Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Aric,the next run of the GFS or any other models post them on the models thread here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96197&start=0

[Meso]

CMC is also showing this wave doing more than it was before...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[windstorm99]

CMC also showing development....

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,the next run of the GFS or any other models post them on the models thread here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96197&start=0

ok will do
and did already ..

[Sanibel]

Welp, 30W is way out there in the Atlantic. This could be our first wave that spins -BUT- then hits the disruptive Atlantic airmass clearing diving down on top of it in that diagonal wedge and wipes out. Or it will recurve way out and be an over-ocean system.

See if it flares tonight.

(Glad to see Aric identify the same surface feature I saw)

[Aric Dunn]

Welp, 30W is way out there in the Atlantic. This could be our first wave that spins -BUT- then hits the disruptive Atlantic airmass clearing diving down on top of it in that diagonal wedge and wipes out. Or it will recurve way out and be an over-ocean system.

See if it flares tonight.

(Glad to see Aric identify the same surface feature I saw)

yeah good eye.. you saw that earlier right?
i was waiting till i saw some more difinitive features before i said anything
but i think its safe to say we have a developing Low there
and i expect the Nhc to say something about today either in the 5:30 TWo or a little more in the TWD . dont think they will say much at 205 but may mention the possible low out there

[windstorm99]

You can see it coming into view here.

[Frank2]

A large area of strato-cu with the current wave, or, dry air to it's north...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Blown Away]

Will we have an invest soon? I hope so.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 16N38W 11N40W 5N40W MOVING W NEAR
13 KT. THIS WAVE WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE E BASED ON ITS
APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A BROAD
ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
36W-44W. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL.

2 PM Discussion from TPC.

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 11N35W 8N35W 9N43W 11N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST
OF AFRICA AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
28W-34W...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL
WAVE.


I think that the area that all are looking at is the one that they are talking about in the ITCZ paragraph.

[cheezyWXguy]

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 16N38W 11N40W 5N40W MOVING W NEAR
13 KT. THIS WAVE WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE E BASED ON ITS
APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A BROAD
ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
36W-44W. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL.

2 PM Discussion from TPC.

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 11N35W 8N35W 9N43W 11N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST
OF AFRICA AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
28W-34W...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL
WAVE.


I think that the area that all are looking at is the one that they are talking about in the ITCZ paragraph.

The 1st paragraph about the low level turning has to do with the large, elongated circulation ahead of our wave...however, in the 2nd paragraph the low-amplitude tropical wave is the one we are watching for development...BTW, what do they mean by low amplitude?

[Sanibel]

They mean low cloud tops (meaning weak).


I saw that broad Low out to its west just now as well. This one could be nothing at all, especially when it impacts that diagonal tongue of Atlantic air ahead of it.

[cheezyWXguy]

They mean low cloud tops (meaning weak).


I saw that broad Low out to its west just now as well. This one could be nothing at all, especially when it impacts that diagonal tongue of Atlantic air ahead of it.

Actually that "harsh Atlantic air" you're looking at is just weak to moderate SAL...It covers a large area, but isn't very strong

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
SAL map

[Bane]

Wow! The 12Z GFS develops two systems, a hurricane and tropical storm in the Atlantic over the next two weeks. Things look to get active very soon. The storm off the Carolina coast is this current east Atlantic system.

good thing it is 312 hours out. it'll change at least 20 times before i'll worry about it.

[windstorm99]

Wow! The 12Z GFS develops two systems, a hurricane and tropical storm in the Atlantic over the next two weeks. Things look to get active very soon. The storm off the Carolina coast is this current east Atlantic system.

good thing it is 312 hours out. it'll change at least 20 times before i'll worry about it.

Indeed its a long range forcast but to me the most important thing here is the change in the GFS actually takeing a system all the way across towards the eastcoast of the united states on this 12z run.Will it continue on the 18z we'll see.Adrian

[Normandy]

Wow this actually looks good right now

[HUC]

Yeah;something seems to change in this wave behaviour,right now!!!!

[canegrl04]

I am appalled at TWC's tropical updates .I tune into them once in awhile each day,and today they say NOTHING about what two models are indicating about the EasAtl. wave.Is Steve Lyon the only true hurricane knowledgable met they have? I don't like the lady with the glasses they have on today

[AnnularCane]

I am appalled at TWC's tropical updates .I tune into them once in awhile each day,and today they say NOTHING about what two models are indicating about the EasAtl. wave.Is Steve Lyon the only true hurricane knowledgable met they have? I don't like the lady with the glasses they have on today

Unfortunately, it's hard to get in much detail about the tropics in between Head-On commercials and...what's that other one they have? Slap On? Squeeze On? Something?

I can't remember the last time TWC went into that kind of detail. The days of John Hope are gone, unfortunately.

[Weatherfreak14]

Yeah;something seems to change in this wave behaviour,right now!!!!

Yes this wave is starting to look like trouble and i do not like how the models take it all the way to the east coast even though they are long range. Longe range are very inaccurate, but they hint something.