New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR

[Sanibel]

BOC is interesting. We'll see if it forms today. This will tell us how "ripe" the environment is. Shear seems to have slackened in that area.

Look at the surface clouds from the tropical flow as they enter the Gulf. They bend down towards BOC instead of up and into recurve as usual. Could be the BOC system pulling it in? (ie formation)

[rockyman]

Hey, Sanibel! I was just noticing the same thing...this is the first system since Barry that has interested me enough to post comments...

Question for the group: Would someone be so kind as to post the link to the steering maps page? (the page showing the steering flow at different levels of the atmosphere)...I lost many of my bookmarks after a computer crash (damn you, Bill Gates, haha)

[Steve]

>>Question for the group: Would someone be so kind as to post the link to the steering maps page? (the page showing the steering flow at different levels of the atmosphere)...I lost many of my bookmarks after a computer crash (damn you, Bill Gates, haha)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

[Steve]

Btw, the 12z nam is pretty much finished. The operational reduces any intensity and does a double "blob" thing first to the Houston area and then to the Lake Charles area.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Precipitation run for "total in 60 hours" isn't complete yet, but the rain piles up off the SE TX and SW LA Coasts:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

FWIW

Steve

[Rainband]

I thought that model wasn't good for tropical systems?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I thought that model wasn't good for tropical systems?

I am under the impression that it isn't, especially the new WRF that has replaced the ETA as the NAM.


IIRC, it is somewhat like the Canadian in being over-eager to develop systems. Don't think it has really been tested yet for developed systems near the US, as it is only a bit over a year old and we didn't have any really close calls last year.

[srainhoutx]

AFD update this late morning from HOU/GAL is "hinting" that they may have to rethink this system...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 251522
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1022 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. JUST AN FYI...CURRENT 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO FORECAST
SOMETHING TROPICAL LOOKING OUT OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...BUT 06Z GFS ISNT. STILL LIKING THE GFS SCENARIO AS
OF NOW BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE IF 12Z RUN DIFFERS.

tonight through Sunday "could" get very interesting for SE TX / SW LA if there is some consensus with different model runs.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't see a hint of any kind of circulation, but it is an impressive looking blob as seen on this NASA hand crafted visible close-up loop of the Bay of Campeche

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wish they'd run SHIPS or GFDL. It seems to me that a GFDL run will lose a system, even one that eventually develops, until a day or so of it actually being classified, and if SHIPs is initialized with a 20 kt depression and only gets it to 30 knots in 5 days, it is a good sign that conditions aren't favorable for development, whereas if SHIPS shows increased intensity with each time increment, it is a suggestion that things are favorable.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks more like a rainmaker for Texas.

[TexWx]

Yep

good thing I mowed yesterday

[Air Force Met]

Looks more like a rainmaker for Texas.

Probably the more likely scenario. Chances of tropical cyclone formation are there...but low (I give it 30%). But...given the upper low to the west and the huge amount of tropical moisture working its way north? I think Texas and LA are in for a lot of rain...potentially more than the 12Z NAM is calling for (which is 5-9" or the period). I think the HPC QPF is WAY under done (5 day totals are only 3-4" for the max).

It's perfect for some nocturnal rains Thu and Fri with deep tropical moisture and great dynamics....plus it doesn't look like storm motion will be that quick.

So...mow your yard now if you live in Texas...if you can that is.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Major flooding on Trinity River in Liberty County, just Northeast of Houston, with NWS statement saying flood waters are now covering much of the county.

If the heavy rains stay out of North Texas, where the Trinity runs, the flooding shouldn't get too much worse, I'd guess.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm glad we were able to dry out before this mess moves in..

[Ptarmigan]

Probably the more likely scenario. Chances of tropical cyclone formation are there...but low (I give it 30%). But...given the upper low to the west and the huge amount of tropical moisture working its way north? I think Texas and LA are in for a lot of rain...potentially more than the 12Z NAM is calling for (which is 5-9" or the period). I think the HPC QPF is WAY under done (5 day totals are only 3-4" for the max).

It's perfect for some nocturnal rains Thu and Fri with deep tropical moisture and great dynamics....plus it doesn't look like storm motion will be that quick.

So...mow your yard now if you live in Texas...if you can that is.

The windsheer has lessened overt he Gulf. I still don't think it will develop. I do expect rain regardless, 3" to 5" easily. If we have nocturnal rains, I would not be surprised to see +10".

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks more like a rainmaker for Texas.

Probably the more likely scenario. Chances of tropical cyclone formation are there...but low (I give it 30%). But...given the upper low to the west and the huge amount of tropical moisture working its way north? I think Texas and LA are in for a lot of rain...potentially more than the 12Z NAM is calling for (which is 5-9" or the period). I think the HPC QPF is WAY under done (5 day totals are only 3-4" for the max).

It's perfect for some nocturnal rains Thu and Fri with deep tropical moisture and great dynamics....plus it doesn't look like storm motion will be that quick.

So...mow your yard now if you live in Texas...if you can that is.

By nocturnal rains, do you think a warm core system will develop inland, with core rains near the center at night, and more widely scattered storms away from the center during the day?

[Ptarmigan]

By nocturnal rains, do you think a warm core system will develop inland, with core rains near the center at night, and more widely scattered storms away from the center during the day?

That's what I would think.

[Sanibel]

Appears to be a rapid rotation visible just poking out from under the NE side of the main convection mass. Not sure which level though. Has signs of development. Movement uncertain.

[TexWx]

just noticing that as well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Appears to be a rapid rotation visible just poking out from under the NE side of the main convection mass. Not sure which level though. Has signs of development. Movement uncertain.

Can you guesstimate lat/long, cause I don't see it.