Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[Aric Dunn]

I have just a few minutes to give my thoughts on the topic (of which there appears to be about 3-5 separate threads). We've been tracking two waves since Africa. One wave is now in the SW Gulf/BoC, the other is approaching the Yucatan. So there are two separate systems. The first wave will likely move ashore into northern MX/TX in the next 36 hours, so it won't have any time to get organized.

The second wave approaching the Yucatan won't likely develop in the NW Caribbean, but we'll have to keep an eye on it in the BoC/SW Gulf by Friday/Saturday. It'll likely take the same track as the wave ahead of it, toward northern MX and/or south TX. I think there's at least a chance it could get a little spin going before it moves ashore into MX/TX over the weekend or very early next week, but there doesn't appear to be enough time for significant organization (strong TS or stronger). Maybe a TD or a questionable TS before it moves inland. Chances of that aren't great, maybe 20%, but it's the greatest chance for any development that I've seen in the past month.

The biggest risk from these two systems will be more heavy rain for Texas. I was reading yesterday that Victoria has received over 52" of rain so far this year. That's 30" above normal! And lots more to come. Texas will need to change its motto to "The land of one big lake" (copying Minnesota's "land of 10,000 lakes").

i agree except i dont not belive that the current BLOB in the BOC is going to move as west as you are thinking .. i will be a more NW motion keeping and the other wave entering the Yucatan in close proximty to each other.. but i do agree either way a hurricane is not likely (but never out of the question becasue it can intesify fast) not really enough time for that.

I said northern MX and TX for the current storms in SW Gulf/BoC. That IS northwest. Where did I say "west" above?

oh just missread.. oopps..

[tailgater]

shear is on the decrease over the entire BOC and western gulf that wont be a major player

we have to wave that in ver close proximity to each other and the one entering the yucutan maybe the energy needed to get this going later today and tomorrow.

this should be the only thread on the area now that both waves are in that same general area.

Not to be too picky but this area is not really part of that wave before it, some energy that has trailed it since it was in the central Caribbean and yes it does seem that the 2 features will join. the question I have, is will there be a low for all this moisture to be drawn into.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif
Hey SE texas at least you don't have to worry about wild fires.

say what? not to be picky? about what exactly?[/quote
I was refering to the blob in the BOC not actually being the wave that was 97L, TAFB shows that wave well inland in Mexico.

[cpdaman]

ARic i think what you may have been getting at is

the disturbance over the NW/caribean yucatan right now is further NE than the one in SE gulf/BOC that is obvious

for this disturbance (Nw carib/Yuc) to track to the same positon as the one in the SE/gulf boc (which is toward N/mexico texas) , this would be nearly DUE WEST movement for the yucatan system

or in other words Wxman calls for the BOC /SW gulf blob to move NW into N mexico/texas area , obviously the blob NE (over YUC/nw caribean) would have to take a westward direction to end up where a system starting from a further SW position ( i.e BOC /sw gulf blob)is forecast to end up

or maybe i am mistaken (quite possible) and the blob over the YUC/NW carib is obviously moving west, while the system in the BOC is the only one going NW ?

[Aric Dunn]

Just do say this again.. shear should not be a problem with this system!!! at least not for the next 2 days.. and may end up being quite favorable after that.. upper ridge building over top of the system now as the ULL drops Sw over mexico.. at least for the short term (24hrs Shear is low and should drop even more) condistion appear favorable.

[jasons2k]

If you feel the need to post SO many times can you at the very least proofread first?

[Praxus]

Ok I think there's about 5 blobs on the go here, which (if any) could develop?

[Aric Dunn]

If you feel the need to post SO many times can you at the very least proofread first?

nah
i type how i type
and i do proof read a little but dont catch everything and honestly dont care
can you figure out what it say ? if so than it does not matter if there is a comma splice or a misspelling or even a dangling modifyer. dont read my post if you dont like the way I type


and thats off topic

but anyway
i know the system are seperate i though i mentioned that! and i do agree with wxman that the BOC is still at a minimum a piece of the southern part of what was 97L

[margaritabeach]

If you feel the need to post SO many times can you at the very least proofread first?

I believe proof-read is hyphenated.... : )

[punkyg]

Ok I think there's about 5 blobs on the go here, which (if any) could develop?

I say the blob south of cuba or the blob close to mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

If you feel the need to post SO many times can you at the very least proofread first?

I believe proof-read is hyphenated.... : )

lol

[jasons2k]

If you feel the need to post SO many times can you at the very least proofread first?

I believe proof-read is hyphenated.... : )

Sorry........but it's not

http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/proofread

[Aric Dunn]

Image centered at Latitude= 19.09° N Longitude= 95.74° W (X=153 Y=377)

full zoom 8 images

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


aaawww look at the little swirl its so happy

just though i post that and say before someone say that we have a closed low!! but its just a small vorticy ) that is moving N into the convection but does not mean anything

[margaritabeach]

If you feel the need to post SO many times can you at the very least proofread first?

I believe proof-read is hyphenated.... : )

Sorry........but it's not

http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/proofread

you say tomAto...I say tomAWto... http://www.askoxford.com/concise_oed/proofread?view=uk

anyways...we now return you to your regularly scheduled blob watching program

[wxman57]

Image centered at Latitude= 19.09° N Longitude= 95.74° W (X=153 Y=377)

full zoom 8 images

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


aaawww look at the little swirl its so happy

just though i post that and say before someone say that we have a closed low!! but its just a small vorticy ) that is moving N into the convection but does not mean anything

I'd call it a convection-free micro eddy near 19.2N/95.9W, right off the coast of MX. Certainly nothing to focus on. The area to watch is around 19.7N/93.9W in the central BoC. No LLC developing there now, but something to keep track of. Should move ashore before it has time to get organized.

[drezee]

I love buoys...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

winds are sustained 29 kts 10-minute average... gusting to TS force...but....

That is an outflow boundary!

1. the wind was a dramatic increase
2. pressure rose 1mb with passage
3. Air Temp crashed
4. 90 degree change in direction of wind

[tailgater]

Will it get a mention in the next TWO and if so what?
57 Your weekend isn't looking to good, wet if nothing else.

[Aric Dunn]

Image centered at Latitude= 19.09° N Longitude= 95.74° W (X=153 Y=377)

full zoom 8 images

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


aaawww look at the little swirl its so happy

just though i post that and say before someone say that we have a closed low!! but its just a small vorticy ) that is moving N into the convection but does not mean anything

I'd call it a convection-free micro eddy near 19.2N/95.9W, right off the coast of MX. Certainly nothing to focus on. The area to watch is around 19.7N/93.9W in the central BoC. No LLC developing there now, but something to keep track of. Should move ashore before it has time to get organized.

thats why i posted that.. so no one focuses on it!
I beleive that convection will continue to refire and stay offshore longer

[drezee]

25/14 42055 22.0 -94.0 26.1 24.1 180 29 G 35 180 35 1013.6 1.1 29.3 1.0 5 42055


Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (CDT) WSPD WDIR
8:46 am 32.2 kts S ( 180 deg true )

[HURAKAN]

Both areas of interest.

[wxman57]

Here's a high-res sat pic with surface obs plotted. Nothing there now but a couple of squalls. But it is actually something to keep an eye on, not as low a chance of development as previous disturbances.