Signs of change from global models

[jaxfladude]

Jaxfladude says; "At least I am not the CMC model in the flesh!"

[Meso]

[Frank2]

It's never a good idea to put much in the long-range GFS runs - as others said, systems appear and disappear just as quickly...

It seems the pattern of troughs in the northeast continues, at least for now - highs in the moutains of northeast Georgia are only to be in the 70s the next few days...

[Aquawind]

Yes it's showing some low pressures holding together longer after they exit the African coast alrighty. THe GFS is looking like it is responding just like it does every year around this time. We will be watching something pretty soon and yes it could be one of those lows..

[boca]

Even if something where to develop it would most likely be a fish because of the persistent trough in the East. If this pattern continues thru August we might be lucky in regards of being protected, unlike 2004 and 2005.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS



I know that looking 16 days ahead is the worse thing to do in terms of seeing a model with a scenario of developing systems that far out.However,you can see patterns change in these long range runs.For example,the highs of Bermuda and Azores are not strong in the next 2 weeks according to the long range.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS



I know that looking 16 days ahead is the worse thing to do in terms of seeing a model with a scenario of developing systems that far out.However,you can see patterns change in these long range runs.For example,the highs of Bermuda and Azores are not strong in the next 2 weeks according to the long range.

Since the highs of Bermuda are not strong, does this mean that there will be more trof's over the east coast? Im not good at reading the model maps sorry.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

18z GFS



I know that looking 16 days ahead is the worse thing to do in terms of seeing a model with a scenario of developing systems that far out.However,you can see patterns change in these long range runs.For example,the highs of Bermuda and Azores are not strong in the next 2 weeks according to the long range.

Since the highs of Bermuda are not strong, does this mean that there will be more trof's over the east coast? Im not good at reading the model maps sorry.

<RICKY>

Ricky,what I mean't strong high pressures are from 1028 mbs+.According to the long range,the highs are going to be around the 1022mbs-1026 mbs range,less strong but sufficient to not let a system go fishing away.In terms of an east coast trough,still it's early to say that it will be absent or not as the patterns change constantly.

[margaritabeach]

rookie question:

How do you read the strengths of the lows the models show? This is from the 18z GFS 3 days out. Thanks!!

[wobblehead]

Please refer to forum rules regarding this post.

All conditons considered I feel fairly confident we will see some activity within the next week.

[Meso]

I know models aren't reliable far out,but it's always interesting to watch what they show,since some of them DO come true..

GFS @ 300 hours :
Landfall ahoy

GFS @ 384 hours :

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop



Give me other model inputs (NOGAPS,CMC,UKMET,EURO) like this GFS one and we will have game on in the Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the big reason for the change to the GFS was the fact that it was initialized with the low already in place! which is different from some of the previous runs

[cycloneye]

Is the first time that a model has a low moving all the way from the Central Atlantic to the East coast of the U.S.The other low that appears is almost at the end of the loop and that one goes to fish.

However,to believe that far out 16 days is like the Kansas City Royals winning the World Series.

[caneman]

12z CMC cranking one out now.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[dwg71]

I can tell we are bored.

There will be something sooner or later, nothing on the horizon yet.

[Meso]

What.... ? There is a good looking tropical wave out in the Atlantic which numerous models have been showing some development for a while.... Saying "nothing on the horizon" is not what I'd be saying... things are definitely worth keeping a close eye on

[skysummit]

What.... ? There is a good looking tropical wave out in the Atlantic which numerous models have been showing some development for a while.... Saying "nothing on the horizon" is not what I'd be saying... things are definitely worth keeping a close eye on

Yea...some are bored until there's a Cat 3 out there. Others just enjoy studying the tropics.

[caneman]

yep, hardly boring. First model agreement I believe we've seen out there.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS



Hello to NOGAPS that joins the combo ,although it only hints at something in that area,not shows a definitive thing developing.Let's see the 00z run from this always less agressive model to see if it still hints at something.