Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[Hurricaneman]

I personally think that is something to watch within the next 5 to 7 days

[Sean in New Orleans]

IMO, this tropical wave will fizzle or roam into Mexico. It's not out of the realm that it could become a depression before it slides into Mexico, though, IMO. It'll track across the Bay of Campeche if it lives or it will evaporate into the jet stream.

[flwxwatcher]

I personally think that is something to watch within the next 5 to 7 days

Lets see if this pans out. Run the animation and lets see if the Northern Gulf Coast has a cyclone threat in the 6-7 day range. It will be interesting to see what kind of track record this experimental project has this season.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... ecast.html

[tailgater]

TIME SENSITIVE
Can someone tell me what this is moving SW out the Eastern GOM towards the SW GOM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-jsl.html
Here's a low level wind chart.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF.

[xironman]

Interesting ship report on the other side of the Yucatan this morning

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0800 17.30 -84.70 27 49 40 20.0 - 4.9 5.0 - - 29.83 -0.12 80.6 87.8

[DrewFL]

...ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GULF OF MEXICO...

INITIALIZATION AND EARLY HRS OF THE FCST INDICATE THE NAM IS TOO
STRONG WITH ITS ENERGY THAT IT BRINGS NWD THRU THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE CANADIAN GLBL IS THE ONLY OTHER MODEL TO SHOW A WELL
DEFINED FEATURE... AND IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE WITH FEATURES OF
TROPICAL ORIGIN. THEREFORE RECOMMEND COMBINING THE IDEAS OF
GFS/UKMET/12Z ECMWF SOLNS.

RAUSCH

MODEL BIASES AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


Sounds like they're trying to throw out a warm-core surface low in favor of a cold mid to upper at this time.

[tailgater]

Back to bed, but I don't normally predict chances of development, I'll just say this sytem does look like it will form some sort of Low fairly soon.

[caneman]

This area does look like it wants to come together. Also keep an eye on NW CArrib to se if that beomces dominate or merges with this. If we get some persistance in these hot waters, it could be trouble.

[Nimbus]

I agree about the current shear northwest of the Yucatan being a limiting factor. The models that are bringing energy north out of the BOC are only developing a depression or weak TS, not that Texas needs any more rain.

The ship report on the east side of the Yucatan is interesting.
There is convection forming close to the center of the anticyclone ULH. That orientation usually provides better outflow and less shear.

[caneman]

I agree about the current shear northwest of the Yucatan being a limiting factor. The models that are bringing energy north out of the BOC are only developing a depression or weak TS, not that Texas needs any more rain.

The ship report on the east side of the Yucatan is interesting.
There is convection forming close to the center of the anticyclone ULH. That orientation usually provides better outflow and less shear.

Yeah, I'm becoming more concerned with NW Caribb. Look at those popcorn thunderstorms.

[xironman]

The NW Caribb. disturbance is the remnant of the old naked swirl that came off Africa long ago, I probably should have posted the ship report in a different thread.

[caneman]

xironman, gave the wrong person credit for the ship report. Sorry. They've usually very inacurrate though. Hwoever, I did find it interested that they showed a .12 drop.

[ronjon]

This is the area to watch this weekend and early next week. The overdone NAM develops a 1008 mb low that moves north toward the Tx/La coast. GFS shows some vorticity w/o a closed low and brings the disturbed weather into SE La and then has it slowly sliding along the gulf coast eastward following all the way down off the FL big bend in the NE GOM by Tuesday next week. Mean while, the east coast trough restrengthens over the weekend and drops a broad surface low into the SE US - this added kick of baroclinic energy may get something started from whatever remains of this system in the eastern GOM next week if this convection does not develop in the western GOM prior to moving into Tx/La.

[Cookiely]

Now I would say that these are extremely healthy looking blobs in the GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

shear is on the decrease over the entire BOC and western gulf that wont be a major player

we have to wave that in ver close proximity to each other and the one entering the yucutan maybe the energy needed to get this going later today and tomorrow.

this should be the only thread on the area now that both waves are in that same general area.

[tailgater]

shear is on the decrease over the entire BOC and western gulf that wont be a major player

we have to wave that in ver close proximity to each other and the one entering the yucutan maybe the energy needed to get this going later today and tomorrow.

this should be the only thread on the area now that both waves are in that same general area.

Not to be too picky but this area is not really part of that wave before it, some energy that has trailed it since it was in the central Caribbean and yes it does seem that the 2 features will join. the question I have, is will there be a low for all this moisture to be drawn into.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif
Hey SE texas at least you don't have to worry about wild fires.

