, although, I think it will be more likely to be September or early October. Time will tell.
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Re: No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

#4 Postby caneman » Wed Jul 25, 2007 7:32 am

Have yo useen the GOm today?
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Re: No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

#5 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Jul 25, 2007 7:38 am

caneman wrote:Have yo useen the GOm today?


Yes, looks like there is a blob heading towards Mexico...maybe it will be a depression. And the sheer is still prevalent on the Northern half of the gulf...I hope the pattern brings us some more moisture in New Orleans. I believe it will over the weekend.
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#6 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:41 pm

What a great pattern in the Northern GOM....killing it all. Still, we are expecting increased shower chances over the next few days into the weekend in Greater New Orleans. I'm all for it...keeps the temps down. Tropical weather??...Likley, IMO, but, anything significant?? Come on, look at that sheer I've been talking about...it's classic. No signs of life in the GOM possible.
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Re: No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

#7 Postby inda_iwall » Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:43 pm

Im with ya Sean, gotta low the shear. Nothing brewing for a while, hopefully we never hit a "c" storm, I think it is funny watching everyone wishcast and the *poof* the blob is gone
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#8 Postby Normandy » Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:45 pm

You cant say no development in the gulf of mexico and then go ahead and admit that the disturbance in the gulf right now could become a Tropical Depression. Its either one or the other, you can't have a TD develop in a "no tropical development zone" that you proclaim.

Now as for your analysis....really you are vastly overestimating the shear pattern in the GOM. The northern GOM is unfavorable, but the southern half (including most of the BOC) is under an upper level anti-cyclone, and the tropical wave passing the Yucatan does have a decent shot at developing as the upper air environment is more favorable then it is now (which is why the disturbance you say might develop into a TD likely wont).
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Re:

#9 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:09 pm

Normandy wrote:You cant say no development in the gulf of mexico and then go ahead and admit that the disturbance in the gulf right now could become a Tropical Depression. Its either one or the other, you can't have a TD develop in a "no tropical development zone" that you proclaim.

Now as for your analysis....really you are vastly overestimating the shear pattern in the GOM. The northern GOM is unfavorable, but the southern half (including most of the BOC) is under an upper level anti-cyclone, and the tropical wave passing the Yucatan does have a decent shot at developing as the upper air environment is more favorable then it is now (which is why the disturbance you say might develop into a TD likely wont).


Yes I can and I did. If you read my posts on another thread about this "blob of clouds," I clearly stated that the Southern GOM could easily see a depression. However, I've changed my opinion seeing the system get caught up in the sheer. Tropical weather is likely, even in New Orleans, this weekend, but, I don't see development possible. I can't deny sheer when I see it. But, there is no sheer in the Bay of Campeche, so, if something goes there, development could occur, but, unless it heads west into Mexico, it is a doomed system. Obviously, this is only my opinion, but, on this forum, we are allowed to state such, and, looking at the latest statements from the NHC, they are seeing the exact same thing I have been seeing. That's just the way it is. If I see anything different, during this time of the year, I'll state such on this forum. I've been doing it during tropical season for the last four years here. I have a tendency to appear here during the active time...I love the tropics and this is the place to be. During the rest of the year, I make very small and/or brief appearances. But, the time is coming and I'm here again and I'm stating my opinion. Not to brag, but. look at my history, and I'm generally correct, but, not always.....I clocked Rita three days out to Cameron Parish/Lake Charles, when everybody else thought Texas, S. of Houston.
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#10 Postby Normandy » Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:26 pm

^Usually your right? Please, don't get arrogant. For every storm youve called im sure there is 10 youve busted on.

And, its MY opinion that you shouldn't be able to make a topic headed "No Development in the GOM For some time now" and then admit that a TD could form and that the BOC could support a tropical system. Tropical weather is likely in NEw Orleans? What does that mean? Tropical storms are likely in New Orleans? Tropical downpours? Tropical Waves? If what you are saying is true, then NOTHING Tropical in New Orleans is likely for a while (Just like your header states). Of course you can always be right when you never leave yourself the option of being wrong.

As far as the system in the gulf, its didn't catch up with any shear...its always been under shear since it left the Yucatan as it is cathing some UL winds on the western side of the Upper Level Anti-cyclone currently over the SE Gulf.

And while im at it, let me give you some advice when you make a bold forecast that something won't develop for "some time now." Post some support. In your case, it would be wind shear charts, model predictions as far as ridging and troughing goes, etc etc. Don't post the Gulf of Mexico AVN loop as support for a claim stating that "The GOM won't see development for some time." That proves nothing, only that conditions are somewhat hostile RIGHT now. Poster that I have seen do this well are SouthFloridaWx (Think thats his name? Might be mistaken) and other mets such as Jeff, Wxman57 and others. They provide data that supports their argument and is relevant....just some constructive criticism, take it as you may.
Last edited by Normandy on Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby rockyman » Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:30 pm

Are we still doing "disclaimers"? If so, the lead-off entry definitely needs the disclaimer. If not, the lead-off entry definitely needs the disclaimer anyway :)
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Re: No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

#12 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:35 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:
caneman wrote:Have yo useen the GOm today?