[wxman57]

I have just a few minutes to give my thoughts on the topic (of which there appears to be about 3-5 separate threads). We've been tracking two waves since Africa. One wave is now in the SW Gulf/BoC, the other is approaching the Yucatan. So there are two separate systems. The first wave will likely move ashore into northern MX/TX in the next 36 hours, so it won't have any time to get organized.

The second wave approaching the Yucatan won't likely develop in the NW Caribbean, but we'll have to keep an eye on it in the BoC/SW Gulf by Friday/Saturday. It'll likely take the same track as the wave ahead of it, toward northern MX and/or south TX. I think there's at least a chance it could get a little spin going before it moves ashore into MX/TX over the weekend or very early next week, but there doesn't appear to be enough time for significant organization (strong TS or stronger). Maybe a TD or a questionable TS before it moves inland. Chances of that aren't great, maybe 20%, but it's the greatest chance for any development that I've seen in the past month.

The biggest risk from these two systems will be more heavy rain for Texas. I was reading yesterday that Victoria has received over 52" of rain so far this year. That's 30" above normal! And lots more to come. Texas will need to change its motto to "The land of one big lake" (copying Minnesota's "land of 10,000 lakes").

[Aric Dunn]

shear is on the decrease over the entire BOC and western gulf that wont be a major player

we have to wave that in ver close proximity to each other and the one entering the yucutan maybe the energy needed to get this going later today and tomorrow.

this should be the only thread on the area now that both waves are in that same general area.

Not to be too picky but this area is not really part of that wave before it, some energy that has trailed it since it was in the central Caribbean and yes it does seem that the 2 features will join. the question I have, is will there be a low for all this moisture to be drawn into.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif
Hey SE texas at least you don't have to worry about wild fires.

say what? not to be picky? about what exactly?

[Aric Dunn]

I have just a few minutes to give my thoughts on the topic (of which there appears to be about 3-5 separate threads). We've been tracking two waves since Africa. One wave is now in the SW Gulf/BoC, the other is approaching the Yucatan. So there are two separate systems. The first wave will likely move ashore into northern MX/TX in the next 36 hours, so it won't have any time to get organized.

The second wave approaching the Yucatan won't likely develop in the NW Caribbean, but we'll have to keep an eye on it in the BoC/SW Gulf by Friday/Saturday. It'll likely take the same track as the wave ahead of it, toward northern MX and/or south TX. I think there's at least a chance it could get a little spin going before it moves ashore into MX/TX over the weekend or very early next week, but there doesn't appear to be enough time for significant organization (strong TS or stronger). Maybe a TD or a questionable TS before it moves inland. Chances of that aren't great, maybe 20%, but it's the greatest chance for any development that I've seen in the past month.

The biggest risk from these two systems will be more heavy rain for Texas. I was reading yesterday that Victoria has received over 52" of rain so far this year. That's 30" above normal! And lots more to come. Texas will need to change its motto to "The land of one big lake" (copying Minnesota's "land of 10,000 lakes").

i agree except i dont not belive that the current BLOB in the BOC is going to move as west as you are thinking .. i will be a more NW motion keeping and the other wave entering the Yucatan in close proximty to each other.. but i do agree either way a hurricane is not likely (but never out of the question becasue it can intesify fast) not really enough time for that.

[wxman57]

I have just a few minutes to give my thoughts on the topic (of which there appears to be about 3-5 separate threads). We've been tracking two waves since Africa. One wave is now in the SW Gulf/BoC, the other is approaching the Yucatan. So there are two separate systems. The first wave will likely move ashore into northern MX/TX in the next 36 hours, so it won't have any time to get organized.

The second wave approaching the Yucatan won't likely develop in the NW Caribbean, but we'll have to keep an eye on it in the BoC/SW Gulf by Friday/Saturday. It'll likely take the same track as the wave ahead of it, toward northern MX and/or south TX. I think there's at least a chance it could get a little spin going before it moves ashore into MX/TX over the weekend or very early next week, but there doesn't appear to be enough time for significant organization (strong TS or stronger). Maybe a TD or a questionable TS before it moves inland. Chances of that aren't great, maybe 20%, but it's the greatest chance for any development that I've seen in the past month.

The biggest risk from these two systems will be more heavy rain for Texas. I was reading yesterday that Victoria has received over 52" of rain so far this year. That's 30" above normal! And lots more to come. Texas will need to change its motto to "The land of one big lake" (copying Minnesota's "land of 10,000 lakes").

i agree except i dont not belive that the current BLOB in the BOC is going to move as west as you are thinking .. i will be a more NW motion keeping and the other wave entering the Yucatan in close proximty to each other.. but i do agree either way a hurricane is not likely (but never out of the question becasue it can intesify fast) not really enough time for that.

I said northern MX and TX for the current storms in SW Gulf/BoC. That IS northwest. Where did I say "west" above?