Yes, looks like there is a blob heading towards Mexico...maybe it will be a depression. And the sheer is still prevalent on the Northern half of the gulf...I hope the pattern brings us some more moisture in New Orleans. I believe it will over the weekend.



It doesn't look like it's headed toward Mexico per the "latest" satellite loop.
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Re: Re:

#13 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:39 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:
Normandy wrote:You cant say no development in the gulf of mexico and then go ahead and admit that the disturbance in the gulf right now could become a Tropical Depression. Its either one or the other, you can't have a TD develop in a "no tropical development zone" that you proclaim.

Now as for your analysis....really you are vastly overestimating the shear pattern in the GOM. The northern GOM is unfavorable, but the southern half (including most of the BOC) is under an upper level anti-cyclone, and the tropical wave passing the Yucatan does have a decent shot at developing as the upper air environment is more favorable then it is now (which is why the disturbance you say might develop into a TD likely wont).


Yes I can and I did. If you read my posts on another thread about this "blob of clouds," I clearly stated that the Southern GOM could easily see a depression. However, I've changed my opinion seeing the system get caught up in the sheer. Tropical weather is likely, even in New Orleans, this weekend, but, I don't see development possible. I can't deny sheer when I see it. But, there is no sheer in the Bay of Campeche, so, if something goes there, development could occur, but, unless it heads west into Mexico, it is a doomed system. Obviously, this is only my opinion, but, on this forum, we are allowed to state such, and, looking at the latest statements from the NHC, they are seeing the exact same thing I have been seeing. That's just the way it is. If I see anything different, during this time of the year, I'll state such on this forum. I've been doing it during tropical season for the last four years here. I have a tendency to appear here during the active time...I love the tropics and this is the place to be. During the rest of the year, I make very small and/or brief appearances. But, the time is coming and I'm here again and I'm stating my opinion. Not to brag, but. look at my history, and I'm generally correct, but, not always.....I clocked Rita three days out to Cameron Parish/Lake Charles, when everybody else thought Texas, S. of Houston.


Maybe I'm crazy but I've seen several tropical storms develop in some very "hostile (shear)" conditions in the GOM in the past. It "can" happen sometimes. I still wouldn't write this off at all.
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Re:

#14 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:41 pm

Normandy wrote:^Usually your right? Please, don't get arrogant. For every storm youve called im sure there is 10 youve busted on.

And, its MY opinion that you shouldn't be able to make a topic headed "No Development in the GOM For some time now" and then admit that a TD could form and that the BOC could support a tropical system. Tropical weather is likely in NEw Orleans? What does that mean? Tropical storms are likely in New Orleans? Tropical downpours? Tropical Waves? If what you are saying is true, then NOTHING Tropical in New Orleans is likely for a while (Just like your header states). Of course you can always be right when you never leave yourself the option of being wrong.

As far as the system in the gulf, its didn't catch up with any shear...its always been under shear since it left the Yucatan as it is cathing some UL winds on the western side of the Upper Level Anti-cyclone currently over the SE Gulf.

And while im at it, let me give you some advice when you make a bold forecast that something won't develop for "some time now." Post some support. In your case, it would be wind shear charts, model predictions as far as ridging and troughing goes, etc etc. Don't post the Gulf of Mexico AVN loop as support for a claim stating that "The GOM won't see development for some time." That proves nothing, only that conditions are somewhat hostile RIGHT now. Poster that I have seen do this well are SouthFloridaWx (Think thats his name? Might be mistaken) and other mets such as Jeff, Wxman57 and others. They provide data that supports their argument and is relevant....just some constructive criticism, take it as you may.



I've got to agree with your post Normandy
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Re:

#15 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:54 pm

Normandy wrote:^Usually your right? Please, don't get arrogant. For every storm youve called im sure there is 10 youve busted on.

And, its MY opinion that you shouldn't be able to make a topic headed "No Development in the GOM For some time now" and then admit that a TD could form and that the BOC could support a tropical system. Tropical weather is likely in NEw Orleans? What does that mean? Tropical storms are likely in New Orleans? Tropical downpours? Tropical Waves? If what you are saying is true, then NOTHING Tropical in New Orleans is likely for a while (Just like your header states). Of course you can always be right when you never leave yourself the option of being wrong.

As far as the system in the gulf, its didn't catch up with any shear...its always been under shear since it left the Yucatan as it is cathing some UL winds on the western side of the Upper Level Anti-cyclone currently over the SE Gulf.

And while im at it, let me give you some advice when you make a bold forecast that something won't develop for "some time now." Post some support. In your case, it would be wind shear charts, model predictions as far as ridging and troughing goes, etc etc. Don't post the Gulf of Mexico AVN loop as support for a claim stating that "The GOM won't see development for some time." That proves nothing, only that conditions are somewhat hostile RIGHT now. Poster that I have seen do this well are SouthFloridaWx (Think thats his name? Might be mistaken) and other mets such as Jeff, Wxman57 and others. They provide data that supports their argument and is relevant....just some constructive criticism, take it as you may.


I'm not arrogant...I'm as real as any poster could be. I'm being honest now and have been honest in all of my posts. On this very thread someone questioned what the GOM looked like this morning, and if the system didn't catch the sheer by moving North, it very well could have become a depression in the Bay of Campeche this morning if it would have continued West. It blew up. There is one thing I can guarantee you...you will never find me being arrogant in my posts..I only state my opinion. I could be wrong any time. I'm stating it now. However, I'm humbled in my approach, but, state my opinion. When I'm right, I will claim to it, as I have done with Rita, and when I'm wrong, I will claim to it, as I did with Katrina....I thought the eye would go over New Orleans and it went East by about 35 miles. It's all just my opinion and I admit that. But, I see sheer in the N. GOM right now and I don't see it disappearing for some time. I have a right to state that on this forum. I admit I'm an amateur, but, I also admit, that, as an amateur, I've studied world cloud patterns for the last 25 years for a hobby. And I love to see and read other's opinions, but, that doesn't mean I need to be ridiculed in any way because of my opinon. Let's have fun...the season is just around the corner.
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#16 Postby Normandy » Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:02 pm

The problem is your reasoning for this not becoming a depression is just....well wrong imo. Had this continued west, it STILL would have not become a depression because it would have run into shear....the upper level anti-cyclone over the gulf is leaving a favorable slot for development in the extreme eastern portion of the BOC, next to the yucatan. Anything further west and north would get more hostile. And it never really blew up...it in fact has its depeest convection right now...and even still there is just no Low level evidence to suggest this had ANY chance of becoming anything really...the low level flow was anti-cyclonic and any vorticity was in the midlevels, and that couldn't mix down to the surface because of the unfavorable conditions the wave faced.

My thing is this, I won't usually single a person out unless I feel theyve done womething wrong...well not even necesarilly wrong just did it in a manner that could have been done better. Your first post really did not help your case, and you provided no proof really...and when I stated an opinion that differed thats when you got snippy. And when that happens with me, things tend to get bad because I have a slight temper. If you post something without any sound data to back it up, usually people will question your post..
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Re:

#17 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:07 pm

Normandy wrote:The problem is your reasoning for this not becoming a depression is just....well wrong imo. Had this continued west, it STILL would have not become a depression because it would have run into shear....the upper level anti-cyclone over the gulf is leaving a favorable slot for development in the extreme eastern portion of the BOC, next to the yucatan. Anything further west and north would get more hostile. And it never really blew up...it in fact has its depeest convection right now...and even still there is just no Low level evidence to suggest this had ANY chance of becoming anything really...the low level flow was anti-cyclonic and any vorticity was in the midlevels, and that couldn't mix down to the surface because of the unfavorable conditions the wave faced.

My thing is this, I won't usually single a person out unless I feel theyve done womething wrong...well not even necesarilly wrong just did it in a manner that could have been done better. Your first post really did not help your case, and you provided no proof really...and when I stated an opinion that differed thats when you got snippy. And when that happens with me, things tend to get bad because I have a slight temper. If you post something without any sound data to back it up, usually people will question your post..

That's cool. I love it. I think the Bay of Campeche has no sheer...we differ. It's all good. But, I wonder why you say I gave no proof??? I gave a link to a satellite loop of the GOM complete with obvious sheer and NO sheer in the Bay of Campeche. What more do you want?
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Re: No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

#18 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:14 pm

Yes, there is a anticyclone over the north coast of the Yucatan. However, the disturbance located in the west gulf is experiencing a bit of shear. As this system moves in a northward direction shear is going to increase over it. I doubt anything comes of this system, shear is too high. It will however bring a good bit of rain to the upper Texas coast and western Louisiana.....MGC
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Re: No Development in GOM for Some Time Now...

#19 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:17 pm

MGC wrote:Yes, there is a anticyclone over the north coast of the Yucatan. However, the disturbance located in the west gulf is experiencing a bit of shear. As this system moves in a northward direction shear is going to increase over it. I doubt anything comes of this system, shear is too high. It will however bring a good bit of rain to the upper Texas coast and western Louisiana.....MGC

I agree, but, I think the moisture could spread to SE Louisiana and EVEN the MS Coast over the weekend through enhanced thunderstorm activity with chances of very heavy downpours and increased chances of waterspouts over the coastal waters.
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#20 Postby Normandy » Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:20 pm

Sean, your post its titled "No Development in the GOM for some time now."

If I were to make a post stating that "Hurricane BlahBlah won't move west for some time now" I would show a InfraRed sat loop showing its progression over 4 hours. If I make a post stating that "Hurricane BlahBlah won't experience shear for some time now" I won't show an InfraRed Sat Loop showing the conditions it has been experiencing the past 4 hours. And, likewise, if I made a post stating that "The GOM won't see Development for some time now" I won't just post an IR loop showing the picture of the GoM for 4 hours.

Provide model runs....show shear tendency charts....do something. Don't just show me a IR loop and expect people to believe you. And agian, the BOC does have shear in it. That disturbance was in the BOC this morning and guess what, it was getting sheared.
Last edited by Normandy on Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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